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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB system releases...
angelobruno send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2151
Posted: 2/19/2010 9:46:18 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

Yeah, the guy who started it is MIA and won't be posting it again this year.

 

dont be so naive..he is here and its for sale most likely

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#2152
Posted: 2/20/2010 4:06:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BottomUpCeo:

GMSI,

I'm new to covers and sports betting all together. I stumbled acrossed this thread about an hr ago and i have been tryna figure this thing out i was wondering if you had any insight or can explain it a lil more n detail

 

The whole thing was bs.  The guy that started it got a little lucky early in the year and then started playing all sorts of weird accounting games to cover up the fact that it wasn't nearly as successful as he implied.  He wanted to be able to say that he won 70% of the time, which is impossible.  Instead of admitting his own mortality, he just dug deeper and deeper.  It kind of reached absurd levels during football season.  Enron had nothing on this clown.

The basic concept (use Sabermetric research in betting) was a sound one, but he kept implying he was working off of an actual formula when really...not so much. 

There are a lot of websites and books dedicated to sabermetrics. If you use them and have realistic expectations, you'll do well.  Don't bother reading through this thread...unless you need comic relief.    

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#2153
Posted: 2/20/2010 8:25:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angelobruno:

 

dont be so naive..he is here and its for sale most likely

I thought of that after i hit submit to my post.

I was more or less saying to the guy looking for more insight that the OP wasn't gonna be back on this thread and continuing to post MLB.

And after the NFL disaster he had, I hope people get smart with his antics.

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#2154
Posted: 2/20/2010 11:57:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angelobruno:

 

dont be so naive..he is here and its for sale most likely

Care to enlighten us a little... ? Has he become a tout?

GMSI

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#2155
Posted: 2/20/2010 4:48:10 PM

Tallguy's previous post sums up all 86 pages in this thread. The concept of using Sabremetrics to bet on baseball was new and can be useful. SportsNetwork, the guy who started the whole thread, refused to ever reveal his units wagered.

Whenever anyone inquired about his units wagered, he just proceeded to call them names and question their intelligence.

Personally, I would love to see this thread continued with the use of Sabremetrics as applied to Baseball wagering. I just want someone to use honest accounting practices and post units wagered BEFORE the game is played. Not after the game has been decided. If anyone wants to take charge and keep the thread going, I will be an avid follower and contributer as long as honest accounting methods are used. Regardless of winning or losing this thread is very interesting and intriguing....so long as it's honest and correct.

So if anyone is interested in keeping this thread going let me know and hopefully we can make the necessary corrections and make something useful out of this thread. Best of luck to everyone out there.

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#2156
Posted: 2/20/2010 7:46:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:

Tallguy's previous post sums up all 86 pages in this thread. The concept of using Sabremetrics to bet on baseball was new and can be useful. SportsNetwork, the guy who started the whole thread, refused to ever reveal his units wagered.

Whenever anyone inquired about his units wagered, he just proceeded to call them names and question their intelligence.

Personally, I would love to see this thread continued with the use of Sabremetrics as applied to Baseball wagering. I just want someone to use honest accounting practices and post units wagered BEFORE the game is played. Not after the game has been decided. If anyone wants to take charge and keep the thread going, I will be an avid follower and contributer as long as honest accounting methods are used. Regardless of winning or losing this thread is very interesting and intriguing....so long as it's honest and correct.

So if anyone is interested in keeping this thread going let me know and hopefully we can make the necessary corrections and make something useful out of this thread. Best of luck to everyone out there.

 

Well said, we could collaborate and create a spreadsheet and do the daily projections for each game... Anyone want to take the initiative and get this going?

 

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#2157
Posted: 2/21/2010 7:00:05 AM
GMSI, I wish I would but I lack the computer savy and knowledge to keep this sort of thing up. I understand what BaseRuns and RunsCreated are and I kinda get where the info comes from. I know SN listed sources, but I have searched them and am not quite positive where to get the exact numbers for batters vs. certain pitchers. If I could get some help I am willing to put in the work. I just need guidance and help on certain aspects. I'm willing to try the first half of the season just for into purposes. Then willing to put up some cash on the second half of the season if things go well. Let me know what you think and maybe we can get things started on this. Everyone else is welcome to contribute as always. Just let me know what you think. Thanks.
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#2158
Posted: 2/21/2010 7:01:26 AM

 just need guidance and help on certain aspects. I'm willing to try the first half of the season just for into purposes/

*sorry, I mean "just for info purposes".

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#2159
Posted: 2/21/2010 7:01:28 AM

 just need guidance and help on certain aspects. I'm willing to try the first half of the season just for into purposes/

*sorry, I mean "just for info purposes".

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#2160
Posted: 2/21/2010 12:39:33 PM
Will be using this system this season again..will also do what i can to help keep this topic up.
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#2161
Posted: 2/22/2010 12:11:50 PM
so they guy made more then he really supposed to? he is still up money ... what's the probelm?
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#2162
Posted: 2/22/2010 6:12:18 PM

K4ngur13,

The problem was the guy would never document his units wagered along with his picks before the games were played. Then after that evenings games were played, he would document his units wagered. He would often have days below .500 but because he claimed that he wagered more units on his wins than his losses, he would document the day as a winning day. i.e. SportsNetwork would have a day of going 3-5 but saying that he wagered 8 units on his wins and only 2 units on all losses and documenting that a winning day of 14 units. The problem was that he never said what his units wagered on each game was before the game was played.

The system is intriguing, and it could very well be profitable. As Tallguy said earlier, his accounting practices were awful and downright deceiving. Anytime someone questioned him on his units wagered SportsNetwork would just insult them and berate them for not "being on his level" or being lazy and not doing their own work. Despite the fact that this was his system and no one can read his mind or be in the same room with him doing the work.

As I said earlier, I do believe this system could be profitable. I am also willing to try and keep it going for this upcoming MLB season. I love Baseball and I love gambling so this would be fun for me to try and keep up with. However, I am not very good at using spreadsheets and outside of weekends I don't really have the time to try and do all the math long hand. I will try my best to keep this thread up but I can't make any promises. Any and all help is welcome. Best of luck this upcoming season to everyone.

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#2163
Posted: 2/23/2010 10:08:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:

K4ngur13,

The problem was the guy would never document his units wagered along with his picks before the games were played. Then after that evenings games were played, he would document his units wagered. He would often have days below .500 but because he claimed that he wagered more units on his wins than his losses, he would document the day as a winning day. i.e. SportsNetwork would have a day of going 3-5 but saying that he wagered 8 units on his wins and only 2 units on all losses and documenting that a winning day of 14 units. The problem was that he never said what his units wagered on each game was before the game was played.

The system is intriguing, and it could very well be profitable. As Tallguy said earlier, his accounting practices were awful and downright deceiving. Anytime someone questioned him on his units wagered SportsNetwork would just insult them and berate them for not "being on his level" or being lazy and not doing their own work. Despite the fact that this was his system and no one can read his mind or be in the same room with him doing the work.

As I said earlier, I do believe this system could be profitable. I am also willing to try and keep it going for this upcoming MLB season. I love Baseball and I love gambling so this would be fun for me to try and keep up with. However, I am not very good at using spreadsheets and outside of weekends I don't really have the time to try and do all the math long hand. I will try my best to keep this thread up but I can't make any promises. Any and all help is welcome. Best of luck this upcoming season to everyone.



THANK YOU FOR EXPLAINING. 

LAST FOR ALL, HE DID SAY HE NAILED 70% OF HIS PICKS, SO IF YOU ONLY BET SAME AMOUNT ON EACH INDIVIDUAL PICK (HE NEVER EXCEEDED -130 ODDS, CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG), YOU SHOULD BE MAKING SOME SERIOUS COIN.  AM I WRONG?
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#2164
Posted: 2/23/2010 5:01:10 PM

Someone told me to come over and look at this thread.

I'm okay (not an expert) with a spreadsheet.


If someone would go over the details of what the calculations need to be, I might be able to put something together.

Not promising anything, but I'd be willing to try and see what comes out.

Take Care,

Bart

 

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#2165
Posted: 2/24/2010 3:22:29 AM

If you really believe he hit 70% of his picks, then...

I am a Nigerian prince and I'm willing to offer you $10,000,000. 

Email me for details....

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#2166
Posted: 2/24/2010 3:48:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tallguyindc:

If you really believe he hit 70% of his picks, then...

I am a Nigerian prince and I'm willing to offer you $10,000,000. 

Email me for details....



WHAT'S YOUR E-MAIL?
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#2167
Posted: 2/24/2010 5:00:27 AM

K4ngur13,

I haven't done the math on his overall totals but I am pretty sure he wasn't close to 70%. A lot of his days were .500 or slightely below that. He did have some great days, but so can everyone else given enough opportunities. Like I said before, the problem with this whole thread was that he would have a .500 or slightley worse, but still claim to up several units due to his variance in units wagered on certain games. Unfortunately he refused to document this BEFORE the game was played. It makes his credibility a joke.

It's sad too cause even if the system hadn't worked or was modified for certain improvements it would have been worth documenting. It basically wasted a whole year over something as trivial as ego. It's unfortunate but hopefully we can salvage something from this thread and learn something from it. Best of luck to everyone.

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#2168
Posted: 2/24/2010 2:31:59 PM
From Jan. 1, 2009 to Feb. 23, 2010, Brandon Lang has lost a total of 1,883 dimes. If you bet $10 a dime you would be down $18,830. This does not include the thousands of dollars you spent on his "expert advice".
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#2169
Posted: 2/25/2010 1:49:49 AM
If this thread continues this MLB season-all selections MUST list the  amount of units being bet with the pick-PRIOR TO THE GAME. No nonsense like last year. Also-any & all questions asked about sabremetrics must be answered in a respectful way without EVER denigrating the person who is requesting the info. Looking forward to MLB.
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#2170
Posted: 2/28/2010 7:10:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:

K4ngur13,

I haven't done the math on his overall totals but I am pretty sure he wasn't close to 70%. A lot of his days were .500 or slightely below that. He did have some great days, but so can everyone else given enough opportunities. Like I said before, the problem with this whole thread was that he would have a .500 or slightley worse, but still claim to up several units due to his variance in units wagered on certain games. Unfortunately he refused to document this BEFORE the game was played. It makes his credibility a joke.

It's sad too cause even if the system hadn't worked or was modified for certain improvements it would have been worth documenting. It basically wasted a whole year over something as trivial as ego. It's unfortunate but hopefully we can salvage something from this thread and learn something from it. Best of luck to everyone.



YES, I DEF AGREE WITH WHAT YOU JUST SAID.  I ALSO NOTICED A LOT OF HIS UNDERDOGS WERE AT RIDICULOUS ODDS! WHERE I WAS GETTING THEM AT +125 HE WOULD HAVE THEM AT +165

I THINK I MAY GO THROUGH THIS THREAD WHEN  I HAVE A MOMENT AND SEE WHAT HIS RECORD WAS.  HIS OVERALL. 

UNLESS SOMEONE HAS IT PLEASE POST IT - WILL SAVE ME A LOT OF HOURS


THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR RESPONSES, MUCH APPRECIATE IT.
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#2171
Posted: 2/28/2010 9:02:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gold6185:

If this thread continues this MLB season-all selections MUST list the  amount of units being bet with the pick-PRIOR TO THE GAME. No nonsense like last year. Also-any & all questions asked about sabremetrics must be answered in a respectful way without EVER denigrating the person who is requesting the info. Looking forward to MLB.

I say start a whole new thread with MLB Sabermetrics in the title.

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#2172
Posted: 2/28/2010 9:07:59 PM
Nole..is this your recommendation for system baseball wagering? 
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#2173
Posted: 2/28/2010 11:56:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

I say start a whole new thread with MLB Sabermetrics in the title.




WHO KNOWS THAT HE ACTUALLY COMING BACK? ALL THIS TALK MAY BE FOR NOTHING
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#2174
Posted: 3/1/2010 1:56:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by K4ngur13:



YES, I DEF AGREE WITH WHAT YOU JUST SAID.  I ALSO NOTICED A LOT OF HIS UNDERDOGS WERE AT RIDICULOUS ODDS! WHERE I WAS GETTING THEM AT +125 HE WOULD HAVE THEM AT +165

I THINK I MAY GO THROUGH THIS THREAD WHEN  I HAVE A MOMENT AND SEE WHAT HIS RECORD WAS.  HIS OVERALL. 

UNLESS SOMEONE HAS IT PLEASE POST IT - WILL SAVE ME A LOT OF HOURS


THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR RESPONSES, MUCH APPRECIATE IT.

 

There were just too many inaccuracies to count.  They weren't even hidden very well.  I'm sort of convinced that if you looked closely you'd find a whole lot of other ones we didn't even see yet. 

But why do you really want to bother? Its sort of like a house inspection, once you know you don't want to buy the house, do you really care if it needs 5 expensive fixes or 50?

 

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#2175
Posted: 3/1/2010 3:02:50 PM

TallGuy is right, there were too many to count, but the amazingly blatant problem is that he did not post units.  It just doesn't make any sense at all.  I have to admit he talked a good game and I bought into at times, but there really is no credibility to his claims whatsoever.

If anyone is considering backtracking his wins and losses, don't waste your time.  There were nights he was posting over/unders and his picks were a full run away from the actual line.  He would post a pick of Under 9.5, and you wouldn't be able to find any trace of the line besides it opening at 8.5 and closing at 8.

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