NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
mlb1234 PM mlb1234
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Posted: 6/21/2010 3:49:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kreatture:

You have 2 different Unit Progressions per game when you start..

Example.. If Michigan is at Michigan State, you would a line progression start for each team..

Michigan - 1u 3u 7u 15u 31u 63u
Michigan St. - 1u 3u 7u 15u 31u 63u

So you would place 2 separate wagers, one on Michigan Over, and another on Michigan State Over.

If it wins, you win your 2 Units.. if it loses, then next game is 3u on Michigan and 3u on State, against whoever their opponents are the 2nd week.

right, so basically opening weekend each game will have a starting play of 2 units. 1u for each team

so 2u 3u 7u etc.. will be how progession looks. or you can bet each game 2x for 1u each. it will be same result win or lose

scotth69 PM scotth69
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Posted: 6/21/2010 8:57:43 PM

There was a lot of excitement for that big progression play and winning 120 units. I doubt that I have the funds and balls to play that.

If you look at week 1, 2 and 3, you will see a profit every year for ALL of those weeks. Seems to me we can make money just playing those bets and a sizeable amount. That was just flat betting and if you want to get creative with some labby lines there is probably a fair amount to be made. Especially since in each week you have games spanning multiple days not to mention multiple times.

stickbit PM stickbit
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Posted: 6/21/2010 9:48:04 PM
Thanks for sharing this info! I wonder if an alternate way to play it is wait for a team to have 3 straight o's or u's and then start a 3 gm chase for that same result in one of the next 3 gms?
sahlsa PM sahlsa
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Posted: 6/22/2010 2:34:04 PM
game number=7 and pppppp:ou margin<0 and ppppp:ou margin<0 and pppp:ou margin<0 and ppp:ou margin>0 and pp:ou margin>0 and p:ou margin>0

How come it is not possible to make the same query for NBA ? Anyone know hoe the syntax should be ?
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 6/22/2010 2:48:16 PM
very cool!

Have you considered a variation of this for the NFL/MLB or NBA?


Thanks!
Prime1 PM Prime1
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Posted: 6/22/2010 4:26:26 PM
Very Interesting!  I love this forum.  Hats off to all who contribute here. 

Keep up the great work!

At the end of this year, I want to look back and say "What Recession?"   You guys Rock!
Rocksaki PM Rocksaki
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Posted: 6/22/2010 4:38:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sahlsa:

game number=7 and pppppp:ou margin<0 and ppppp:ou margin<0 and pppp:ou margin<0 and ppp:ou margin>0 and pp:ou margin>0 and p:ou margin>0

How come it is not possible to make the same query for NBA ? Anyone know hoe the syntax should be ?


I'll see if I can find that out........

but in the NFL (even though I'm not sure how much earlier sportsdatabase goes than 1989?),

only the Raiders in 1990 have started a season with UUUOOO

while,

the Raiders in 1989, Patriots in 1994, and Jets in 1997 have started a season with OOOUUU.

Although this isn't as good as the NCAA query, it's something to take note of.

At the same time, I don't know how to take into account teams that have a bye week? How early do bye weeks start? Cuz if they start within the first 6 games, that may throw off these numbers, cuz I searched for teams in week 7.

week = 7 and pppppp:O and ppppp:O and pppp:O and ppp:U and pp:U and p:U

and

week = 7 and pppppp:U and ppppp:U and pppp:U and ppp:O and pp:O and p:O
sahlsa PM sahlsa
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Posted: 6/22/2010 5:26:41 PM
I found the syntax for NBA:

p:ou margin>0
p:ou margin<0

0<p:ou margin
0>p:ou margin

This page was a good help to get the syntax http://killersports.com/nba.py/query_matrix?&sid=guest
neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 6/23/2010 9:38:31 AM
Hey guys.. I didnt really consider this for NFL, or NBA , to me this type of  "win one unit per team" approach only makes sense  for NCAAF  with 120 Div 1 teams. ..or NCAA hoops with over 200 teams ..  you can absorb a 6 game loss and still turn a profit , whereas in NBA, NFL etc . you only have 30 units to chase.. on  6 game loss and your guaranteed a huge loss.. generally I think leagues with less teams but long seasons (NBA, NHL, MLB) lend themsleves to season long recurring type chases, whereas leagues with a lot of teams, but short seasons (College Football and hoops), lend themsleves more to a "win one unit per team approach" ,,and i don't see any value in chasing NFL at all , as there is only 30 teams and a short season ,,,  just my thoughts..
nolemonasses PM nolemonasses
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Posted: 6/23/2010 7:00:00 PM

Wow. So if you are betting to win 100 as your unit, @ -110, week one you would need to lay 13,200 to be in, right? 120 teams is 120 one unit wagers right? 120 x 110= 13,200.

I'm beat, and my math sucks when I am tired. Please let me know where I'm off here...

sportzmaniac PM sportzmaniac
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Posted: 6/26/2010 12:02:28 PM
in week one teams play each other so 60 x 110 correct? or am i missing something there.

also confused on the chase a bit and what UUUOOO has to do with anything.  are we betting that no team will start out with 6 straight unders? or just 3 straight under?  thanks.
coachnip13 PM coachnip13
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Posted: 6/26/2010 9:56:42 PM

I'm not entirely certain that I know how to create those queries, but when I looked for teams that went on an "over" streak to start the season, no one has ever gone past four straight overs. If our goal is to gain one unit per team as quickly as possible, it seems that only having to go to a fifth game is more desirable than going to a sixth or seventh game. Additionally, only nine teams even went to a fifth game, and the latest the system has ever gone is October 18th.

Like I said, I'm no expert on those queries, so someone can feel free to correct my research.

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 6/26/2010 10:41:13 PM
wow.. i think u are right coachnip ..i am gonna query this a bit more..but looks good...nice !
CInderellaStory PM CInderellaStory
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Posted: 7/1/2010 1:10:58 AM

Hey Neilsy.  I wish I knew how to run queries on the database, but I don't!  That's why I'm asking the questions.

Anyway, I'm wondering how many teams started the season with 3 straight unders and how many teams started with 3 straight overs?  If it is only a few, then forget it, but if it is a pretty good amount, why don't we wait for the first three weeks and then start our chase on week 4.  Play every team that went UUU for 1 more under and every team OOO for 1 more over.

Just a thought, not sure how many plays it would generate, though.   Thanks for the effort!

jasonb-panama PM jasonb-panama
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Posted: 7/6/2010 8:42:33 PM
How is this looking neilsy? anthing else come up with it? I am really looking forward to this NCAA season.
neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 7/6/2010 9:01:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CInderellaStory:

Hey Neilsy.  I wish I knew how to run queries on the database, but I don't!  That's why I'm asking the questions.

Anyway, I'm wondering how many teams started the season with 3 straight unders and how many teams started with 3 straight overs?  If it is only a few, then forget it, but if it is a pretty good amount, why don't we wait for the first three weeks and then start our chase on week 4.  Play every team that went UUU for 1 more under and every team OOO for 1 more over.

Just a thought, not sure how many plays it would generate, though.   Thanks for the effort!

hey Cinderella,,,wouldn"t generate that many..maybe 15-20 total .not bad ,but i think we could do better... jasonb..just looking at the stat coachnip mentioned.. i think you could wait till week 2..and then all teams that played an over week 1..start chasing to an under..or even the original plan as i laid out generated some major profits. closer to the season i am going to look at the past 5 years and see which approach would yeild the most $$.,keeping in mind that if you waited till week 2 and started a 4 game chase.. you could probably double your unit size in comparison to chasing to 6 from week one..definetely will be crunching the numbers on this closer to the season.. got some CFL and WNBA units to make in the meantime !

payday000 PM payday000
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Posted: 7/7/2010 12:29:15 AM

neilsy25 if you could make a syntax for NBA trying to find out the records for systems such as after 4 straight over or unders and then chasing the opposite for 3 games i think you will find it is quite profitable. I ran a thread many months back if you want to check it out and this strategy looked really promising. 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 7/7/2010 3:39:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by payday000:

neilsy25 if you could make a syntax for NBA trying to find out the records for systems such as after 4 straight over or unders and then chasing the opposite for 3 games i think you will find it is quite profitable. I ran a thread many months back if you want to check it out and this strategy looked really promising. 

Payday..your right,, i queried NBA back to 2005 .my query was a bit different  Iooking for 3 unders and chasing the next 4 to go over.. 100+ units each year.. the opposite (3 overs then betting under) was not as profitable or consistent..

payday000 PM payday000
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Posted: 7/7/2010 3:53:10 PM
thanks alot neilsy i guess well just have to wait untill nba season to start playing those great systems then
sahlsa PM sahlsa
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Posted: 7/15/2010 5:14:05 PM
While we wait for the games to start, does anyone know what the syntax "game number=7" is for NBA ?
SKiLLsSoLoN PM SKiLLsSoLoN
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Posted: 7/25/2010 4:16:37 AM
I know i'm kinda of last asking this but let me make sure I got the rules right:

Bet the Under on the first 3 weeks and then the next 3 weeks bet the Over?

or when they hit the Under you start betting the Over?
sahlsa PM sahlsa
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Posted: 7/25/2010 5:21:41 AM
Post #1

....therefore you simply bet every team over there first 3 games..when they hit they are done...then bet the remaining teams under the next 3, once all teams are done you are done.
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 8/28/2010 12:56:45 AM
I went thru all team's first board games from last year. My research did not agree with the chart shown earlier in this thread. I came up with 51 Over-67 Under-2 Push for the first lined games for each of the 120 NCAA D-1 teams.
The chart showed that the first games went 70 Over-50 Under. This is betting all team's first lined games over.

While this makes no difference in the end result, it does effect the number of games and money involved in week two of this system.

Please advise if I overlooked something.

GL
money4diapers PM money4diapers
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Posted: 8/28/2010 5:12:13 AM
Just notice this with Texas..in 2005-2006 season..they went 6 straights over..

i might stick with maybe just hitting the over and be it as a win for the chase.  or make it a 3 game chase..

but great find..thank you
nolemonasses PM nolemonasses
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Posted: 8/28/2010 7:43:14 AM
I wish there was a way to cut down on the number of teams. That is a lot of wagers to make in one weekend!
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