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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll* |
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smdio |
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#26 Posted: 10/13/2010 2:54:33 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by smitler:
Italy Serie B. I don't have a book that offers it.
Yeah I just checked a couple others. Not appearing anywhere |
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dj_destroyer |
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#27 Posted: 10/13/2010 2:58:50 PM
If you're not American, you should be using Pinnacle. No questions, no debates. |
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dj_destroyer |
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#28 Posted: 10/13/2010 3:08:52 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nuggetmonster: SEEMS LIKE YOU FIRE IN ON ANY EVENT WITH GREAT VALUE. DO YOU FEEL ONE SPORT IS YOUR STREGNTH CAPPING OR IS ALL EQUAL IN YOUR MIND
All equal my friend, mathematics knows no sports. I simply go based on value derived from my capping.
I have seen soccer and NCAA basketball emerge as my strongest sports overall but this can easily adjust back to the mean and shouldn't be considered trustworthy or anything of value.
If I'm making a play (in any sport), I feel we have a mathematical edge that will produce value over the long run. Once you start capping through value, you stop caring about whether you win or lose because you simply maintain that you made a wise wager, and that's really all you can do.
People who try to pick winners everyday get caught up in juice or simply lose outright. We all know that we're 50/50 cappers so why try to avoid the losing side? It's a mathematical improbability...
So instead, why not take your 50% wins and get them to pay more than the equivalent price (+100)? That's the whole idea of value betting; if you're going to lose half of your wagers, you better make sure your wins count! |
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nuggetmonster |
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#29 Posted: 10/13/2010 3:15:19 PM |
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dj_destroyer |
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#30 Posted: 10/13/2010 3:20:50 PM
In my other thread, I tripled my bankroll in three months (and was only $70 short after two months but feel into a slump costing me that extra month)... so if I had to say -- I'd go with 2 months. |
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nuggetmonster |
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#31 Posted: 10/13/2010 3:24:34 PM |
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scubedoo18 |
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#32 Posted: 10/13/2010 3:53:29 PM GL DJ
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dj_destroyer |
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#33 Posted: 10/13/2010 3:58:00 PM |
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scotth69 |
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#34 Posted: 10/13/2010 5:30:27 PM i'm in the USA and can't use Pinny.
will have to decide if i want to or can open an account for others you listed.
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smdio |
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#35 Posted: 10/13/2010 7:04:11 PM Yeah kinda sucks. No fault of dj, but I'll be missing those 3 soccer plays tonight.
Already had the 2 NHL plays before he posted them. Great minds think alike! |
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dj_destroyer |
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#36 Posted: 10/13/2010 10:54:25 PM  |
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crashmaniac |
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#37 Posted: 10/13/2010 11:09:39 PM
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skidroid |
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#38 Posted: 10/14/2010 1:15:22 AM
New rule! You have to play garbage everybody can play.
wtf!
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#39 Posted: 10/14/2010 2:18:37 AM  |
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dj_destroyer |
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#40 Posted: 10/14/2010 12:42:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer: Record: 8-3-0 Bankroll: $5991.80 Wagered: $1691.32 Returned: $2683.12 Net: +$991.80 ROI: 58.64% _____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _ Sabres [-142] 3% -172.83 to win 121.71  Lightning [+115] 3% -172.83 to win 198.75  Livorno [+206] 2% -115.22 to win 237.35 Siena [-115] 2% -115.22 to win 100.19 Modena/Empoli DRAW [+191] 2% -115.22 to win 220.07
Blues [-104] 2% -119.84 to win 115.23
Flyers -1.5 [+175] 2% -119.84 to win 209.72
Destroy the Books! |
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dj_destroyer |
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#41 Posted: 10/14/2010 12:43:19 PM |
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butta01 |
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#42 Posted: 10/14/2010 12:54:54 PM
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jonnymega |
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#43 Posted: 10/14/2010 12:56:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
All equal my friend, mathematics knows no sports. I simply go based on value derived from my capping.
I have seen soccer and NCAA basketball emerge as my strongest sports overall but this can easily adjust back to the mean and shouldn't be considered trustworthy or anything of value.
If I'm making a play (in any sport), I feel we have a mathematical edge that will produce value over the long run. Once you start capping through value, you stop caring about whether you win or lose because you simply maintain that you made a wise wager, and that's really all you can do.
People who try to pick winners everyday get caught up in juice or simply lose outright. We all know that we're 50/50 cappers so why try to avoid the losing side? It's a mathematical improbability...
So instead, why not take your 50% wins and get them to pay more than the equivalent price (+100)? That's the whole idea of value betting; if you're going to lose half of your wagers, you better make sure your wins count!
I'd be curious to see a "system" where one makes blind plays with the sole criteria being the line lies between +105 and +115. Presumably, over a long period of time, you'll hit at about 50% while your ROI is a consistant 5-15%
GL with your goal and thanks for your contributions!
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skidroid |
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#44 Posted: 10/14/2010 2:32:02 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer: Everybody who's anybody can make all these plays at Pinnacle; as for the Americans, who cares?!
How dare you disrespect the Americans you SOB.
Where you from France?
Now I mean it! Post plays we can play or don't post at all.
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dj_destroyer |
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#45 Posted: 10/14/2010 2:52:48 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnymega:
I'd be curious to see a "system" where one makes blind plays with the sole criteria being the line lies between +105 and +115. Presumably, over a long period of time, you'll hit at about 50% while your ROI is a consistant 5-15%
GL with your goal and thanks for your contributions!
When I say we're 50/50 cappers, I mean we'll win a coin toss half the time. You don't get a 'true' coin toss in sports betting because of the vig. Therefore, through capping, you must expose weak lines in order to cover the vig and create and edge. Simply playing +105 to +115 would not net you money (unless it was a coin toss lol).
Remember, to gain an edge, you need to beat the true odds. Pinnacle offer 5 cent lines so if the play was +110, the real value for that game should be +115. Making a +110 play when you're suppose to be receiving +115 will bankrupt you.
@butta - No soccer for me today.
@skidroid - I'm from Canada although France is also better than the United States. I'm going to specifically post plays that Americans can't play and I'll be sure to hit at a crazy clip just to piss you off you sad sack of garbage. |
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sahlsa |
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#46 Posted: 10/14/2010 3:00:59 PM Do you have a timeframe in which you post the plays ? It makes it a bit easier to follow if we know when the plays are posted.
@skidroid |
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dj_destroyer |
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#47 Posted: 10/14/2010 3:07:30 PM  |
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smdio |
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#48 Posted: 10/14/2010 3:23:32 PM I'd love to tail you dj, but it seems like a decent percentage might be on soccer plays that my books don't offer
I might have to bow out  |
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sahlsa |
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#49 Posted: 10/14/2010 3:39:05 PM
Some of the people south of you tend to post the plays when "we" sleep  |
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aerojackel |
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#50 Posted: 10/14/2010 4:29:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by skidroid:
How dare you disrespect the Americans you SOB.
Where you from France?
Now I mean it! Post plays we can play or don't post at all.
 - maybe check to see if other books offer the plays. Pinny is great on the straight forward plays.
Post away DJ - you have a solid record - keep it up  |
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