Django's AFL 2012 thread

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Luckylunchbox PM Luckylunchbox
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quote#101
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:27:30 AM
Like it  GL
Zman01 PM Zman01
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quote#102
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:19:31 AM

Pies win by 12 goals

Django PM Django
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quote#103
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:31:48 AM


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Django PM Django
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quote#104
Posted: 5/4/2012 10:44:44 PM
Brisbane were competitive last year against the Bombers at home, up until half time, then Bombers won comfortably by 36 points.

Last meeting at Docklands in 2010 was a 27 point win to Brisbane, in 09 a draw at the G and a 43 point win at home for the Lions.

Kind of same scenario as last night. Essendon coming off an extended break may be a little off and underestimate the Lions who are due to bounce back from some poor performances up forward, roof is closed at Etihad so weather is a non issue.

Although that tough game last week in the heavy wet conditions may cause some tired legs for the Lions late in the game. As a Lions fan my usual instinct is to lean against them. Bombers do have the capacity for a blowout here, but like last night the line is a little high to take with any confidence so I'm gonna chance the 1-39 and hope Lions show something today but don't bloody pull the upset of the round!

They have enough talent on the field to be competitive they just need to put it together for 4 quarters.

Bombers by 32 points.

Essendon 1-39 1u @ 2.40 (sportsbet)

Selwood and Lonergan late outs for Cats, line has dropped a few points, not sure about this game now. Melbourne have kept it close the past few weeks when they were expected to be blown out. Cats off that waterpolo game in Brisbane.






Django PM Django
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quote#105
Posted: 5/4/2012 11:35:37 PM
Cats 1-39 .4 @ 3.00 (pinny)
yysmer PM yysmer
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quote#106
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:18:38 AM
what does 1-39 mean?
Luckylunchbox PM Luckylunchbox
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quote#107
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:21:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:

what does 1-39 mean?

There winning margin
Django PM Django
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quote#108
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:05:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:

what does 1-39 mean?


As LL said winning margin, we have margin props on AFL as well as the spreads. They are shown as 1-39 or 40+ basically a team winning margin over/under 6.5 goals

Aussie books offer them on NBA too 1-10 and 11+ they can be good value especially when the spread falls about halfway between them and the fave covering isn't feeling like a smart bet and the dog winning su is highly unlikely.

I think I may have cooked it today, should have gone on Lions pessimism instead of playing the stats.


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quote#109
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:25:50 AM
Bombers 1-39

Cats 1-39

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Not the right games to take margins on.
Django PM Django
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quote#110
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:38:41 AM
Down week for the Suns, while they played well against North, Dockers are a much better team. Can't cap this one under 40 points.
Dockers -36.5 1u @ 1.91 (sportingbet)

Freo by 55 points.

Swans 1-39 is almost becoming a cert play of the week, Crows usually match up well with Swans. I don't see Swans winning by much more than the 24 point spread. Swans by 16.
Sydney 1-39 1u @ 2.15 (sportsbet)


Django PM Django
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quote#111
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:03:07 AM
Hawks to bounce back after last weeks loss to the Swans and beat the shitty Saints quite comfortably. I hope...

Hawks -23.5 1u @ 1.98 (pinnacle)
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quote#112
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:25:20 AM
friggin purple penis eaters.

How the hell do Suns play like this without Ablett, arguably the best player in the comp and to rub it in on SEN as the game ends there's a plug for gamblers helpline. So I'm going to buy beer, come home and gamble some more.

Dockers -36.5 1u @ 1.91 (sportingbet)

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Lets go Swannies and Hawks.
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quote#113
Posted: 5/5/2012 8:22:10 AM
Swans

Hawks

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quote#114
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:28:14 AM
Doing all my plays now, up late boozing, don't think I'll be up in time let alone care for football and gambling tomorrow. I'll care about winning and getting back in the + though

Blues -90.5 1u @ 2.10 (sportsbet)

Poo Power +5.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)

Weagles 1-39 1u @ 2.25 (sportsbet)
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quote#115
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:03:10 PM
Carlton vs GWS Over 197.5 @ 1.90 (bet365)
Django PM Django
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quote#116
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:03:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Carlton vs GWS Over 197.5 1u @ 1.90 (bet365)


fixed
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quote#117
Posted: 5/6/2012 6:52:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



Blues -90.5 1u @ 2.10 (sportsbet)
Carlton vs GWS Over 197.5 1u @ 1.90 (bet365)
Poo Power +5.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)

Weagles 1-39 1u @ 2.25 (sportsbet)

 




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quote#118
Posted: 5/11/2012 5:50:56 AM
Hawthorn 40-59 .4u @ 4.10
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quote#119
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:43:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Hawthorn 40-59 .4u @ 4.10


Hawks by 66

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quote#120
Posted: 5/11/2012 10:07:55 PM
Gold Coast Suns 1-39 1u @ 2.20 (sportsbet)

Tigers -2.5 .5u @ 2.00 (bet365)

Crows ML .5u @ 2.23 (pinnacle)

Essendon -7.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)

Collingwood -26.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinnacle)


Django PM Django
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quote#121
Posted: 5/12/2012 8:16:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Gold Coast Suns 1-39 1u @ 2.20 (sportsbet)

Tigers -2.5 .5u @ 2.00 (bet365)

Crows ML .5u @ 2.23 (pinnacle)

Essendon -7.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)

Collingwood -26.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinnacle)




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Django PM Django
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quote#122
Posted: 5/12/2012 10:20:44 PM
North are 1-4 against the Doggies in their last 5. North off the trip to Perth for the Sunday twilight game. Doggies off the Friday night game with a few extra days rest. Aside the loss to the Saints Dogs haven't been too bad, were competitive with Adelaide and Collingwood, think they will upset the Roos today.

Western Bulldogs +20.5 1u @ 1.97 (pinny)
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quote#123
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:04:25 PM
Bulldogs ML .4u @ 4.29 (pinny)
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quote#124
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:51:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:


Western Bulldogs +20.5 1u @ 1.97 (pinny)

Bulldogs ML .4u @ 4.29 (pinny)


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kiwipride1983 PM kiwipride1983
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quote#125
Posted: 5/13/2012 2:02:53 AM
Nice call on the Dogs Django. Surprised Nth Melb didn't turn up today with a full strength roster, at home too!
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