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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Quarters for NBA
primetime27 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/14/2010 5:49:34 PM
Keeping it short tonight since i'm in a hurry. Got something in the works for 1st/4th quarters sides and totals.

Minn/GS under 55.5 1st qtr
Minn/GS under 51 4th qtr
Minn +.5 4th qtr
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#2
Posted: 12/14/2010 6:19:39 PM

GL tonight primetime...

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#3
Posted: 12/15/2010 1:31:31 AM
Not the best opening act as the wolves fall for no reason to send the 4th qtr over by 1.
Minn/GS under 55.5 1st qtr
Minn/GS under 51 4th qtr
Minn +.5 4th qtr

nevertheless 1-2.
I am only back testing this season which may be a bad idea but i believe teams change year to year as do the trends. I'm hoping to have enough data in a few more weeks to be able to limit the plays to a higher percentage. On to tomorrow.
Will post lines later
Sixers 1st under
Sixers 4th qtr
Sixers 4th under
Bulls 1st qtr
Tor 4th qtr
Lakers 1st qtr
Pacers 4th qtr
MIn 4th qtr
Min 4th under
Mem 1st qtr
Mem 1st under
Char 4th qtr
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#4
Posted: 12/15/2010 1:33:38 AM
First sentence should read.
" Not the best opening act, as the wolves fouled when the game was over and sent the 4th qtr over by 1."
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#5
Posted: 12/15/2010 5:38:06 PM
And the lines are...
Sixers 1st under -1.5
Sixers 4th qtr -1
Sixers 4th under 46.5
Bulls 1st qtr -1.5
Tor 4th qtr +1
Lakers 1st qtr -1
Pacers 4th qtr +.5
MIn 4th qtr +2
Min 4th under 54.5
Mem 1st qtr -3
Mem 1st under 47.5
Char 4th qtr +2
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#6
Posted: 12/15/2010 7:43:13 PM
"Sixers 1st under 49.5" either way it's a loser
Bulls 1st qtr -1.5
Lakers 1st qtr -1
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#7
Posted: 12/15/2010 11:36:06 PM
Sixers 1st under 49.5
Sixers 4th qtr -1
Sixers 4th under 46.5
Bulls 1st qtr -1.5
Tor 4th qtr +1
Lakers 1st qtr -1
Pacers 4th qtr +.5
MIn 4th qtr +2
Min 4th under 54.5
Mem 1st qtr -3
Mem 1st under 47.5
Char 4th qtr +2

9-3 on the night
ytd: 10-5

Picks for thursday 16th
Den 1st
Hawks 4th
hawks 4th under
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#8
Posted: 12/16/2010 3:33:26 PM
Picks for thursday 16th
Den 1st +.5
Hawks 4th +1.5
hawks 4th under 46
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#9
Posted: 12/17/2010 3:35:07 PM
Den 1st +.5
Hawks 4th +1.5
hawks 4th under 46
1-2 on the evening
11-7 ytd
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#10
Posted: 12/17/2010 4:05:15 PM
Fridays picks
ATL 1st qtr under 46
Nets 4th qtr +1
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#11
Posted: 12/17/2010 10:30:02 PM
ATL 1st qtr under 46
Nets 4th qtr +1

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#12
Posted: 12/17/2010 10:32:22 PM
ytd 12-8
saturdays picks

heat 4th under
phil 4th under
cle 1st
cle 4th under
bucks 1st
jazz 4th
clip 4th under
port 1st under
port 4th under
minn 4th
minn 4th under
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#13
Posted: 12/18/2010 1:20:13 AM

Seems to be going okay at 12-8.  Not sure what one pays for quarters - I mean is it -110 or +103 or does it vary?

How do you come up with the plays? You mentioned they are 1st or 4th quarters.  Interesting...

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#14
Posted: 12/18/2010 1:29:39 PM
The book that i use is almost always -110. Picks are just based on certain percentages, but i may have to add a few other factors to tighten it up.
I am happy with how it is going, since i only back-tested this season i kind of expected this. I think as the season goes on the winning percentage will get better.
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#15
Posted: 12/18/2010 1:57:05 PM
saturdays picks

heat 4th under 48
phil 4th under 47
cle 1st +1.5
cle 4th under 51
bucks 1st -.5
jazz 4th +.5
clip 4th under 47
port 1st under 49.5
port 4th under 49.5
minn 4th +2
minn 4th under 55
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#16
Posted: 12/19/2010 12:56:28 AM

I think you had a pretty decent night on Sat.  Checked Pinny's rules and the bet on the Cle 4th quarter - Under - OT is NOT included -

You've got something here if it can continue at this pace - GL

 

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#17
Posted: 12/19/2010 9:59:42 PM
heat 4th under 48
phil 4th under 47
cle 1st +1.5
cle 4th under 51
bucks 1st -.5
jazz 4th +.5
clip 4th under 47
port 1st under 49.5
port 4th under 49.5
minn 4th +2
minn 4th under 55
7-4 for saturday. I didn't have time to post today
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#18
Posted: 12/20/2010 3:07:02 AM
There actually weren't any plays for sunday. Mondays plays are
Hawks 1st under
NO 1st
NO 4th under
IND 4th
SA 1st
Suns 4th
Suns 4th under

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#19
Posted: 12/20/2010 6:18:31 PM
YTD 19-12
Hawks 1st under 48
NO 1st +1
NO 4th under 46.5
IND 4th-.5
SA 1st -3.5
Suns 4th +2
Suns 4th under 53.5
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#20
Posted: 12/20/2010 11:31:04 PM
Hawks 1st under 48
NO 1st +1
NO 4th under 46.5
IND 4th-.5
SA 1st -3.5
Suns 4th +2
Suns 4th under 53.5

3-4
YTD: 22-16

Plays for tuesday
GS 1st under
Dal 4th
Orl 1st
Orl 1st over
Orl 4th over
Mil 1st under
Mil 4th over
OKC 1st
OKC 1st under
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#21
Posted: 12/21/2010 3:40:06 PM
GS 1st under +1
Dal 4th +.5
Orl 1st -1
Orl 1st over 48
Orl 4th over 47.5
Mil 1st under 48
Mil 4th over 47.5
OKC 1st -2
OKC 1st under 48.5
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#22
Posted: 12/22/2010 12:50:15 AM
GS 1st under 51.5
Dal 4th +.5
Orl 1st -1
Orl 1st over 48
Orl 4th over 47.5
Mil 1st under 48 line should have been 46.5
Mil 4th over 47.5
OKC 1st -2
OKC 1st under 48.5
4-4 should be 5-3
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#23
Posted: 12/22/2010 2:14:57 PM
Ytd: 27-19
Wednesdays plays
NJ 1st +2
NJ 4th +2
Chi 4th -.5
Phil 4th under 47.5
Okc 4th pk
Okc 4th under 52.5
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#24
Posted: 12/22/2010 10:25:08 PM
NJ 1st +2
NJ 4th +2
Chi 4th -.5
Phil 4th under 47.5
Okc 4th pk
Okc 4th under 52.5
4-2 on the day
YTD: 31-21
Thursday's play
magic 1st
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#25
Posted: 12/22/2010 10:29:40 PM

Nice night on Wednesday -

Thanks for posting

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