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Author: [Poker] Topic: Dwan can bluff with 72 off but can he be successfully bluffed on TV for big money?
scalabrine send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
scalabrine
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#1
Posted: 3/4/2011 1:17:41 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR5I6K6RopU 

 Wow...
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samuelsosa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 3/5/2011 2:34:14 AM

gotta love it. Up against one of the most aggressive players in the world and after DWAN bets every street including 97k on the river, you say all in for 145k TOTAL! [giving dwan 8:1ish on a call]. If Dwan had a hand marcello looks like a fool. BUT he did not. So Marcello gets praised [by me] for making a GREAT READ on dwans bluff. At that point you have to know  that dwan cannot call on the river even getting 8:1 and he did.

dwan has to be hitting himself for betting 97k at that point instead of all in because marcello would of insta-folded.....BUT cant blame dwan, the 97k bet looks stronger than an all in and thats what he wanted to seem [stronger] ......scalabrine, interested on your analysis of the hand. I see you put 2 balls there so im assuming you think that was a very ballsy play and id have to agree. Now that I think about it though this play couldnt possibly be +EV.....but regardless, it was a great read on a very tough opponent and he stuck with it and won a nice sized pot

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#3
Posted: 3/5/2011 5:03:57 PM
i hate dwan with a passion so this made me very happy
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Iw1nBets send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 3/6/2011 11:02:10 AM
I liked this
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scalabrine send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 3/6/2011 2:18:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

gotta love it. Up against one of the most aggressive players in the world and after DWAN bets every street including 97k on the river, you say all in for 145k TOTAL! [giving dwan 8:1ish on a call]. If Dwan had a hand marcello looks like a fool. BUT he did not. So Marcello gets praised [by me] for making a GREAT READ on dwans bluff. At that point you have to know  that dwan cannot call on the river even getting 8:1 and he did.

dwan has to be hitting himself for betting 97k at that point instead of all in because marcello would of insta-folded.....BUT cant blame dwan, the 97k bet looks stronger than an all in and thats what he wanted to seem [stronger] ......scalabrine, interested on your analysis of the hand. I see you put 2 balls there so im assuming you think that was a very ballsy play and id have to agree. Now that I think about it though this play couldnt possibly be +EV.....but regardless, it was a great read on a very tough opponent and he stuck with it and won a nice sized pot


Thanks for at least initiating a conversation about the hand. That is the only way we will all improve. The two  were just for the fact Marcello presented Dwan with those pot odds with air. 

What did I think about Marcello otherwise?

I think the play was atrocious. 

The only reason it worked was because the hand was played so horribly on Marcello's part.

Marcello does a standard button raise pre-flop. He could have any two cards. Dwan gives him credit for nothing most likely.

Dwan pops him $7,500 and he calls. Dwan has to at least put him on a small pocket pair, suited connectors or an Ace with a Q or worse kicker. I think Dwan put him on the last of those 3.

Flop is 863 rainbow so if Marcello had medium connectors he may have hit. But if he hit, he should raise the 16.5 Dwan bet to see where he was at. When he calls, he most likely didn't hit so Dwan has the confidence to two-barrel.

Why did he call the flop? I think Marcello played the hand like the worst of a 2/4 limit player who just tryies to catch a pair on the turn or river and gets annoyed by being bullied.

The turn is a 4 (blank) and Dwan pretty much knows it doesn't help his opponent.  He correctly fires again for 36.5. This is why Dwan is one of the most feared heads-up players in the world. He is one of the best at applying maximum pressure at nosebleed stakes on every street and you simply can't put him on a hand.

Marcello inexplicably just calls. Awful...

River is, for all intents and purposes, another blank pairing the board and Dwan plays the hand perfectly by firing 97K. 

Marcello, I think just tired of getting bullied and frustrated he misses, impulsively pushes without even knowing how much he really had left. 

This gave, as you noted, around 8:1 pot odds which means that if Marcello is bluffing more than 11% of the time here, Dwan should call.

Fortunately for Marcello, Dwan didn't even have Ace high (he could have easily had AK, AQ or any pair giving the hefty pre-flop raise out of position, which would have allowed him to call the river with such a small re-raise). Without an A, Dwan may think he misread Marcello and that Marcello had the small pocket pair and he filled up on the river.

When Marcello turns over K9 off, Dwan correctly is like WTF ; not out of anger, but as a way of asking him what in the world he was thinking.

Marcello played the hand like a monster (and didn't know it) and if Dwan had AQ or better, Marcello gets felted. Terrible poker...

Fortunately for him, Dwan also was bluffing every street and Marcello scoops the pot...Still an entertaining hand nonetheless...


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#6
Posted: 3/6/2011 5:40:45 PM

I dont know Scal. Im not too familiar with luckexpress but I'm gonna assume he knew he was giving dwan 8:1 on the river. Maybe he put him on a 97 and ran with it. Like i said this couldnt possibly be +EV but it worked. If you break this down street by street it might be ugly, but if on the flop marcello put him on a 97 and said im going to showdown unless he improves, then I say its a very good read. You say if tom dwan had AQ or better, marcello gets felted, well I say Marcelo was EXTREMELY confident, he didnt.

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scalabrine send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 3/6/2011 11:24:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

I dont know Scal. Im not too familiar with luckexpress but I'm gonna assume he knew he was giving dwan 8:1 on the river. Maybe he put him on a 97 and ran with it. Like i said this couldnt possibly be +EV but it worked. If you break this down street by street it might be ugly, but if on the flop marcello put him on a 97 and said im going to showdown unless he improves, then I say its a very good read. You say if tom dwan had AQ or better, marcello gets felted, well I say Marcelo was EXTREMELY confident, he didnt.


We'll agree to disagree and here's why:

1. Why are you floating Tom Dwan in the first place? Dwan will three-barrel with the nuts just as much as he'll three-barrel with air. Therefore, he has to three-barrel the river with at least 80k leaving Marcello around the pot-odds above to bluff with. If Dwan gives up, the float works because then you can shove, but is Tom Dwan, one of the most aggressive high stakes players on the planet, going to river check with 126k in the pot. Maybe <5% of the time and he didn't check, ruining any real bluff possibility (8:1 is not a bluff possibility even though it worked) that would put pressure on Dwan if he actually had a small pocket pair. 

2. Marcello say at the end of the clip, "I decided before to do it (bluff)"...Really Marcello? If Dwan shoves the river, you can't call with K 9 for all your money, therefore you lose. You simply can't decide to bluff the river without knowing Tom's bet first. And Tom played it perfectly. 

It was SO insane, Tom couldn't possibly think he'd shove with that little extra. Unfortunately for Tom, he did.
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