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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
Luckydan
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#51
Posted: 8/29/2010 2:15:17 PM

Was Fla Atlantic a board team in 2005?



GL

Saturday 11/26/05 @ Oklahoma L 14-42 Week 13 L 17.5 O 52
Saturday 11/19/05 @ Baylor L 34-44 Week 12 L 3 O 46
Saturday 11/12/05 Texas Tech W 24-17 Week 11 W 23 U 63.5
Saturday 10/29/05 Texas L 28-47 Week 9 W 37 O 59
Saturday 10/22/05 @ Iowa State L 10-37 Week 8 L 13 O 44.5
Saturday 10/15/05 @ Texas A&M L 23-62 Week 7 L 20.5 O 53
Saturday 10/08/05 Missouri L 31-38 Week 6 L 5.5 O 50
Saturday 10/01/05 Colorado L 0-34 Week 5 L 3.5 U 43
Saturday 09/17/05 Arkansas State W 20-10 Week 3 L -24.5 U 48.5
Thursday 09/08/05 @ Florida Atlantic W 23-3 Week 2 W -13.5 U 49
Saturday 09/03/05 Montana State W 15-10 Week 1 N N
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#52
Posted: 9/1/2010 5:15:22 PM

I didnt read the whole thred but have you looked at the amount of money needed to have in your bankroll to win this money?  Someone said $3000 if you are planning to win $100 per team.  How is that accurate?

$100 bet on all 120 teams the first week is already $12000 on the line.

Even if you cut it down to $10 you are still betting $1200 out of the gate.

I am a fan of chases but I think the math needs to be done over and over before you actually commit to it.  If you underestimate the bankroll and god forbid you go even 40% one week...you are betting a shitload more the following week.

I

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#53
Posted: 9/1/2010 5:47:01 PM

If you bet all 120 teams in week 1 for $100 it's 13200 with juice.

Let's say you win half.

60 teams in week 2 for $330 each right? That's $19800 bet in week 2

Win half.

30 teams in week 3 for $770 each.  $23,100 bet in week 3.

If you win 45% instead of 50% you are up to $27,720 in week 3.  Even if you go for $10 per team you are still looking at almost $3000 tied up.

Still think it can work but like I said, you have to do the math because if you underestimate you are all a sudden aborting in week 4 because only 30% of your teams won and now you have to bet double on 70% of the losers.

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#54
Posted: 9/2/2010 6:50:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sportzmaniac:

in week one teams play each other so 60 x 110 correct? or am i missing something there.

also confused on the chase a bit and what UUUOOO has to do with anything.  are we betting that no team will start out with 6 straight unders? or just 3 straight under?  thanks.


I'm with this fella...I've read the whole thread, but candidly, I can be as sharp as a marble when it comes to understanding the logic of some systems. Neilsy, any chance you can provide a more detailed explanation (...5th grade level) on how to use this system.
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#55
Posted: 9/2/2010 7:12:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Airmail26:

I didnt read the whole thred but have you looked at the amount of money needed to have in your bankroll to win this money?  Someone said $3000 if you are planning to win $100 per team.  How is that accurate?

$100 bet on all 120 teams the first week is already $12000 on the line.

My exact question in page one of this thread. also was why I was trying to figure out how to cut-down on the number of plays. Maybe only bet the top 25 teams (pre-season top 25 and stick with those teams even as the rankings change) until they win a unit?

Even if you cut it down to $10 you are still betting $1200 out of the gate.

I am a fan of chases but I think the math needs to be done over and over before you actually commit to it.  If you underestimate the bankroll and god forbid you go even 40% one week...you are betting a shitload more the following week.

I

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#56
Posted: 9/2/2010 10:40:42 AM

This is what I meant to reply to on the above quote:

My exact question in page one of this thread. Also was why I was trying to figure out how to cut-down on the number of plays. Maybe only bet the top 25 teams (pre-season top 25 and stick with those teams even as the rankings change) until they win a unit?

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#57
Posted: 9/2/2010 11:06:05 AM

I am sure you could just bet less teams if you want.  You increase the chance of having a losing season if 1 doesn't hit.

Although I still question the logic of the UUUOOO.  Why not do UOUOUO, UUOOUU?  It's so completely random that I don't think it matters.

I think just doing top 25 teams is a good idea if you want to narrow it down.  Personally I don't like a straight chase anymore, too much risk of losing your entire bankroll if things go bad.  I am a much bigger fan of the Labouchere system.

 

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#58
Posted: 9/2/2010 11:28:25 AM

OK. Here is how I am playing this:

I am taking the current pre-season Top 25 list and betting on those teams to win 1 unit. This will cut down on the number of teams to play on BIG TIME.

Rules: bet the over for each team until they hit. If the over has not hit after the 3rd week, start betting the under for the next 3 games. If game 1 loses, i will bet enough on game 2 to win back the loss and win 1 unit, and so on for the rest of the games.

Once we get to week 3 or 4, I will see how many of the top 25 teams have won their unit, and perhaps start making wagers on the other 95 teams that make up the top 120, b/c the ones that are left will be farther along in their progression, but I will have missed out on their losses leading up to those games. Perhaps I will bet to win more than 1 unit at that point depending on my BRoll.

The top 25 teams per ESPN are:

Bama, OSU, Boise St., FLA, TEX, TCU, OK, Neb, Iowa, VATech, Oregon, Wisky, Miami, USC, Pitt, GTech, Ark, UNC, PSU, FSU, LSU, Aub, GA, Oreg.St., WVU

Plays for tonight (thursday) are:

#2 OSU over 46.5

#14 USC over 53.5

#15 Pitt over 49

All to win one unit @ -110 odds.

One discrepancy. I have #12 Miami playing saturday at my book, but ESPN has them playing tonight at 730. Will need to look into this before tonight.

NOTE: Even though the top 25 rankings will obviously change every week, the top 25 I have listed above will be the 25 teams i will stick with, and continue to use for tracking using that ranking.

GL to all.

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#59
Posted: 9/2/2010 11:33:36 AM

Considering lab lines, but how would you do it considering their are only 1 each of games 1-6? Where in, say MLB, there are tons of games 1,2, and 3 always coming into play?

Just have 2 lines?

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#60
Posted: 9/2/2010 11:35:30 AM
My understanding of the ooouuu logic, is that only 1 team in a long long time has started out the opposite, so if you dont follow that path, you are rolling the dice.
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#61
Posted: 9/2/2010 11:51:23 AM

Good Luck - Sounds like a good way to narrow it down.

As far as the lab lines...that was more of a general statement rather than applying to this particular strategy.  I have done chases with the Martingale system before and while they can be profitable, it's much harder to judge the size of the bankroll needed.

Good Luck on your first couple of plays tonight!!

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Luckydan
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#62
Posted: 9/2/2010 2:41:45 PM
Please look at post #51 of this thread. The original author stated that last year (Bowling Green) was the first time that this system had lost. Oklahoma State lost in 2005. While it may not happen often, it only takes one time to lose total conviction in this system, especially with the significant outlay of money that may be required to stay in the chase.

GL
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#63
Posted: 9/2/2010 4:14:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Please look at post #51 of this thread. The original author stated that last year (Bowling Green) was the first time that this system had lost. Oklahoma State lost in 2005. While it may not happen often, it only takes one time to lose total conviction in this system, especially with the significant outlay of money that may be required to stay in the chase.

GL


I could be wrong, but I think that I read that we were skipping = no play any 1AA team to avoid these losses.  So when you consider in 2005 Oklahoma State's first game was against Montana State = 1-AA, and Week Four Opponent was against Colorado, the total resulted as an UNDER, = a win for the system.   The first 3 weeks of the system, looking for the OVER, and WEEK 4, 5, and 6, we are looking for the UNDER.    Maybe neilsy or someone else could confirm this thinking, because you raise a very good question of clarity for the system.

see you at the top.


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Luckydan
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#64
Posted: 9/2/2010 5:16:36 PM
Prime 1,

If you include Montana State it is a win for the system. If you do not (my understanding of the system), it is a loss for the system.

with Montana State  UUUU  win
without Montana St  UUU000 loss

GL
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#65
Posted: 9/2/2010 10:44:34 PM
While we wait for a ruling, I was interested to see how the NFL works out with a similar system.   I'm sure there could be others, as I did find a loss in 2002 with San Fran going UUUOOO to start the season.  Maybe someone with the proper resources could better research this.

But in 2009 the OOOUUU chase would have been complete by week 4

Using Martingale 10, 30, 70, 150, etc... and assuming -110 odds.

Week One = 16 overs, 16 unders = $160 - $176 = -$16.00
Week Two = 9 overs, 7 unders = $270 - $231 = + $39
Week Three = 6 overs, 1 under = $420 - $77 = + $343
Week Four = 1 UNDER, and O overs = $150.00 - $0.00  = +$150 as Denver completes the chase.

So with a Bankroll of about $500.00, one could potentially double to $1,016.00 in four weeks.  With a modest bankroll of $500.00, it may be better to start this chase with $5, $15, $35, $75 etc... to avoid exposing too much of your bankroll.  You could still make 50% on your money in a month.

Please check my math, I did everything by hand on a scratch pad.

Sorry Neilsy if this post is inappropriate for this thread.  Maybe another thread could be started for the NFL to avoid confusion, It's late and I'm just thinking out loud.


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#66
Posted: 9/3/2010 8:39:34 AM

Results:

#2 OSU over 46.5

#14 USC over 53.5

#15 Pitt over 49

Nice start to the system. 3-0.

I missed the Miami game. I know they scored 45, but need to check to see if that was over or not.

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#67
Posted: 9/3/2010 8:44:41 AM

Miami would have been a loss, but I missed it b/c my book had it listed for Saturday when i placed the other wagers.

System wise (my top 25 version), that technically makes it 3-1 so far in individual games.

Personal bankroll wise +3 units. Miami will go to game 2 next weekend. 21 games to bet on the A level this Saturday.

GL to all.

 

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#68
Posted: 9/3/2010 9:48:16 AM
There was no line on the Miami game. Any inclusion of this game in the system, whether a win or a loss, is questionable. Due to a number of teams playing off board opponents, a decision on how to view these games needs to be made before one gets further into the system. Disregarding these games entirely is my vote. If you can't wager on it, why consider it for system purposes?

GL
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#69
Posted: 9/3/2010 10:01:21 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Prime1:

While we wait for a ruling, I was interested to see how the NFL works out with a similar system.   I'm sure there could be others, as I did find a loss in 2002 with San Fran going UUUOOO to start the season.  Maybe someone with the proper resources could better research this.

But in 2009 the OOOUUU chase would have been complete by week 4

Using Martingale 10, 30, 70, 150, etc... and assuming -110 odds.

Week One = 16 overs, 16 unders = $160 - $176 = -$16.00
Week Two = 9 overs, 7 unders = $270 - $231 = + $39
Week Three = 6 overs, 1 under = $420 - $77 = + $343
Week Four = 1 UNDER, and O overs = $150.00 - $0.00  = +$150 as Denver completes the chase.

So with a Bankroll of about $500.00, one could potentially double to $1,016.00 in four weeks.  With a modest bankroll of $500.00, it may be better to start this chase with $5, $15, $35, $75 etc... to avoid exposing too much of your bankroll.  You could still make 50% on your money in a month.

Please check my math, I did everything by hand on a scratch pad.

Sorry Neilsy if this post is inappropriate for this thread.  Maybe another thread could be started for the NFL to avoid confusion, It's late and I'm just thinking out loud.


This is correct except with a $500 bankroll you would have enough to bet week 2.

You lose $16 in week 1 so you bankroll is $484, and you are now needing to bet sixteen $33 bets in week 2 for a total of $528.

Granted with noon, 3pm, night and monday games you could probably still do it. I'd say 2009 is a very positive outcome.  Normally I would say you need closer to $1000 to start in case the first few weeks are negative.

 

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#70
Posted: 9/3/2010 10:08:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

There was no line on the Miami game. Any inclusion of this game in the system, whether a win or a loss, is questionable. Due to a number of teams playing off board opponents, a decision on how to view these games needs to be made before one gets further into the system. Disregarding these games entirely is my vote. If you can't wager on it, why consider it for system purposes?

GL


I agree that teams playing off the board teams should just be looked as Week 1 - No play.  Then Pick up the no play teams on Week 2 like it was a Push, because we are only looking at the first 6 Weeks of the season for this system.   Week 1 began Thursday Sept 2nd.  Week 2 begins Thursday Sept. 9th.    Great start to the season last night.

When it comes to the money management side of this, it might be better to see what teams are left beginning week 3.

Hopefully Neilsy weighs in on these topics shortly.

see you at the top.
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#71
Posted: 9/3/2010 10:10:56 AM
Good start NOLE! I am laying off this system just because I can't stand martingale...Will definitely be watching and cheering everyone on though!!
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#72
Posted: 9/3/2010 11:08:41 AM

Ok so not a loss for the miami game. Did not realize it was an off board game. Explains why my book did not have it last night. The miami game I saw listed for saturday must be next weeks game vs fla.

So, I am still 3-0 on individual games.

See you guys saturday with my list of plays.

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#73
Posted: 9/3/2010 11:28:25 AM

OK. We got 5 other teams this week that start out their season against teams that will be off the board:

PSU v Yougnstown St

FSU v Samford

Iowa v Eastern Illinois

GaTech v SC St

Ark v Tenn Tech.

I guess my question would be how to bet them (and Miami) if they dont go over in week 2 or 3. Do you count week 1 when we did not bet on them as one of the over slots? So then if they are still around in week 4, we go inder?

Or, start the progression with the first over slot in week 2, and if they are still in play in week 4, go over, acting like week one never happened?

Seems like the 1st option is the way to go, b/c the system premise is that the teams start out the season not going uuuooo.

What do you guys think? Hope this made sense.

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#74
Posted: 9/4/2010 7:49:08 AM

My plays (tops 25 teams only):

Over 53
MIAMI OHIO vs FLORIDA

Over 51.5
UL LAFAYETTE vs GEORGIA

Over 56.5
TEXAS vs RICE

Over 55
NEW MEXICO vs OREGON

Over 51.5
SAN JOSE STATE vs ALABAMA

Over 57.5
UTAH STATE vs OKLAHOMA

Over 51.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY vs NEBRASKA

Over 57.5
ARKANSAS ST vs AUBURN

Over 50
OREGON STATE vs TCU

Over 43.5
NORTH CAROLINA vs LSU

Over 54.5
WISCONSIN vs UNLV

Over 50.5
BOISE ST vs VIRGINIA TECH

These are lines that I locked in last night. Don't know how they differ from the world, but that's what I got good or bad.

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#75
Posted: 9/5/2010 12:35:36 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by nolemonasses]

My plays (tops 25 teams only):

Over 53
MIAMI OHIO vs FLORIDA 

Over 51.5
UL LAFAYETTE vs GEORGIA 

Over 56.5
TEXAS vs RICE 

Over 55
NEW MEXICO vs OREGON 

Over 51.5
SAN JOSE STATE vs ALABAMA 

Over 57.5
UTAH STATE vs OKLAHOMA 

Over 51.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY vs NEBRASKA 

Over 57.5
ARKANSAS ST vs AUBURN 

Over 50
OREGON STATE vs TCU (to win 2 units)

Over 43.5
NORTH CAROLINA vs LSU 

Over 54.5
WISCONSIN vs UNLV  pending

Over 50.5
BOISE ST vs VIRGINIA TECH x2 units pending

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