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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: baseballs departing dogs |
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observer55 |
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#26 Posted: 4/20/2011 6:08:38 PM
So, as a side note, anyone claiming any great underdog handicapping, say maybe 43-44 on dog picks using some mystical computer program, is total non-sense. All you had to do was play any underdog and you would have won right about 50%. Underdogs have been beating the crap out of favorites this month. |
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jv040 |
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#27 Posted: 4/20/2011 6:37:48 PM my first post was on april 15th since then there were only 9 plays that qualified if we use hits and not runs. there is 11 total plays as of today that qualified under the hits . if we use hits the day I posted on april 15t hit would be 6 wins and 3 losses today would be 6 wins and 5 losses if hits were used. the teams that held the home teams to six hits or less are.
sd apr 2 loss
bal apr 2 won
mn apr 4 loss
kc apr 9 won
oak apr 9 won
cle apr 9 won
phi apr 9 won
fla apr 13 won
fla apr 15 loss
mn apr 18 loss
mil apr 19 loss
all these teams qualifyed if we go by 6 hit rule on dates stated the win and losses are what happend the next time they played. if I missed any dates let me know you said you keep a data base. just wondering if we should post with just 6 hits or less or maybe post with 6 hits and 6 runs seperatly to see how they compare?
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observer55 |
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#28 Posted: 4/20/2011 7:20:27 PM
It's also nice to see that you came up with the same 6-5 record that Allen Moody has stated for the system's record this year. That should serve as further evidence that Moody did, in fact, mean 6 HITS.
I do not believe you should even bother charting the system using 6 RUNS. If a team, in this case a winning underdog, gives up 6 RUNS, they may have won, but they did NOT play a good game. Moody wants to go against a favorite that did not swing the bat very well last night.
In your post above, as you explain the record, I think you may be saying runs when you mean to say hits, or vice versa. It does get a little confusing, But wouldn't you agree that's it's best to use a system EXACTLY as the author has written it?
No system wins all the time, especially on a small sample of games. I believe the Giants were a system loser this afternoon, bringing the system to 6-6 this season.
The best systems will have very few plays. None of this is easy. |
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jv040 |
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#29 Posted: 4/20/2011 8:10:33 PM I agree with you now that I know what the difference is I will be using only hits.
I'm going to start bankroll over 2 and make all plays 6 hits and less. thanks for letting me know I was posting wrong.
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jv040 |
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#30 Posted: 4/20/2011 8:14:21 PM apr 20th official plays this season 6-6
starting bankroll 2000 |
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observer55 |
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#31 Posted: 4/20/2011 9:09:32 PM
I actually think the "low scoring underdog winner" is the better system of the two. It seems more logical to me. I'm not crazy about the "departing" aspect of the first system. I don't see how it makes a whole lot of difference the fact that it's the final game of a series. But, Allen Moody showed the system has performed well in the past, so let's see what happens.
Thanks for all the work and research that you have done for a long time. I have read your posts since you started. This site would really be great if more people were like you, and not people just posting picks that are not fully and completely explained.
One last note, I hope, for your sake, you are no longer pursuing any type of "chase" systems. There are no LONGTERM profits to be made going that route. |
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observer55 |
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#32 Posted: 4/20/2011 11:49:10 PM
Baseball is very tough to beat. Don't bet big unless you're rich or psychic. |
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jv040 |
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#33 Posted: 4/21/2011 9:40:11 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by observer55: jv040, Let's see if we both agree that on Thursday (an early game) Arizona +114 is a play on BOTH systems, they allowed 6 HITS or less, are departing Cincinnati after the game, and they won as an underdog while scoring 3 RUNS or less. Strictly system plays, not a sure winner, as the Reds have now lost 5 out of the last 6 at HOME against champions like Pittsburgh and Arizona. We're asking Cincinnati to lose again.
Baseball is very tough to beat. Don't bet big unless you're rich or psychic.
yes I agree arizona is a play today |
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jv040 |
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#34 Posted: 4/21/2011 9:42:46 AM april 21
bankroll 2000
ari 119 bet 100 |
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jv040 |
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#35 Posted: 4/23/2011 7:28:52 AM april 23 games 0-1
bankroll 1900 |
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#36 Posted: 4/23/2011 12:32:49 PM  |
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ChicagoCover |
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#37 Posted: 4/28/2011 12:01:16 AM |
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