Tailing Streak Survivor Strategy

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Tailing Streak Survivor Strategy
eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/22/2010 3:22:50 PM
I know, I know, tailing someone's survivor picks is a slippery slope, and it never works.  Nevertheless, I was looking at the monthly survivor contest and noticed that the majority of those that finish in the top 50 at the end of each month (2009, 2010) have a record of 68% or better.  No one is below 60%.  Those that finished in the top 5 have finished in the 80's and 70's in terms of percentage.

I figured that at this time of the month, when players have established themselves in the contest I would tail the top 4 players for the last 9 days of the month.  It would just be a trial run, so no actual money wagered.  Just to see where I would end up if I had placed a wager on each game.

I know that the top 4 players at the present time aren't guaranteed to finish in the top four, but you have to start somewhere and they are the only one's with 17 wins so far.

Here are the players;

1) mattcurtis 17-2
2)bzg 17-3
3)hoenig32 17-4
4)gb4cp22 17-4

eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/22/2010 3:23:07 PM
Since their picks are at everyone's disposal, I won't bother posting them until the results are in.  I'll post my record, and see how I stack up against other cappers on covers, by the end of April.

It seems as though mattcurtis, who is at 15 wins in a row, probably won't be focusing on the monthly contest, so he probably won't be making picks often.
stackedpack PM stackedpack
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Posted: 4/23/2010 5:40:44 AM
ive been working on a strategy for sometime, not a finished product. Currently still tracking on when to fade and when to bet. Tracking the top 4 at this time of the month, till the end of the month will be inconsistent.  If you look at past history, 23 wins a month is a lofty number isn't always reached. I think 25 wins is the most.

Send me a pm if interested and add me as a friend. I am looking for people willing to do research with me on this and can share with you what i've found.  Like you, ive noticed the top 50 and more do well, so at what point do you tail? whom do you tail? how did they do after the 1st 10 days of the month, 1st 15? I've been trying to figure this out for awhile.  How do u know when to back off a guy or even fade them? 

lemme know, and good luck!
keldrin PM keldrin
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Posted: 4/23/2010 9:20:22 AM

Great ideas guys, looking forward to some updates!

eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/23/2010 12:33:10 PM
LA Dodgers LOSS

LA/Cinici Over 10 WON

Detroit/Angels Uder 8.5 LOSS

La Lakers +3.5 LOSS

1-3 record so far.

I kind of had the suspicion that tailing the top 4 players would be a slippery slope.  Since most seem to slip off a little towards the end.  If only there was a way at the start of the month knowing who would end in the top 50.

I'll just stick with these 4 guys, and see how it goes.  But there's still a lot more to be learned. 
bulichm PM bulichm
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Posted: 4/23/2010 2:04:57 PM
why not fade them?
eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/23/2010 4:01:06 PM
Just realized another interesting trend.  Just looking at this month alone, those at the top of the leader board almost never follow 1 loss with another loss.  Meaning that if one of the top players has a loss, it would be a very good idea to tale their next pick.

For instance, mattcurtis who lost yesterday is going with the Yankees -130 today.  Seems like a pretty good bet to tail.

I bet if someone made picks based on this trend they would have a pretty solid winning percentage.  The top 10 or 20 would have to be your sample.    
keldrin PM keldrin
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Posted: 4/23/2010 4:41:33 PM
Are the a lot of the same people consistantly in top 50 each month?
eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/24/2010 1:23:15 PM
NY Yankees LOSS

Milwaukee LOSS

San Antonio -3.5 WON

yesterday: 1-2
overall record : 2-5


Not looking good so far.
eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/24/2010 1:25:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by keldrin:

Are the a lot of the same people consistantly in top 50 each month?


I would say no.  It looks as though this game is all about people going on a lucky run.  I don't anyone in the top 5 at the end of this month, to finish in the top 50 next month.
eMatchup PM eMatchup
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Posted: 4/24/2010 1:39:29 PM
** I don't expect anyone in the top 5....
vvryan11 PM vvryan11
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Posted: 4/26/2010 8:50:23 PM
Interesting idea. I like your thinking here but I think instead of following their picks you should fade.  The combined record for those 4 players when you started tracking them was 68-13... or 83.9%.  As we all know the best cappers out there only hit between 55-60%.  When you have 4 people hitting over 80% the losses are surely bound to come and even out the percentages.  I would guess that fading over the next week - 2 weeks could show some good results. If you keep tracking this please post. Thanks and keep up the good work
keldrin PM keldrin
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Posted: 4/29/2010 9:05:02 AM
I was also thinking even tailing the top guys in ultimate race, or even choosing a few team experts and tailing them as they would get more right than wrong. Havent looked into it much though
T99 PM T99
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Posted: 5/3/2010 6:06:54 PM
I was tailing the experts and ALWAYS did well but can't get my picks in sometimes because of crazy work schedules. I have never had a streak over a six pack---- then I get depressed or whatever and don't follow any strategy which invariably results in a losing streak and/or win 1 lose 2 until I start 'thinking' again. Still manage to stay about 10 games over 50% and am hoping for one of those lucky runs mentioned by eMatchup!!!!
K4ngur13 PM K4ngur13
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Posted: 5/4/2010 12:07:19 AM
This system is a failure.  Good luck trying though.
ChuckyCheez PM ChuckyCheez
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Posted: 12/9/2012 10:02:20 PM
Did you really quit tracking after a 7 game run?  I would track for at least 50 games before I even thought about stopping.  Even at that point, it would have to be 20-30 or worse for me to stop tracking.
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