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Well this isn't Sabermetric related but I have been looking for some future's wagers already. Here are some wagers I am considering. Any and all feedback is welcome and all odds are from The Greek Sportsbook.

Toronto Under 71 1/2 wins -125

Seattle Over 83 1/2 wins -110

San Francisco Over 82 1/2 wins +105

N.Y. Yankees Under 94 1/2 wins +130

Chicago White Sox Over 82 1/2 wins -135

Colorado to win NL West +245

Philadelphia to win NL East -135(stepping out on a limb there huh?)

Boston Red Sox to win AL East +145

Seattle Mariners to win AL West +165

Darkhorse,

I agree that SN did expose us to something very intriguing and something that could be very profitable. But the way he handled himself on the thread made it very difficult for people to believe him. It's not about people being to lazy or uneducated to do the work. It's about giving people who aren't used to using sabremetrics as applied to wagering the tools to use it without insulting them for asking certain questions. Certain questions like units wagered, and how that applies to strongest leans. Even people early on in the thread would get different numbers for runs created and base runs even though SN supposedly "gave all the information that we need in the thread". You don't just throw a random kid an algebra book and tell him to read it and expect him to know it in a week. You give that kid step by step instructions as plainly as possible so that kid can understand it. It's the same concept as this thread. If your readers can't grasp it's concepts then it's not the audiences fault. It's the speakers. I'm not trying to start an argument and I'm not trying to belittle SN for what he did. I'm just not sure he handles interactions with others very well. Maybe his problem has more to do with social skills than anything else. Anyways, best of luck to everyone this upcoming season.

Somebody did call him on it.  In fact a lot of people called him on it.  I was just one of them.  I actually have a difficult time believing a lot of people are still taking him seriously.

I'm telling you guys straight up and directly.  He was the sports betting version of Enron.  Start with a reasonably good idea on how to make a small amount of money.  Claim it makes an absurdly large amount of money.  Come up with a convoluted shell game to explain why losses aren't really losses.  They are actually huge profits.  Argue that its a waste of time trying to dissect this convoluted coverup.   Argue that anybody that doesn't understand the details of the shell game is stupid and that its obvious to everyone else.  Watch while the small profits turn into huge losses.  Disappear without a trace when the roof inevitably crashes in.

It wasn't only about unit management or incorrect lines.  Those were just symptoms of the larger problem.  The larger problem was that his accounting was garbage.  He was more concerned with saying he was making large profits than actually making small ones.  I suppose its OK to be a delusional know-it-all but when other people are starting to follow you and taking your bullshit at face value, you are doing a huge disfavor to society. 

For those of you that didn't see the end...reread post #506 of this thread.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100522314&page=21

I caught him in 3 obvious lies in one posting.  He never did respond to the heart of the complaint and very quickly left Covers.  I'm fairly certain that if I looked closely enough I could find many more "accounting irregularities". 

This was just such a misguided and painful thread.  Sabermetrics is a very useful subject in betting.  There are a ton of great Sabermetrics sites.  Baseballprospectus.com, baseball-reference.com, tangotiger.com, etc. etc.  Advancednflstats.com is a good one for football.  If you aren't familiar with the basic concepts (BABIP, etc).  Get familiar quickly.  It will definitely help you.

None of these sites claim that they can earn you absurd amounts or that they win 70% of their bets.  They do provide useful information and they are very aware of their own shortcomings. 

If somebody wants to replicate their formulas targeted for the gambling audience, then I will applaud.  But if you get a small amount of success and start to feel the temptation to start claiming a much higher rate than you actually earned....stop and don't ever come back.