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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football System - 2 team parlays
do5000 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 9/22/2009 4:15:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMon:

Teaser's would envolve vig and that is something you do not want in this system.  Still online book's will not allow  a side and total even with a [ a teaser ] on one ticket.  You need a local or it's a no go! 

I know ive done teasers with a side and total in the same ticket (although it may have been a 10 or 13 pt teaser).

When the totals are posted ill check this out on my books and let you know.

Could be a great option, especially if you can pull out a win on both sides. although admittedly the payout will be much lower.

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#52
Posted: 9/24/2009 9:27:39 AM
5dimes and pinnacle wont allow the bets. betonline and sportsinteraction dont have all the totals up yet.
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#53
Posted: 9/25/2009 2:47:45 PM
7 plays this weekend for your system.

Texas -36        o/u 63
Navy -27.5           50.5
Florida -22           53.5
Auburn -32.5        56.5
Nebraska -27.5     53.5
Tenn -23.5            44.5
USC -45               55.5
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#54
Posted: 9/25/2009 9:11:10 PM
9/12/09: 6-3 +$540.00 (100:260)
9/19/09: 7-2 +$720.00 (100:260)
9/26/09:
 
This weeks plays based on my online book:
 
TENN -23.5 / OV 44.5    53%
OHIO +23.5 / UN 44.5
 
AUB -33 / OV 55.5   59%
BST +33 / UN 55.5
 
FLA -21.5 / OV 53.5   40%
KENT +21.5 / UN 53.5
 
TX -36 / OV 63    57%
TX EL PASO +36 / UN 63
 
USC -45 / OV 55.5   81%
WASH ST. +45 / UN 55.5
 
NEB -28 / OV 53.5   52%
UL LAF +28 / UN 53.5
 
NAVY -29.5 / OV 49.5   60%
W. KENT +29.5 / UN 49.5
 
 
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#55
Posted: 9/25/2009 10:31:21 PM
JMON,
Thanks for the great job so far.  I am a little confused on how your calculating your profit though.

9/12: 6-3, I can only get 2.5:1 but even using your 2.6 I am coming up with the following:

6 wins time 160 net profit equal 960
3 losses times 200 loss equals -600
Net Profit of $360

I do agree with your 9/19/09 result though.  Can you clarify if possible?

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#56
Posted: 9/25/2009 11:03:04 PM
IHalf...yep you are right!  Thx for the correction.  I miscalculated the W/L for that week. Not sure where the 540.00 came from on my notes... had to be the Tech game. Anyway..
 
9/12:  6-3 +$360.00
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#57
Posted: 9/27/2009 2:38:21 AM
Slow night at work so I back-tested this system for 2008-2009 season. I used all games 33% and up and even went back and took out all games between the 33-40 percentile and it didn't help the average much. Games from 33-40 were 25-18 so they were still profitable.
 
The overall record was 91-51 for a total profit of 43.6 units.
 
I'm going over 2007-2008 now.
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#58
Posted: 9/27/2009 4:10:47 AM
2007-2008 sucked for this system
 
it went 74-59 and only netted .4 units
 
I didn't have any filters on it however. I do think that the 33-39 percentiles hurt this quite a bit in this year.
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#59
Posted: 9/27/2009 10:26:42 AM
9/12/09: 6-3 +$360.00 (100:260)
9/19/09: 7-2 +$720.00 (100:260)
9/26/09: 3-4 -$320.00 (100:260)
 
If I remember right someone said this system only works for the first half of the year....with the lines starting to sharpen up in the upcoming weeks it may lose accuracy...Is this correct?
 
TENN -23.5 / OV 44.5    53%
OHIO +23.5 / UN 44.5
 
AUB -33 / OV 55.5   59%
BST +33 / UN 55.5
 
FLA -21.5 / OV 53.5   40%
KENT +21.5 / UN 53.5
 
TX -36 / OV 63    57%
TX EL PASO +36 / UN 63
 
USC -45 / OV 55.5   81%
WASH ST. +45 / UN 55.5
 
NEB -28 / OV 53.5   52%
UL LAF +28 / UN 53.5
 
NAVY -29.5 / OV 49.5   60%
W. KENT +29.5 / UN 49.5
 
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#60
Posted: 10/2/2009 10:57:11 PM
9/12/09: 6-3 +$360.00 (100:260)
9/19/09: 7-2 +$720.00 (100:260)
9/26/09: 3-4 -$320.00 (100:260)
10/3/09:
 
Local lines now...
 
CINN -29 / OV 59
MIAMI (OH) +29 UN 59
 
OREGON -35 / OV 54.5
WASH ST +35 / UN 54.5
 
BAY -21 / OV 49
KENT +21 / UN 49
 
TEX TECH -34.5 / OV 56
NEW MEX +34.5 / UN 56
 
TCU -28 / OV 52
SMU +28 / UN 52
 
IOWA -21.5 / OV 45
ARK ST +21.5 UN 45
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#61
Posted: 10/4/2009 10:15:31 AM
Jmon,
 
try doing this...
 
use this same concept, but parlay the 1H and then the 2H instead of the whole game. I'm finding that it works a little bit better. You could still do the whole game of course as well.
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#62
Posted: 10/4/2009 10:18:24 AM
Plus, lots more action!
 
Some games that wouldn't qualify for a full game will qualify for the 1H and the 2H.
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#63
Posted: 10/4/2009 2:51:53 PM
hoop...will online books accept 1H side/over parlay wagers?  How are you doing this exactly and what is your success rate?
9/12/09: 6-3 +$360.00 (100:260)
9/19/09: 7-2 +$720.00 (100:260)
9/26/09: 3-4 -$320.00 (100:260)
10/3/09: 3-2-1 +80.00 (100:260)
 
Local lines now...
 
CINN -29 / OV 59
MIAMI (OH) +29 UN 59
 
OREGON -35 / OV 54.5
WASH ST +35 / UN 54.5
 
BAY -21 / OV 49
KENT +21 / UN 49
 
TEX TECH -34.5 / OV 56
NEW MEX +34.5 / UN 56
 
TCU -28 / OV 52
SMU +28 / UN 52
 
IOWA -21.5 / OV 45   PUSH
ARK ST +21.5 UN 45
 
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#64
Posted: 10/4/2009 3:30:50 PM
I only have one local book that allows me to do this. I went 5-0-1 yesterday with it. But I monitored a few others that were successful. I was with my GF all day so it was hard for me to check every game for the 1H and the 2H, but it seems that the 1H will likely have percentages of 50% all the way up to 80% on some games. For instance, Oregon was -20 with an over of 28 in the 1H against Washington St. Tcu was -17 with an over of 26 in their first half against SMU. Both games were winners.
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#65
Posted: 10/14/2009 12:20:20 AM
I have 6-2 on the plays from this past weekend....I guess depending on where you got your Oklahoma line as it moved pretty heavy before gametime


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#66
Posted: 10/14/2009 12:31:27 PM
whitakp....btwn work and being sick,  I didn't get any plays in last week.  Looks like the system did well!   Go ahead and update the W/L record... What the hell am I talking about..this is your thread! 
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#67
Posted: 10/16/2009 4:02:23 PM
does this work in the NFL?
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#68
Posted: 10/17/2009 5:11:47 PM
Hey guys, I was really curious behind the logic and mathematics of this system. So I decided to try and work out the math behind this...

Before I go in depth, I'm basing this on the assumption that on average the favorites and dog will cover 50% of the time, and that the over and under are also a 50/50 split. I mean I know the books don't set the lines to even out the odds of winning, but I think it can be assumed that it is extremely close to 50/50.

So let's hypothetically say that the spread was 100% of the total. 50% of the time the favorite will cover, and 100% of the time that the favorite covers, the over has to hit. The other 50% of the time dog will cover, but the dog can cover with the over or the under hitting, with no real distinct edge to either the over or under. So it's 50% that the under hits when the dog covers. (This goes for game, no matter what).

So... this is a basic Bayes problem. You have a 75% chance of winning (winning one parlay bet and losing the other), when the spread is 100% of the total. (.5*1+.5*.5).

Now, on the other end, if the spread is 0% of the total, you still should hypothetically have a 50% chance of winning, so we must add a restraint to the formula.

Here is the formula for the chance of winning the parlay in mind :

W% = (Spread/Total)*.25 +.50

I went back and backtested 200+ games from the first few weeks of last NCAAF season, and ran the regression equation, and the equation was starting to regress to that above. It was something like y=x*.31+.47... I'm sure if I would have done more games, it would have even been closer.
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#69
Posted: 10/17/2009 5:27:07 PM
I realize I might not have done that good of a job explaining how I came to that formula but I could try to if anyone doesn't completely understand how I came to that.

From that formula we can test for some key numbers.

If you are betting with parlay payout odds at 13/5, the standard, you must win more than 55.56% of your games.

Here is how I got that: A win in this thread means winning one parlay on the game, and therefore losing the opposing parlay. A loss means losing both parlays. So a win would result in +1.6 units. (+2.6 from the win, and -1 from the loss) a loss results in -2 units. So to break even on these odds and returns, you'd have to hit 55.56 of your bets. (2/3.6 = .5556).

Under the same math and formulas, parlays that return 12.5/5 (2.5 to 1).. need to win at a 57.14% to break even.

..........

Now we need to find the minimum spread/total ratio or percentage that allows us to break even.

To do this you insert the break even percentage into the equation on the previous post and just solve for the (Spread/Total) variable.

To break even on 13/5 (2.6 to 1) return odds... the spread/total ratio would need to be only 22.22%....

To break even on 12.5/5 (2.5 to 1) return odds... the spread/total ratio needs to be 28.57%


I only post this because I think that this falls under mathematical rules, and back testing really isn't needed. I think back testing this is only good to make sure it regresses to my equations, which it did.

I understand that online books don't take these bets, but there can be some serious cash made if you use this with two different locals.
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#70
Posted: 10/17/2009 5:37:55 PM
Freaky,

I've been using this for 4 weeks now on the game totals, 1H totals, and 2H totals and I've made a ton of money using only the games higher than 40%.

You said you backtested 200+ games...what was the minimum percentage of sides/totals that you used when backtesting this system?
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#71
Posted: 10/17/2009 6:09:55 PM
Hoop, I back tested to only find the regression equation, I didn't really back test with the purpose to find +/- units or anything like that...

But yeah if you use 40%, that would intuitively mean that you should hit around 60% or higher...

W% = (Spread/Total)*.25+.5
W% = .6*.25+.5
W% = .15+.5
W%= .6 or 60%
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#72
Posted: 10/17/2009 6:11:20 PM
Hoop, I guess I could answer your question though by saying, I tested every game no matter the spread or total for like three weeks, which gave me somewhere around 200+ games.
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#73
Posted: 10/17/2009 6:17:12 PM
Here are today's games from NCAAF which I have..

listed in order of highest to lowest expected win %

La Tech/New Mexico St... 21.5/41.5 ... 62.95%
Florida/Arkansas ... 25.5/58.... 60.99%
TCU/Colorado St... 22/51 ... 60.78%
Marshall/West Virginia .... 21.5/51.5 .... 60.44%
Alabama/South Carolina .... 18/43.5 .... 60.34%

I mean there were a lot more games above 55.56% and 57.14%.. but those were the games above 60%, at least for the spreads and totals I had..


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#74
Posted: 10/17/2009 11:06:41 PM
  Damn Freaky. Who said you were not good at math .  My local is not taking these bets anymore.  I was the first to put these on him.   Go ahead and keep track of the system bro.
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#75
Posted: 10/17/2009 11:12:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMon:

  Damn Freaky. Who said you were not good at math .  My local is not taking these bets anymore.  I was the first to put these on him.   Go ahead and keep track of the system bro.


That sucks man, well at least you made the money while you could! In this case, some is better than none... Again, I don't think this really needs to be kept track of though man, because like I said I think everything would just regress or progress back to that equation I put up earlier.
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