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Author:	[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Any thoughts on this chase idea..
Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#1 Posted: 7/8/2011 4:17:23 PM Parlay the 2 biggest baseball faves..Right now my guy has Boston -225 and Philly -170 ..Parlay the 2 for $10 to win $12.94. If it loses, move onto tomorrows to biggest faves for $20 etc. Bad idea? I'm going to try to keep track here in this thread. I will NOT be putting money on this. Just going to keep track.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#2 Posted: 7/9/2011 12:15:55 PM That A bet woud have been a winner. +$12.94 Todays A bet: Boston -190 & San Fran -175 $10 parlay pays $13.98
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bettor2win	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: M Resort \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2009 Posts: 2141 Location: California	#3 Posted: 7/9/2011 6:01:49 PM Ive actually thot of something like this. But I didnt see it panning out in my mind. The biggest reason is BECAUSE the linesmakers set Money Lines according to public perception. They are NOT neccessarily the best bets to win that day. Granted, taking Halliday is always a decent bet. But take a look @ Lackey this year. BOS is a play for you today. Lackey has been pummeled this year. But the Boston Offense is clicking. Prob a good play. as for SF, Lincecum has been lit up late too. But the NYM have not fire power @ this point. Withat being said...I hope u can get some good numbers outa this by trackin it. could help us all. Good Luck man.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#4 Posted: 7/10/2011 12:07:08 AM Thanks for the thoughts. I started kinda paying attention a few weeks ago and from what I could tell, a game 4 or D is as far as it got. A couple of reasons I like it is, it's easy to follow and it's always a + money bet. But I did a few serious searches and couldn't find any info on anyone else doing it, which made me think it is probably a loser. I also thought maybe the lines would get tighter later in the season and over-hyped teams would fall back and stop being big favorites.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#5 Posted: 7/10/2011 12:17:31 AM Boston -190 & San Fran -175 $10 parlay pays $13.98..Was a winner. It's now 2-0 +$26.92 For Sunday I show St. Louis -190 & Phillies -180..$10 pays $13.74 (Detroit was also -180, but Phil. was at home...so...I guess that might be a rule. lol)
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sahlsa	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 280 Location: Heard and McDonald Islands	#6 Posted: 7/10/2011 11:08:39 AM How big should the daily favs be for you to pick them ? Somedays the biggest favs are at only -130. The profit would be bigger but the chance of hitting would go the other way.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#7 Posted: 7/10/2011 2:56:40 PM I haven't given it much thought as far as rules go, so for tracking purposes I'm just going to go with the 2 biggest faves on any given day. Doesn't matter if it's -130 or -230.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#8 Posted: 7/10/2011 6:52:46 PM St. Louis -190 & Phillies -180..$10 pays $13.74 was a winner. 3-0 +$40.66 Looks like Thursday will be our next chance to test this.
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onebadgolfer	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 27 Location:	#9 Posted: 7/13/2011 9:38:50 AM For the month of June, this would have produced a record of either 18-12 or 17-13, depending on how you played the games of June 1, when two teams were tied for the second-highest favorite. As I went back to calculate this, I noticed that you have to have some luck on your side. In a group of the four biggest favorites that are closely bunched (say, for example, -175, -173, -173 and -171), your top two picks could change quite frequently throughout the day. They might be Team A and B at 1 o'clock in the afternoon, then A and D an hour later, B and C an hour after that, etc. But at no time in June was there more than two losing days in a row, so this might show some promise.
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onebadgolfer	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 27 Location:	#10 Posted: 7/13/2011 11:22:23 AM FURTHER UPDATE . . . The month of May would have been very difficult — 9-22 with two four-game losing streaks (May 1-4 and 17-20) AND two different six-day stretches in which you would have gone 1-5.
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lovethedough	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 2345 Location: New York	#11 Posted: 7/13/2011 12:31:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by onebadgolfer: FURTHER UPDATE . . . The month of May would have been very difficult — 9-22 with two four-game losing streaks (May 1-4 and 17-20) AND two different six-day stretches in which you would have gone 1-5. 4 game losing streak isnt bad....manage your money so you can lose 8, 9, 10 in a row....even if you are only betting small....u will profit every month !!!!
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onebadgolfer	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 27 Location:	#12 Posted: 7/13/2011 2:23:04 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough: ....manage your money so you can lose 8, 9, 10 in a row....even if you are only betting small....u will profit every month !!!! I'm dyin' to know how this is possible.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#13 Posted: 7/13/2011 2:59:03 PM "FURTHER UPDATE . . . The month of May would have been very difficult — 9-22 with two four-game losing streaks (May 1-4 and 17-20) AND two different six-day stretches in which you would have gone 1-5." Hmmm, this is bad news. 2 six day losing streaks is pretty much a bank roll killer. If you started at $10 you could afford to chase it to a game 7 or so, but if you started at $50 you'd probably go broke. I'm still going to track it for the rest of the season.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#14 Posted: 7/13/2011 3:11:22 PM The fact that it's a +money bet means you wouldn't have to double your bet until game 3 and you'd still show a small profit..But only a couple of bucks. (Starting at $10) $10-$10-$20-$40-$80-$160
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onebadgolfer	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 27 Location:	#15 Posted: 7/13/2011 3:59:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Dutch1976: "FURTHER UPDATE . . . The month of May would have been very difficult — 9-22 with two four-game losing streaks (May 1-4 and 17-20) AND two different six-day stretches in which you would have gone 1-5." Hmmm, this is bad news. 2 six day losing streaks is pretty much a bank roll killer. If you started at $10 you could afford to chase it to a game 7 or so, but if you started at $50 you'd probably go broke. I'm still going to track it for the rest of the season. There were two FOUR-game losing streaks in May, not six games. What I might consider doing is to track this and start to play it after two straight losing days.
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lovethedough	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 2345 Location: New York	#16 Posted: 7/13/2011 5:43:18 PM 10 20 40 80 160 300 600 1200. u need 2400 for 8 games. That would be a week straight of big favorites losing every day....not gonna happen, but u wont make alot of money. 30 60 120 240 480 900 1700...need 3800 dollars to start....got a week....but you will make 500-600 a month
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#17 Posted: 7/13/2011 7:47:55 PM -"AND two different six-day stretches in which you would have gone 1-5." What does this mean exactly? It lost 5 days in a row and won on the 6th day? Or something like it lost 3 days in a row, won once and then lost 2.. for a total of six days? BTW, Thanks for bringing some good info to the thread.
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#18 Posted: 7/14/2011 11:33:03 AM Today I show the Yankees +150 and Minn. +158..$10 parlay pays $17.22
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#19 Posted: 7/15/2011 1:02:55 PM Yesterday lost. Game 2 today..Detroit -200 & Atlanta -185.. $20 parlay pays $26..22
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#20 Posted: 7/16/2011 3:18:45 PM Another loser. Atlanta and Detroit again Game 3, Atlanta -187..Detroit -150 $40 parlay pays $62.32
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#21 Posted: 7/17/2011 3:57:49 AM Game 3 lost..So far not so good. Game 4...I show Atlanta -200 & Boston -145 $80 parlay pays $122.76
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wizardofroz	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com \|
Captain Joined: Oct 2004 Posts: 5276 Location: Kentucky	#22 Posted: 7/17/2011 6:49:34 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough: 4 game losing streak isnt bad....manage your money so you can lose 8, 9, 10 in a row....even if you are only betting small....u will profit every month !!!! For 2 huge favorites in a parlay that pay barely over even money, a 4-game losing streak is AWFUL!
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#23 Posted: 7/18/2011 1:15:06 PM Game 4 was a winner. Daily bets are 4-3..The system is 4-0 +$93.42 (If I'm doing this right.) Todays Game 1.. Phillies -220 & NYY -140...$10 parlay Pays $14.94
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#24 Posted: 7/19/2011 12:45:37 PM Yesterdays Game 1 was a loser. Todays Game 2...Philly -156 & Wash.-152..$20 parlay pays $34.41
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Dutch1976	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 642 Location:	#25 Posted: 7/20/2011 1:58:34 AM Game 2 was a loser. 7/20/11...Game 3...Toronto -160 & Fla.-150...$40 parlay pays $68.33
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