Posted: 3/6/2011 2:18:25 PM
Originally Posted by samuelsosa
gotta love it. Up against one of the most aggressive players in the world and after DWAN bets every street including 97k on the river, you say all in for 145k TOTAL! [giving dwan 8:1ish on a call]. If Dwan had a hand marcello looks like a fool. BUT he did not. So Marcello gets praised [by me] for making a GREAT READ on dwans bluff. At that point you have to know that dwan cannot call on the river even getting 8:1 and he did.
dwan has to be hitting himself for betting 97k at that point instead of all in because marcello would of insta-folded.....BUT cant blame dwan, the 97k bet looks stronger than an all in and thats what he wanted to seem [stronger] ......scalabrine, interested on your analysis of the hand. I see you put 2 balls there so im assuming you think that was a very ballsy play and id have to agree. Now that I think about it though this play couldnt possibly be +EV.....but regardless, it was a great read on a very tough opponent and he stuck with it and won a nice sized pot
Thanks for at least initiating a conversation about the hand. That is the only way we will all improve. The two
were just for the fact Marcello presented Dwan with those pot odds with air.
What did I think about Marcello otherwise?
I think the play was atrocious.
The only reason it worked was because the hand was played so horribly on Marcello's part.
Marcello does a standard button raise pre-flop. He could have any two cards. Dwan gives him credit for nothing most likely.
Dwan pops him $7,500 and he calls. Dwan has to at least put him on a small pocket pair, suited connectors or an Ace with a Q or worse kicker. I think Dwan put him on the last of those 3.
Flop is 863 rainbow so if Marcello had medium connectors he may have hit. But if he hit, he should raise the 16.5 Dwan bet to see where he was at. When he calls, he most likely didn't hit so Dwan has the confidence to two-barrel.
Why did he call the flop? I think Marcello played the hand like the worst of a 2/4 limit player who just tryies to catch a pair on the turn or river and gets annoyed by being bullied.
The turn is a 4 (blank) and Dwan pretty much knows it doesn't help his opponent. He correctly fires again for 36.5. This is why Dwan is one of the most feared heads-up players in the world. He is one of the best at applying maximum pressure at nosebleed stakes on every street and you simply can't put him on a hand.
Marcello inexplicably just calls. Awful...
River is, for all intents and purposes, another blank pairing the board and Dwan plays the hand perfectly by firing 97K.
Marcello, I think just tired of getting bullied and frustrated he misses, impulsively pushes without even knowing how much he really had left.
This gave, as you noted, around 8:1 pot odds which means that if Marcello is bluffing more than 11% of the time here, Dwan should call.
Fortunately for Marcello, Dwan didn't even have Ace high (he could have easily had AK, AQ or any pair giving the hefty pre-flop raise out of position, which would have allowed him to call the river with such a small re-raise). Without an A, Dwan may think he misread Marcello and that Marcello had the small pocket pair and he filled up on the river.
When Marcello turns over K9 off, Dwan correctly is like WTF
; not out of anger, but as a way of asking him what in the world he was thinking.
Marcello played the hand like a monster (and didn't know it) and if Dwan had AQ or better, Marcello gets felted. Terrible poker...
Fortunately for him, Dwan also was bluffing every street and Marcello scoops the pot...Still an entertaining hand nonetheless...