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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football System - 2 team parlays
04ppt send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#126
Posted: 11/16/2009 8:55:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoop121:

36-8 for me this weekend. Up $7500. Hoo-ah!!


how did you find 44 games this weekend to play? i found 15 games on saturday and 1 on sunday...this is the first weekend ive used this system and i did good but im curious to know what your worst week has been so far with this system?
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#127
Posted: 11/16/2009 11:23:33 PM
would someone explain this system,please
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#128
Posted: 11/16/2009 11:44:28 PM
LuckieRod,

The first thing you must do is find a game where the spread is a large percentage of the total for that game. The larger that percentage the better the play. 40% seems to be the threshold on this thread that seems to result in a profit, or at least a large profit. So a game with a 20 pt spread and 50 pt total would be a good example as it is 40%.

Once you find a game that qualifies by meeting this criteria, you must place two parlays. One parlay is the DOG and the UNDER and the other parlay is the FAVORITE and the OVER. So you are laying two parlays on the same game.

You obviously can't win both of the parlays on the same game, so a win in this system is considered when you win 1 of the 2 parlays, which results in +1.6 units (2.6 units from the win, and -1 unit from the loss, you should definitely play the same amount on each parlay from the same game). A loss would be when neither of the parlays on the game win, resulting in -2 units.

So these games must hit over 50%, approximately 55% to break even (differs depending upon parlay payouts, but 2.6 is average, and what I'm basing this on). But this system has proven to hit way higher than 60% for a sustained period of time.

The thing is that this system is definitely profitable to those who play it, even with average money management skills, but that is why it is prohibited online. No online book will accept any of these parlays in which the spread is greater than 30% of the total because it is considered "correlated". Without much explanation on that, it just is why this system is actually profitable.

So to take advantage of this, you must find a local who accepts these correlated parlays to use it.

Hope that was cleared some things up.
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#129
Posted: 11/17/2009 12:03:28 AM
I play all games 33% and up. and I play the first half, the game, and the second half. and the only thing that hasn't been profitable has been the games over 70%
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#130
Posted: 11/17/2009 1:02:41 PM

Freaky and Hoop,       

I played 8 of the games on Sat Nov 14th after I came across your thread friday. I did look into previous weeks results and it looked to me it was worth the try. It was Successful!!    

I only wish I could have found the thread weeks ago. I am excited to have another weekend to play. 2 questions:   

1) is this only good for season play or will it still be good for the bowls?

 2) what is out there for NFL?

     

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#131
Posted: 11/17/2009 3:10:37 PM

 BMonster, first off I think that the system is perfectly fine regardless time of the year or season, so it should be fine during the bowl season. I highly doubt you will be able to find many of these games during bowl season though because of the less desprecanies between team strengths. The less games, the more variance in the results, so a negative return during the bowl season is because of this variance and not because of any other reason.

You won't find many plays in the NFL either, because of the parity in the league (even at a time when parity in the league seems to be at it's lowest). You might get some games, and I would expect the same long term results from these plays in the NFL. Thing is though, like I said above, the NFL would be way more subject to large variance swings in results because of the small number of plays. With that said, if you can find a 40% or 33%, whatever cut off number you use, in the NFL, I would suggest playing it. These have to be extremely rare though.

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#132
Posted: 11/17/2009 5:00:51 PM
Last night there was a 33% spread in the 1H of the MNF game and it hit. There was a 40% variance in the second half and lost by one point. 
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#133
Posted: 11/17/2009 6:00:07 PM

Don't know if anyone has posted full year results.

2008 Full game- 98-51-4  65.7% winners

2009 (to date) Full game- 85-42-6  66.9% winners

2009 (to date) 1st halves only 91-38-11   70.5% winners. This avoids the end of game BS like sitting on the ball when you need 2 more points to go over.

An account I started with $500 is over $10000 this year starting with betting $50 per side per game. I've increased to $200 per side now. That even includes throwing money away on straight bets and other parlays/teasers because I thought I knew football. Never again. Only this system for me. I don't have the 1st half data from last year but I don't think it's necessary. 140 1st half bets is a big enough sample size to see that 1st half bets increases win by 5% and it's not just due to chance. Also for 1st half bets I've tweaked the system a little bit to use 7 and 28 total points as the parameters to consider a play.

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#134
Posted: 11/17/2009 9:04:41 PM
thanks guys
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#135
Posted: 11/17/2009 9:40:53 PM

My locals pay 12-5 on 2 teamers using the picks in post 111. I came up with  1680 in winners and 1100 in losers with a 580 profit counting PS/Ind. as a winner with the total hitting on 51 which was a push my guy had it at 52, would that be what you guys came up with 

 

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#136
Posted: 11/17/2009 10:31:35 PM
I think we all agree that this system is money, specially after last college week, i hit over 80% on 1st half and tried it on 2 NFL 1st half games for 100% Det +10/Under 24 and MNF Cleveland +7 Under/20.

Can wait to bet again on the system,  feels really good when you cash ticket after ticket. I don't think it matters if it's bowl season or not, what matters is the spread compared to the total, but it will be harder to find this kind of situation on Bowl Season. If someone cares i'm playing only games over 35% and 1st half, just because I'm seeing more profit. Looks like there could be a play tomorrow on Ball State game for the 1st half.

Good Luck everyone, and remember it's all about the money!!!
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#137
Posted: 11/18/2009 4:38:49 PM

i see around 15 games that fits this system

nevada -30 and over 58  and new mexico st +30 under 58

texas -27.5 and over 54.5 and kansas +27.5 and under 54.5

oregon st -31 and over 56.5 and washington st +31 and under 56.5

those are just a few that i saw

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#138
Posted: 11/20/2009 1:41:21 PM

are you guys playing the boise st. and utah st. using this system?

1st half boise -13.5 and 31 total = 43.5% diff

game boise -23 and 61.5 total = 37.4% diff

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#139
Posted: 11/20/2009 1:45:51 PM
yes, and i played the okie lite-colorado game last night. they won the 1H at 42% and lost the game at 37%. luckily i was loaded up on the 1H and didn't give much back on the game. 
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#140
Posted: 11/20/2009 2:24:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hoop121:

yes, and i played the okie lite-colorado game last night. they won the 1H at 42% and lost the game at 37%. luckily i was loaded up on the 1H and didn't give much back on the game. 

hoop, i didn't play the 1H yesterday so i ended down.  i'm 0-3 on this system since i took the Cent Mich 1H and full game Weds and both lost.  hopefully i can recoup some tonight.

do you usually hit the favorite and over or the dog and under?  what's your guesstimate on the percentage?

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#141
Posted: 11/20/2009 2:39:52 PM
1st Half of the Central Mich, didn't count official for this system for me, it was 30%, that I played anyways and lost haha. So rule for this week, stick only on 35% or over it's where I've seen profit.

Oklahoma St. was a crazy game and we were 30 sec. away from cashing 1st half and it ended being a push, full game clearly lost so officially for me it's 0-1-1.

Tonight we need to bounce back on Boise St. where 1st half and full game are around the 40%.

I can see plenty of games for this week incluiding an 80% game on Florida vs. florida Altantic.

Good Luck everyone...and remember it''s all about the money!!
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#142
Posted: 11/20/2009 2:59:51 PM
well I hope I'am not the one to break the camel's back cause I'am trying this for the 1st time and my luck has been trash this year. I got 9 full games but 2 are at 38% and 13 1st half games with 1 at 38%
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#143
Posted: 11/20/2009 3:32:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hoop121:

yes, and i played the okie lite-colorado game last night. they won the 1H at 42% and lost the game at 37%. luckily i was loaded up on the 1H and didn't give much back on the game. 

hoop121, sorry I"m new to this but did you win the first half because Colorado covered and total was under? Meaning did you do 2 parlays on Oklahoma+Over and Colorado/Under?

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#144
Posted: 11/20/2009 6:45:02 PM
Oak was a push for me
I got boise for full game and first half
Ill post all of tomorrows plays later tonight BOL
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#145
Posted: 11/21/2009 9:37:56 AM

Full games plays 40%+ based off my local. Gl fellas.

 

Clem -21 OV 44.5~Virg +21 UN 44.5

Tcu -31 OV 50.5~Wyo +31 UN 50.5

OrSt -31 OV 56~Wasst +31 UN 56

Tx -27.5 OV 57.5~Ks+27.5 UN 57.5

UCF -22 OV 47~Tul+22 UN 47

Nev -30 OV 59~ NMexSt. +30 UN 59

Fla -45 OV 56.5~ Flaint +45 UN 56.5

 

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#146
Posted: 11/21/2009 5:34:54 PM
LOL one of my locals just cut me off from betting these, atleast I got todays in but not doing well
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#147
Posted: 11/21/2009 7:35:50 PM

Hey Guys, Sounds interesting!  Could someone pm me and let me know which on line book is accepting these.

Best of luck!!!

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#148
Posted: 11/21/2009 8:56:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by luckierod:

LOL one of my locals just cut me off from betting these, atleast I got todays in but not doing well

Ya, I'm already on my second one...lol

Looks like 3-2 so far with 2 pending for Sat full game plays.  Not sure what 1H plays did.  Can't get those with my local.  

Tommy..online books don't offer these bets.  You need a local.  Read a couple posts back, some fellas have explained this.

 

 

 

 

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#149
Posted: 11/22/2009 1:29:15 AM
5-2 congrats on another winning day!
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#150
Posted: 11/22/2009 1:48:10 AM
First Half went 10-1-1
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