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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Top Dog - NHL System
TheEtrain send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 11/6/2011 11:07:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

11/6 PLAY

WINNIPEG +160  (3 UNITS) 

SEASON 14-17
+15.8 UNITS


11/7 PLAY

NYI +170 (4 UNITS)

SEASON 14-18
+12.8 UNITS
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#102
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:01:59 AM
Another loss only means we are that much closer to another large payday!
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#103
Posted: 11/7/2011 11:12:41 PM
NYI +170 (4 UNITS) 

SEASON 14-19
+8.8 UNITS
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#104
Posted: 11/7/2011 11:20:17 PM
11/8 PLAY

WIN +179 (8 UNITS)




ETRAIN - what wagering sequence are you using? ex.

GM 1:   I UNIT = loss
GM 2:  2 UNITS = loss
GM 3:  4 UNITS = loss
GM 4:  8 UNITS = loss
GM 5: 16 UNITS = how many games will you chase?

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#105
Posted: 11/7/2011 11:22:24 PM
Also COLORADO opened as another heavy favorite 150+...will closing lines be a consideration, or are we rolling with WINNY again?



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#106
Posted: 11/7/2011 11:25:14 PM
Whats up fellas...pretty simple system here
- I am going to play the biggest dog everyday of all the games
- Day 1 will be a 1 unit play (to risk) - I only use $5 for units
- If i lose day 1, then day 2 will be 2 units, lose day 2, then 3 will be 3 units.
-If I win a day, the next day will start back at 1 unit to risk

If we can win pretty much 1 out 4-5 games all year and avoid a 10 game losing streak, and win that occasional +240 juice game we will be successful come May.

2010-11 was +75 units
2009-10 was +7 units (had that damn 10 game L streak
2008-09 was +72 units
2007-08 was + 83 units

This system won't be for everyone as it is hard to stick to..at some point we WILL be on 6 game losing streak or so and game 7 will be betting on a terrible team (+250ish)...thats why I wouldn't play to high of units





Never mind, you answered the question in your first post
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#107
Posted: 11/8/2011 8:47:55 AM
QUOTE

@Green Machine...this is what i posted a few weeks ago...

Originally Posted by TheEtrain:

Guys, when Dutch asked about starting at the 3rd game it peaked my interested in looking at the numbers more in depth...This is going to be a long post so bare w me...


With the way we are currently playing this system, this is how it worked the last 4 years.
10-11: +75.94 units
09-10: +6.95 units
08-09: +73.92 units
07-08: +82.68 units
Including the 09-10 season the last 4 years averaged +59.87 units per year..not bad, but I don't like that 09-10 season in there.

After a couple hours of playing around...I feel like I have found the most effective way to make profit out of this system...

It is a bit more aggressive than I would like, but the results are nice..From now on after our 5th loss in a row, I will be putting 10 units on game 6, 15 units on game 7, 20 units on game 8, etc....again if you like the way it already it is don't change a thing....the following is how this new method has fared in the past 4 years

10-11: +135 units
09-10: +88 units
08-09: +162 units
07-08: +132 units

Of course unless you are some sort of high roller, I would use only $5 units...again this won't be for everyone, but I will take my chances...it is called gambling for a reason

PS ...I will post results to for both ways to see compare down the road...

Thanks to Dutch for giving me ideas to look at the data again

So, today 11/8 Play

Winnipeg +175 (5 units)

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#108
Posted: 11/8/2011 10:28:39 PM
Trying to get a solid understanding of your unit wagering system:

GM1: risk 1 unit
GM2: risk 2 units
GM3: risk 3 units
GM4: risk 4 units
GM5: risk 5 units
GM6: risk 10 units
GM7: risk 15 units
GM8: risk 20 units
GM9: risk 25 units
GM10: risk 30 units...total risked 115 units in a 10 game loss

(correct?)

Has the losing streak ever gone beyond 10 games?
What sources are you using for researching this system?






I would love to help tweak this thing so it's more predictable/profitable. 
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#109
Posted: 11/8/2011 10:29:54 PM
WINN +175 (5 UNITS) 















that was a close one!
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#110
Posted: 11/8/2011 10:48:51 PM
11/9 - GAME SIX (10 units)

Nashville @ +115






NOTE:  Current streak 0-5 (-15 UNITS).  Putting 10 more units on the line for a possible payout of 11.5 units.  If we win game 6, we gain 11.5 of the 15 units we lost during this chase for a net loss of 3.5 units - new chase starts.  Risking a total of 25 units for a possible payout of 11.5 units.
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#111
Posted: 11/9/2011 6:33:42 AM
Been following for about 10 days now . Good stuff . I have the Flyers as Top Dog at this time though .
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#112
Posted: 11/9/2011 9:24:44 AM
Opps now its  Nashville . Actually in all three games the top dog is a close call .
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#113
Posted: 11/9/2011 12:02:35 PM
That's exactly what I like about it...it's so easy to track.  You just play the best payout of the day, every day.
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#114
Posted: 11/9/2011 1:36:53 PM
days like today aren't ideal, with few games and all pretty much even odds...

I  am going with NAS +105 (10 units)
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#115
Posted: 11/9/2011 4:58:27 PM
Hopefully Legwand comes through for us this time around.
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#116
Posted: 11/9/2011 6:49:11 PM
darn it, I'm taking the puck line (-1) for 1/3 of my 10 units to increase potential gains while riding this flat dog.


NAS -1
+207 (3.3 units to win 8.83 units)
NAS +100 (6.6 units to win 6.6 units)


RISK 10 units for a potential payout of 15.43...instead of 10 = 10



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#117
Posted: 11/10/2011 5:26:11 AM
 
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#118
Posted: 11/10/2011 12:34:25 PM







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#119
Posted: 11/10/2011 12:38:49 PM
10 must be the magic number.  That's twice now that we've won a losing chase with a 10 unit bet.  Nashville pulled through for us...thank the lord sweet baby JESUS!  I did not want to have to lay $750 if they lost (that would have been my 15 unit bet - using $50 units...might be a good time to cut my units in half, down to $25 before this goes any further.


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#120
Posted: 11/10/2011 12:49:56 PM
11/10

TWO teams tied for top dog today...I am taking both:

EDM +164 (1 UNIT)
MIN +164 (1 UNIT)



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#121
Posted: 11/10/2011 1:34:23 PM
Thanks for keeping this thread on track Green...There isn't really a need for me to keep posting the plays daily, since they are obvious, so i will just update the season record after each "series" win...

Thru 11/9

15-20 +14.3 units

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#122
Posted: 11/10/2011 2:45:28 PM
It's your thread Etrain...I'm not taking it over - I just thought I'd help when I can and put my two cents to get your opinion/etc.  Are you playing both dogs tonight? 



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#123
Posted: 11/10/2011 6:06:34 PM
I`m on them both Green . Wish I would have had the balls to bet as much as you on Nashville .
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#124
Posted: 11/10/2011 6:09:12 PM

Thanks ETrain for sharing your system .

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#125
Posted: 11/11/2011 5:47:00 PM
11/10

TWO teams tied for top dog today...I am taking both:

EDM +164 (1 UNIT)
MIN +164 (1 UNIT)





11/11

OTT +160 (2 UNITS)
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