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Author:	[Systems & Strategies] Topic: baseballs departing dogs
jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#1 Posted: 4/15/2011 7:29:00 PM This week's baseball system pertains to underdogs in the final game of a series. As we've mentioned before with several other systems, we try to find underdogs off a win for two reasons. The first, is that the team has a bit of confidence after a victory and the second is that many people believe the favorite will bounce back, which helps give us better odds. What we're looking for in this system is an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six hits or less, and the game being played is the final game in the series. The six-hit rule means the the favored team isn't swinging a hot bat and teams do tend to run in streaks. The results for this system are as follows: 2008: 59-65 +$995 2009: 69-74 +$1,225 2010: 66-72 +$1573 2011: 6-5 +$203 It's odd that the system actually showed a decent year in 2009, which is when favorites covered at higher than normal rate, and it has been pretty consistent over the years. Not bad for such an easy method.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#2 Posted: 4/15/2011 7:32:27 PM I will post plays starting tommorrow hypothetical bankroll will be based on 100$ bets.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#3 Posted: 4/16/2011 7:05:31 AM no plays today, this system was posted by Allen Moody
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#4 Posted: 4/17/2011 7:49:20 AM april 17th bankroll $2000 chc 112 bet $100
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wizzy69	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 537 Location: United States	#5 Posted: 4/17/2011 7:53:27 AM will be following to see how it does gl to ya and ty for posting
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wizzy69	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 537 Location: United States	#6 Posted: 4/17/2011 7:57:06 AM is this a multiple play a day system where you have to post thru out the day?
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#7 Posted: 4/17/2011 10:02:23 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by wizzy69: is this a multiple play a day system where you have to post thru out the day? no I don't think it is. the only other team that might qualify by game time is laa but I dought they will right now there favored. I only put chc down as an official play
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wizzy69	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 537 Location: United States	#8 Posted: 4/17/2011 10:04:54 AM i will make cubs a small play until i see how this system works out.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#9 Posted: 4/18/2011 12:31:27 PM apr 18 plays chc lost plays are 0-1 Bankroll 1900 todays play pit 155 bet $100
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observer55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 26 Location:	#10 Posted: 4/18/2011 10:45:18 PM jv040, First I would like to say that I've noticed that you do some excellent work on this site. You follow the rules and actually post systems and strategies while explaining the systems, rather than just posting worthless picks like 99% of the people here. You are a very generous person. But, I believe your two plays posted most recently are in error, according to your system rules. Both of your "departing dogs" allowed more than 6 hits in their win. Colorado had 8 hits against the Cubs on Saturday, and Cincinnati had 15 hits against Pittsburgh on Sunday. I really enjoy your posts. Best of luck to you.
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michael550	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: May 2010 Posts: 298 Location:	#11 Posted: 4/19/2011 6:27:17 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by observer55: jv040, First I would like to say that I've noticed that you do some excellent work on this site. You follow the rules and actually post systems and strategies while explaining the systems, rather than just posting worthless picks like 99% of the people here. You are a very generous person. But, I believe your two plays posted most recently are in error, according to your system rules. Both of your "departing dogs" allowed more than 6 hits in their win. Colorado had 8 hits against the Cubs on Saturday, and Cincinnati had 15 hits against Pittsburgh on Sunday. I really enjoy your posts. Best of luck to you. i believe she posted in another thread that she decided to throw out the filter of the dog needing to allow less than 6 hits. otherwise ill be really pissed off that i just lost $2000 on these 2 system plays that werent actually supposed to be system plays at all. i mean what the hell is going on here.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#12 Posted: 4/19/2011 7:03:30 AM I took the 6 hit rule to mean that the home team scored 6 or less if i'm wrong I will change it. . maybe I miss understood. I'm going to backtest this today. now that I understand what that 6 hits means the total between the 2 teams. it makes more sense. thankyou 4 bringing this up.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#13 Posted: 4/19/2011 8:47:33 AM after going over 2011 results in covers I believe that my first interpratation was the right one. That if the home team scores 6 runs or less then its a play. I'm going to post that way. this system is on about.com posted by allen moody. If the total score was less than six there would have only been 4 games this year and when I got this in e-mail allen said the plays were 6-5 in 2011.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#14 Posted: 4/19/2011 8:51:38 AM Apr 19 No plays today pit won current bankroll 2055
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#15 Posted: 4/19/2011 11:58:46 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by observer55: jv040, First I would like to say that I've noticed that you do some excellent work on this site. You follow the rules and actually post systems and strategies while explaining the systems, rather than just posting worthless picks like 99% of the people here. You are a very generous person. But, I believe your two plays posted most recently are in error, according to your system rules. Both of your "departing dogs" allowed more than 6 hits in their win. Colorado had 8 hits against the Cubs on Saturday, and Cincinnati had 15 hits against Pittsburgh on Sunday. I really enjoy your posts. Best of luck to you. as my first post states the six hit rule refers to the favorite team. that would be the home team has to score 6 or less.
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observer55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 26 Location:	#16 Posted: 4/19/2011 12:19:47 PM jv040, Thanks for looking into the rules of the system. I sure don't want to tell you what rules to use, but I looked at Allen Moody's site myself. He clearly says he's looking for "an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six HITS or less". In other words, the underdog we want to bet on had to give up no more than six HITS in the previous game. No where does he say six RUNS. There will be very plays when the underdog's pitching staff is held to a standard of allowing only six hits, but it probably will be a good system since you are betting on a dog that probably has a good pitching staff.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#17 Posted: 4/19/2011 5:33:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by observer55: jv040, Thanks for looking into the rules of the system. I sure don't want to tell you what rules to use, but I looked at Allen Moody's site myself. He clearly says he's looking for "an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six HITS or less". In other words, the underdog we want to bet on had to give up no more than six HITS in the previous game. No where does he say six RUNS. There will be very plays when the underdog's pitching staff is held to a standard of allowing only six hits, but it probably will be a good system since you are betting on a dog that probably has a good pitching staff. I don't want to give the wrong plays according to the rules thats stated above. it does say hits and not runs and I miss interpeted that. Do you know where I can find hit info from the games that were played the day before?
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observer55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 26 Location:	#18 Posted: 4/19/2011 6:13:59 PM jv040, I think you are doing the right thing by sticking to the rules as the system was written (a play is only a play if the favorite had no more than 6 HITS in their loss the previous day). There are all kinds of places to easily get the hit stats for any game. Right here on Covers for one. Just hold your cursor (pointer) over the little box near the top of page that says MLB. A little window will drop down, click on "scoreboard", you'll see all the scores from yesterday. Then click on "box score" on any of the match-ups. Also, there is a calendar that you can click on for any date for games played that day. ESPN/MLB also has the boxscores and stats. Let me if you still have trouble finding any stats you need. Keep up the good work.
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dogunder	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 3494 Location: Heard and McDonald Islands	#19 Posted: 4/20/2011 5:06:20 AM hows this going?
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#20 Posted: 4/20/2011 9:14:02 AM I believe after tracking the 2011 season it's suppose to be 6 hits or less comming across the plate. this is how i'm going to post it.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#21 Posted: 4/20/2011 9:17:42 AM april 20th bankroll 2055 plays today Laa 108 bet $100 sf 113 bet $100
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observer55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 26 Location:	#22 Posted: 4/20/2011 1:34:53 PM jv040, You seem to be having trouble defining HITS and RUNS. HITS do not come across the plate as you stated in Post #20, RUNS come across the plate. I'm sure if you e-mail Allen Moody he will tell you that the favorite, in their loss, had to allow no more than 6 HITS. Allowing 6 RUNS in a game is no feather in a team's cap. Allowing 6 RUNS is not a good performance by a team. Allowing 6 HITS indicates the underdog's pitching staff did a very good job last game. The two plays you have posted for today, only SF actually qualifies, as the Rockies only had 3 hits last night (they also had 3 runs). But, Texas had 9 HITS in their loss to the Angels. I do wish you luck in using whatever rules you chose to use. I just think you should make it clear to followers that you if use 6 RUNS as the standard for a play, it is not the same system that Allen Moody uses. I think you are probably one of the top three posters on this site.
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observer55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 26 Location:	#23 Posted: 4/20/2011 2:22:15 PM I need to make a quick grammar correction on my last post just to be clear. I meant to say, I think you (jv040) should make it clear to followers that if you use 6 RUNS as the standard for a play, it is not the same system that Allen Moody uses.
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#24 Posted: 4/20/2011 4:48:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by observer55: I need to make a quick grammar correction on my last post just to be clear. I meant to say, I think you (jv040) should make it clear to followers that if you use 6 RUNS as the standard for a play, it is not the same system that Allen Moody uses. are you sure about that? I went back and looked at hits vs runs and theres always going to be more hits than runs. if you use 6 hits the way allen moody printed it out then there would not be any where near 11 plays for this season check it out for your self. I'm pretty sure that he meant comning across the plate just like in his other system he posted he used the words 3 hits or less but said it was coming across plate meaning runs.
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observer55	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2011 Posts: 26 Location:	#25 Posted: 4/20/2011 5:40:38 PM jv040, You should read both of Moody's articles on the two systems again, very carefully. In the "departing dog" system he says 6 HITS. In fact, he says 6 HITS twice in the article. He does not mean six runs. Allowing 6 RUNS would not have been a good game for the underdog. In the "low scoring dog" system, Moody clearly says 3 RUNS. Obviously in that system he's using RUNS because it's very unlikely the underdog would have won the game if they only had 3 HITS. I understand that Allen Moody is a pretty nice guy and answers his e-mails. If you believe he did not print what he meant to print, then you should contact him. I have no doubt that the systems are printed exactly as he intended them to be. In the "departing dog" system 6 HITS is the qualifier, and in the "low scoring" dog system 3 RUNS is the qualifier.
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