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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB system releases...
sports_Network
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#76
Posted: 5/7/2009 2:01:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gambool:

Hello, I'm new to this forum and hope I will learn a lot !

I have studied the Base Runs formula and if I understand correctly, you use batter vs pitcher stats, but I'd like you to explain how you process since we only know the starting pitcher, so how do we integrate changes of pitcher during a game ? As for hitters, do you use the last game lineup ? Maybe you could post an example of how you procede for a given game if that's not too much to ask, although I understand that it's not the definitive version of your system, that would still be interesting to study.
I have apply the Base Runs formula for some teams using the overall average stats per game, but the only thing that gives me is the runs expectation which is irrelevant for a special matchup.

Note that english is not my native language so I apologize for any mistakes.

Your anglais is good

to answer your question regarding pitching, each team has a designated "middle relief" pitcher or pitchers, and one "closer" which must be studied in detail; their appearance is predictable, as is the starting line-up, that is intact with stationary variables..

The exact formula that I am initiating in this experiment can be found at the Wikipedia link on page 1 of this thread, or for more in-depth information, you can contact the innovator of Base_Runs formula, Tom Tango, at tangotiger.com .. or through the Seattle Mariners, where he's employed as a sabermetric, statitician/projectionist. For the record, he's not a gambler, which keeps his handicapping skills "pure".....best regards

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#77
Posted: 5/7/2009 3:11:30 PM
MLB formulated system plays Thursday 05/07/09  Phase XIV
 
                               Nationals+135
                               A's-109
                               Yankees-157
 
                               Phillies vs Mets OVER 10
                               Tigers vs WhiteSox UNDER 9.5
                               BlueJays vs LAA UNDER 9.5
 
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#78
Posted: 5/7/2009 6:15:46 PM
Thanks for your playsgood luck to us all
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#79
Posted: 5/7/2009 8:55:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Your anglais is good

to answer your question regarding pitching, each team has a designated "middle relief" pitcher or pitchers, and one "closer" which must be studied in detail; their appearance is predictable, as is the starting line-up, that is intact with stationary variables..

The exact formula that I am initiating in this experiment can be found at the Wikipedia link on page 1 of this thread,



Thanks for your answer your help is greatly appreciated.
I have questions about that wikipedia article.
Wich form of the Base Runs formula are you using ? I'm guessing you calculate Individual Base Runs for every player in the team vs starting pitcher and then add up all the results to get the expected runs of the team ?
I'll take a look at it tomorrow, you already gave me some nice ideas to work with.
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#80
Posted: 5/7/2009 9:41:22 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gambool:



Thanks for your answer your help is greatly appreciated.
I have questions about that wikipedia article.
Wich form of the Base Runs formula are you using ? I'm guessing you calculate Individual Base Runs for every player in the team vs starting pitcher and then add up all the results to get the expected runs of the team ?
I'll take a look at it tomorrow, you already gave me some nice ideas to work with.

I am using the "runs created" form, invented by David Smyth, which creates the game, inning by inning, in advance, and initiates a projected final score, based on sabermetric calculations, as described in the published; system outline, innovated by TomTango, incorporated into Base_Runs formulated system.......

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#81
Posted: 5/8/2009 12:53:46 AM
Sports_Network, Curious question, with the success of your picks so far, do you ever wager on your picks?
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#82
Posted: 5/8/2009 2:04:03 AM
great job sport..keep up the good work...system looks very good and interesting..i know its not easy and quick to handicapp all these games every day but i just want to say that we thank you for your hard work..good luck to you my friend and i hope you win a ton of cash
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#83
Posted: 5/8/2009 2:33:13 AM
I have to agree with CLINT and say that I appreciate everything you are doing with this. I would love to learn how to do this but dont really know how to start it or understand it entirely. I just came across this thread today and tailed with the 3 plays, I already had the CHW UNDER but the other two were strictly off your post.

If it is not too much work Id love to see a sample of a game that you have the numbers for and see if I can come close to copy the steps. 
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#84
Posted: 5/8/2009 7:05:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

Sports_Network, Curious question, with the success of your picks so far, do you ever wager on your picks?

Yes, with applied unit/management incorporated into the system.

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#85
Posted: 5/8/2009 10:03:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clint2463:

great job sport..keep up the good work...system looks very good and interesting..i know its not easy and quick to handicapp all these games every day but i just want to say that we thank you for your hard work..good luck to you my friend and i hope you win a ton of cash

thx for the kind, and encouraging words; they are truely appreciated,an un-expected compliment..It is you, that 'will' win a "ton of cash" trust me on this one........

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#86
Posted: 5/8/2009 10:28:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

I have to agree with CLINT and say that I appreciate everything you are doing with this. I would love to learn how to do this but dont really know how to start it or understand it entirely. I just came across this thread today and tailed with the 3 plays, I already had the CHW UNDER but the other two were strictly off your post.

If it is not too much work Id love to see a sample of a game that you have the numbers for and see if I can come close to copy the steps. 

It is pleasing to hear the system has brought success in your direction..congratulations on your wins.

I have no problem answering your questions, or explaining the Base_Runs system/formula, while Iam documenting, but I strongly recommend you review the entire thread in detail from it's conception. It's quite, self explanatory....then we'll talk, yes, it is way to much work at this moment, without review..

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#87
Posted: 5/8/2009 10:32:10 AM
hey sports,

I don't really get how you use the Tango system to calculate Base Runs as there are too much variables for me that I can't find anywhere.

Anyway, I tried to use the basic version of wikipedia on the National vs Dodgers game yesterday and found a score of 13-4, Nationals for the win. Are the results you found for this game close of my numbers ? They seem huge to me.
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#88
Posted: 5/8/2009 11:22:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gambool:

hey sports,

I don't really get how you use the Tango system to calculate Base Runs as there are too much variables for me that I can't find anywhere.

Anyway, I tried to use the basic version of wikipedia on the National vs Dodgers game yesterday and found a score of 13-4, Nationals for the win. Are the results you found for this game close of my numbers ? They seem huge to me.

Hey! great call, and impressive, my numbers where Nationals 11 Dodgers 3..exclude the first inning,(6 runs, that were not predicted, but happened) and what do have? 14 correct, 11+3=14 This was my strongest lean, based on Manny Ramirez's bat being eliminated from the LA line up along with all sabermetric stats that he carries with him..at +135 the value was there, and was the 3rd time this season that the Nationals were a feature play that the system brought forward, needless to say, I went 'large' on the Nationals, and was successful for the third consecutive time..

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#89
Posted: 5/8/2009 12:00:53 PM
Network, could you please assist me here if not too much trouble.  I understand the Base Runs formula:
 
Base Runs = A*B/(B+C) +D.

Here is a version which includes some minor categories in which certain players excel:

A = H + BB + HBP - HR - .5*IBB

B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*(BB+HBP-IBB) +.9*(SB-CS-GDP)] *1.1

C = AB - H + CS + GDP

D = HR

I have two questions.   First, I have access to the yearly averages for these stats - is that what plug into the formula for each team?  and what is "IBB" in the calculation for A and B variables?  Thanks in advance...

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#90
Posted: 5/8/2009 1:25:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by manifesto:

Network, could you please assist me here if not too much trouble.  I understand the Base Runs formula:
 
Base Runs = A*B/(B+C) +D.

Here is a version which includes some minor categories in which certain players excel:

A = H + BB + HBP - HR - .5*IBB

B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*(BB+HBP-IBB) +.9*(SB-CS-GDP)] *1.1

C = AB - H + CS + GDP

D = HR

I have two questions.   First, I have access to the yearly averages for these stats - is that what plug into the formula for each team?  and what is "IBB" in the calculation for A and B variables?  Thanks in advance...

NO, not yearly....lifetime averages, this is essential.

IBB=intentional base on balls..

                                                       The best to ya

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#91
Posted: 5/8/2009 2:04:44 PM
MLB formulated system plays Friday 05/08/09  Phase XV
 
                                      Astro's-150
                                      Yankees-105 RL
 
                                      Nationals vs Diamondbacks OVER 10
                                      Giants vs Dodgers UNDER 8.5
                                      Mariners vs Twins OVER 9
                                      Rangers vs WhiteSox OVER 10.5
                                      Royals vs LAA UNDER 9
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#92
Posted: 5/9/2009 1:02:50 AM
wow great work today sportsnetwork hit almost all your picks. helped me alot thanks man i will continued follow your picks. keep up the good work 
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#93
Posted: 5/9/2009 1:45:47 AM
keep up the good work sport...5-2 last night,shoulda been 6-1  damm wash game they must have left 200 men on base....system is looking great so far...once again thank you for all your hard work and for sharing this with us...hope you made a ton of cash last night...i have a feeling this system will make you some serious cash soon...good luck my friend,have a great day
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#94
Posted: 5/9/2009 3:05:35 AM
Great night once again!! I actually laid off the NATS after going to watch them play Wednesday against LAD when they seemed to leave everyone baserunner on. 

A few questions:
Do we run the formula for each player starting?
and if so do we use only the stats when facing the pitcher before?

I read earlier in the thread where you said that you have to find stats against the RP and the closer.... would this mean that this would work well betting the first 5 innings? Most of the games the Starter would go all 5 meaning that you wouldnt gave to guess who is going to be coming in from the pen.

This is working great for now and dont want to change anything but I thought a question wouldnt. Thanks for the time.

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#95
Posted: 5/9/2009 6:39:18 AM
What an interesting thread . Never read so much about the use of stats in this kind of context but the results are pretty damn convincing. Thanks for sharing with us here and BOL with the upcoming "releases" .
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#96
Posted: 5/9/2009 6:54:16 AM
Great System Plays again last night !!!!

Thank You sports_Network


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#97
Posted: 5/9/2009 10:01:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Hey! great call, and impressive, my numbers where Nationals 11 Dodgers 3..exclude the first inning,(6 runs, that were not predicted, but happened) and what do have? 14 correct, 11+3=14 This was my strongest lean, based on Manny Ramirez's bat being eliminated from the LA line up along with all sabermetric stats that he carries with him..at +135 the value was there, and was the 3rd time this season that the Nationals were a feature play that the system brought forward, needless to say, I went 'large' on the Nationals, and was successful for the third consecutive time..



Cool, i'll try to do it again for today's games and will see what you come up with. I'm wondering how you make the decision of playing for the O/U or for the game.
Nice picks for yesterday by the way...5/7
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#98
Posted: 5/9/2009 11:09:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

NO, not yearly....lifetime averages, this is essential.

IBB=intentional base on balls..

                                                       The best to ya


Hi network just a few questions if its not too much trouble.
When you plug the stats into the formula, do you put each individual players and then add them up? because i can find all the stats but having trouble figuring out how to go about it after i find them. thanks for all your help. 
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#99
Posted: 5/9/2009 11:40:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

Great night once again!! I actually laid off the NATS after going to watch them play Wednesday against LAD when they seemed to leave everyone baserunner on. 

A few questions:
Do we run the formula for each player starting?
and if so do we use only the stats when facing the pitcher before?

I read earlier in the thread where you said that you have to find stats against the RP and the closer.... would this mean that this would work well betting the first 5 innings? Most of the games the Starter would go all 5 meaning that you wouldnt gave to guess who is going to be coming in from the pen.

This is working great for now and dont want to change anything but I thought a question wouldnt. Thanks for the time.

Yes, starting line-up vs starter-middle relief-closer....Yes, only lifetime stats, batter vs pitcher..

I was wondering how long this scenario would take, to be brought to the forefront. Yes, it works more successfully in 5 innings, the stats are different, which makes the plays different, you would not use the exact plays that are used in the previous Phase's(some yes, some no) good question!

the middle relieve pitchers are designated, and predictable, based on who worked last, righty, lefty ect, ect,  the rest are classified as 'clean-up'...best regards

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#100
Posted: 5/9/2009 11:53:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kC1234:


Hi network just a few questions if its not too much trouble.
When you plug the stats into the formula, do you put each individual players and then add them up? because i can find all the stats but having trouble figuring out how to go about it after i find them. thanks for all your help. 

No, strictly batter lifetime stats, against pitcher he's facing only..you would have to prepare sabermetric stats for 4 pitchers on each side...

note:  manifesto has published the prescribed outline of  your question, directly above, in his post...best regards

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