NBA Road Chase

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA Road Chase
cranemonkey PM cranemonkey
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Posted: 10/30/2010 9:50:56 AM

Hey Bettor, - Smd , am i lost here?  I have Portland tonight as first play of season, looks like i missed a couple. So are you guys doin anti jm or just jm???   i will go back through my schedule and make sure its right.   

10-30  port

11-01 toronto

then two plays on the 7th, 9th, and 10th of november .   Am i way off.  

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/30/2010 9:55:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cranemonkey:

Hey Bettor, - Smd , am i lost here?  I have Portland tonight as first play of season, looks like i missed a couple. So are you guys doin anti jm or just jm???   i will go back through my schedule and make sure its right.   

10-30  port

11-01 toronto

then two plays on the 7th, 9th, and 10th of november .   Am i way off.  

We already won a play on Portland, see post #37 in this thread

This thread basically follows "version 4" of JM's strategy.  We play all road trips, in conference, out of conferance, or 2/3 against either conferance.  It shows to have 150ish plays per season, and about 2-4 losses.  I designed a Labourchere system to keep us honest, and able to recover any losses that we might incur

bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 10/30/2010 11:18:01 AM

 spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AhVKY8GzoikLdFBsbUl0T2NFX2hncGQ0QnJ4QnhuRlE&hl=en&output=html
Here's the spreadsheet smitler made for JM. AJM is in another thread. This thread is strictly JM. Same spreadsheet though.

JFISH PM JFISH
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Posted: 10/30/2010 1:09:37 PM

so tonight its

Charlotte -6 buy 3

Minnesota - 8 buy 3.  

LSU2thBone PM LSU2thBone
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Posted: 10/30/2010 2:04:42 PM
yup
cranemonkey PM cranemonkey
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Posted: 10/30/2010 2:53:39 PM
Thanks. you guys ROCK!!!
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/31/2010 8:49:44 AM

2 losses last night.  New line:

25-25-43-43

25-25-25-25-43-43

25-25-25-25

Next play:

11/1 (A) Toronto (buying 3 points) $116 to win $68

slc5610 PM slc5610
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Posted: 11/1/2010 9:53:11 PM
on Toronto.

Can you buy points at Bodog?
slc5610 PM slc5610
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Posted: 11/1/2010 9:53:34 PM
on Toronto

can you buy points at Bodog?
bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 11/1/2010 10:15:08 PM
check their terms man.
slc5610 PM slc5610
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Posted: 11/2/2010 5:31:40 AM
nice win on Toronto.

Who do we have today? Minnesota and Memphis?
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/2/2010 7:32:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smdio:

2 losses last night.  New line:

25-25-43-43

25-25-25-25-43-43

25-25-25-25

Next play:

11/1 (A) Toronto (buying 3 points) $116 to win $68

New Labby:

x-25-43-x

25-25-25-25-43-43

25-25-25-25

(A) Memphis (spread not released yet) (-170) $116 to win $68

(B) Minnesota +19 (-170) $116 to win $68

 

Good luck boys

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/2/2010 10:47:11 AM

The (A) bet on Memphis for tonight (11/2/2010) will be +12 at -170, $116 to win $68

cashColt PM cashColt
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Posted: 11/2/2010 3:06:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smdio:

Without buying the 3 points, you would have to add about 5-10 losses per year to your tally.  The line is usually -170 after buying 3 points, compared to -110 as it normally is

Sorry if this question has already been asked. I scanned through the thread and didn't see an answer.

I'm interested in trying out this system. However my book (The Greek) charges -220 to buy 3 pts. -170 will only buy 2 points. I realize this will still be profitable, but I'm worried about the potentially huge number of units I'll have to wager using Agressive Labby.

Just curious which books offer 3 pts at -170? I may go back and test the number of losses by only buying 2 pts rather than 3. If it is significant it probably makes the most sense to just open a new account at a sportsbook that gives pts for less.

Maybe its just the fact that I'm I'd like to start tonight and the 2 games are MEM @ LAL and MIN @ MIA. But I just don't feel comfortable laying -220 in those situations

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/2/2010 3:37:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashColt:

Sorry if this question has already been asked. I scanned through the thread and didn't see an answer.

I'm interested in trying out this system. However my book (The Greek) charges -220 to buy 3 pts. -170 will only buy 2 points. I realize this will still be profitable, but I'm worried about the potentially huge number of units I'll have to wager using Agressive Labby.

Just curious which books offer 3 pts at -170? I may go back and test the number of losses by only buying 2 pts rather than 3. If it is significant it probably makes the most sense to just open a new account at a sportsbook that gives pts for less.

Maybe its just the fact that I'm I'd like to start tonight and the 2 games are MEM @ LAL and MIN @ MIA. But I just don't feel comfortable laying -220 in those situations

Don't bother testing the system for 2-point buying. I already have and the results were bad, something like an addition 6-8 losses per season.

Everyone hates BetUS here at covers.com but I've been using them without a problem so far.  They offer 3 points for -170 odds.  You can even buy up to 10 points if you really feel froggy, although I'm not sure who would do that.

I'm sure there are other books offering -170 for 3 points, I just don't know of any since BetUS is my main NBA book

And no, I wouldn't play either Memphis or Minnesota at -220 odds.  Your labby will get fucked quicker than you can imagine!

cashColt PM cashColt
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Posted: 11/2/2010 4:24:36 PM

Thanks for the info

I was curious so I backtested last season.

Without buying any points there were 9 losses (two by Houston). All losses were on 3 game trips, except one 4-game ATS road losing streak by the Nets.

This was playing any roadtrip of 3 games or more. The chase ended as soon at there was one ATS win, even if the team had 3 or more games remaining on the trip.

Again I only tested last season, but there was only one case where buying 3 pts won, while buying 2 pts would have lost. During the Nets 4-game chase loss, game 1 would have pushed buying 3, but the chase still lost over 4 games.

Overall for the 09/10 season, buying 2 pts resulted in 4 losses, and buying 3 pts had 3 losses.

Keep in mind I also didn't filter out playing the 3 worst roads teams, or when they play the 3 best home teams.

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/2/2010 5:33:00 PM

I don't have my numbers in front of me, but I think I did the last 4 or 5 years worth.  I do remember there wasn't as many last year, but quite a few in the previous few years

Obviously, it's your choice "to buy or not to buy".  Check out the last few years and see if it would be worth it.  From everything I have seen, 3 points are needed to keep the wins at a minimum

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/3/2010 7:41:59 AM

2 ugly losses last night

New line:

x-25-43-58

25-25-25-25-43-43-58-58

25-25-25-25-58

11/3 wagers:

(B) Charlotte +5.5 (-170) $141.10 to win $83 (58+25)

(B) Memphis (line not released yet) (-170) $141.10 to win $83 (58+25)

(C) Minnesota +20.5 (-170) $141.10 to win $83

 

Time to recover some losses and right the ship

bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 11/3/2010 8:17:17 PM
For christs sake! We need some kind of filter. Min is horrible. Some kiond of RPI bottom 3 thing or something. Orl, LAL, Mia & Bos are all out for blood to show they are the best.If we take a bottom team we need to look @ who they are playing. +21 not good enough obviously against the big boys. Damn. I know game isnt over but down by 25+ @ half is  wacked. IK think we just lose this one...hopefully Im wrong.
slc5610 PM slc5610
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Posted: 11/4/2010 1:47:45 AM
dammit, i gotta get back to a book that allows me to buy points, i lost on Memphis tonight and had i bought 3 id have won.


nolemonasses PM nolemonasses
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Posted: 11/4/2010 6:14:57 AM
Anti-JM requires no point buying. All bets are at -110. Same record last year as the JM system. If you are only going to play one NBA system, why play the one that is -170 to -220 versus the one that is -110?
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/4/2010 8:59:08 AM

1 loss isn't the end of the world guys!

x-25-43-58-42

25-25-43-43

25-25-25-25-58-42We subtracted out two 58+25 wins, and added two 43's to the end of line C and the end of line A

Although it's our first loss, as you can see, it doesn't hurt us too much on the Labby line.  We're still looking pretty good and the upcoming games will get our losses back while continueing to profit

This is why we don't Martingale guys

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/4/2010 3:30:17 PM
Next play 11/5

(A) Cleveland to win $67

(A) LA Clippers to win $101
bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 11/4/2010 8:56:34 PM
True dat w martingale. Labby IS the way to go. 
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 11/5/2010 7:24:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smdio:

Next play 11/5

(A) Cleveland to win $67

(A) LA Clippers to win $101
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