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tmoss387 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/3/2012 12:33:34 PM
the olympics are just over 3 weeks away..  hopefully we can find some value in either team or individual events and earn some cash...
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#2
Posted: 7/10/2012 11:12:36 PM
Ive looked at 5 or so medal predictors and it seems the lines are way off. I have bets on 7 of the top 10 countries att with + money where the predictor being on my side 4 out of 5 times on average.
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#3
Posted: 7/10/2012 11:23:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fija1001:

Ive looked at 5 or so medal predictors and it seems the lines are way off. I have bets on 7 of the top 10 countries att with + money where the predictor being on my side 4 out of 5 times on average.

?
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#4
Posted: 7/10/2012 11:35:37 PM
I messed up spelling but how it that hard to follow. There are lines posted for total gold medals for each nation. Ive looked at a number of olympic medal predictors weather it be a machine or people who have predicted medals in the past and been accurate. Ive seen that almost all the nations o/u for medal is a bit off with most of the odds being in the the + money favor. Being +EV for betting on the lines.
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#5
Posted: 7/11/2012 12:07:10 PM
I love Russia to have more Gold medals than GB+Northern Ireland at -175... 5 units on that... also love US more Gold Medals than China at -170... 5 units on that...
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#6
Posted: 7/11/2012 11:47:07 PM
tt, those seem solid..  i dont see how the u.s. could possibly lose the gold medal race to the chinese, and in the grand scheme of things  -170 isnt bad...   waiting for 5dimes to put out individual events
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#7
Posted: 7/13/2012 9:25:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by txtechpika:

I love Russia to have more Gold medals than GB+Northern Ireland at -175... 5 units on that... also love US more Gold Medals than China at -170... 5 units on that...


That is almost free money.

Wow.
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#8
Posted: 7/13/2012 9:38:06 PM
-170 is a garbage price. Look and you'll find -145 for most golds
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#9
Posted: 7/13/2012 10:12:46 PM
Where did you find that Russia over GB + NI bet?
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#10
Posted: 7/13/2012 10:18:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Where did you find that Russia over GB + NI bet?


1.64 sportsbet
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#11
Posted: 7/13/2012 10:22:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



That is almost free money.

Wow.


really?

what do you base that on, population size, russia isnt the USSR anymore .

dont under estimate homefield advantage, GB has a lot of genuine gold contenders as well
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#12
Posted: 7/19/2012 9:36:03 AM

bovada has lines up on most individual events..

also  russia is now  -210 on 5dimes

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#13
Posted: 7/19/2012 12:16:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mr_bollox:



really?

what do you base that on, population size, russia isnt the USSR anymore .

dont under estimate homefield advantage, GB has a lot of genuine gold contenders as well


Homefield isn't enough to matter for GB/NI with regards to this prop.  It's not the same "advantage" a China or a U.S.A. would enjoy, tbh.  If it were GB/NI vs. a country they have historically been even with at the Olympics, then yes, worth a shot, but not against the Russians.  It will take a pretty big collapse on the Russians part to have the British and Northern Irish beat them out in the gold medal count.
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#14
Posted: 7/21/2012 12:16:19 PM

what kind of gold medal threats do poland and greece have ?

5dimes has   usain bolt golds vs greece golds,  and missy franklin golds vs poland golds

 

i would favor bolt over greece, and poland over franklin, anybody have any insight on the greeks or poles ?

 

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#15
Posted: 7/21/2012 5:25:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tmoss387:

what kind of gold medal threats do poland and greece have ?

5dimes has   usain bolt golds vs greece golds,  and missy franklin golds vs poland golds

 

i would favor bolt over greece, and poland over franklin, anybody have any insight on the greeks or poles ?

 



Poland had three golds in the last two Summer Olympics.

Greece had 4 in 2000, 6 in their home 2004 Olympics, 0 in 2008.

Franklin will be in seven events and she holds the world record in two of them.

Tough calls on both props.  Good luck!


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clepto
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#16
Posted: 7/21/2012 7:44:40 PM
I wouldn't touch a gold prop against the home side. Look what just happened in Vancouver with Canada setting a country and Olympic record for most golds at a winter games. GB is going to be winning gold(s)in cycling for sure.
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#17
Posted: 7/21/2012 8:13:12 PM
Rowing and cycling are GB's strong disciplines
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#18
Posted: 7/22/2012 11:17:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clepto:

I wouldn't touch a gold prop against the home side. Look what just happened in Vancouver with Canada setting a country and Olympic record for most golds at a winter games. GB is going to be winning gold(s)in cycling for sure.


Bad comparison, imo.  Canada is all about winter sport.  Sure, they have competitors in summer events, but it's not like you're going to see a Canadian in most or any track and field or swimming events.  Like has been said, cycling and rowing.  zzzzz....

Winter events are different though as the whole country is geared toward winter sport, so homefield advantage in the winter olympics would be much more massive for Canada than if they hosted the summer olympics.

GB isn't really geared around either summer or winter sport so I don't see their homefield being big enough a factor to overtake Russia.
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#19
Posted: 7/23/2012 10:42:27 PM
I wouldn't discount GB entirely


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#20
Posted: 7/24/2012 3:47:18 AM
Australia vs France most gold medal h2h Aus 1.85 France 1.95? I like the Aussie's, especially as plenty of chances for medals in the pool
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#21
Posted: 7/24/2012 2:56:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GSP10:

Australia vs France most gold medal h2h Aus 1.85 France 1.95? I like the Aussie's, especially as plenty of chances for medals in the pool


Australia or no play.  Looks solid. 
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#22
Posted: 8/6/2012 11:40:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by txtechpika:

I love Russia to have more Gold medals than GB+Northern Ireland at -175... 5 units on that... also love US more Gold Medals than China at -170... 5 units on that...

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clepto
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#23
Posted: 8/6/2012 11:41:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



Bad comparison, imo.  Canada is all about winter sport.  Sure, they have competitors in summer events, but it's not like you're going to see a Canadian in most or any track and field or swimming events.  Like has been said, cycling and rowing.  zzzzz....

Winter events are different though as the whole country is geared toward winter sport, so homefield advantage in the winter olympics would be much more massive for Canada than if they hosted the summer olympics.

GB isn't really geared around either summer or winter sport so I don't see their homefield being big enough a factor to overtake Russia.

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#24
Posted: 8/6/2012 11:41:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clepto:

I wouldn't touch a gold prop against the home side. Look what just happened in Vancouver with Canada setting a country and Olympic record for most golds at a winter games. GB is going to be winning gold(s)in cycling for sure.

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