Miami at Buffalo (11/15/2012)

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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Miami at Buffalo (11/15/2012)
Animus54 PM Animus54
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Posted: 11/15/2012 10:41:02 AM
Bills=$$$$$$$ cha Ching!!!
degengambler34 PM degengambler34
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Posted: 11/15/2012 10:41:08 AM
Bills just cuz they're at home, neither teams very good honestly, the dolphins have played over their heads but really have no weapons other than bush on offense. The bills have a decent offense , stephen jacksons out but that may actually be ok cuz spiller is electric. Bills defense is atrocious so like i said very small play on bills just for some degen action also. 
Brasato PM Brasato
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Posted: 11/15/2012 10:55:09 AM
if the game was being played in cold water I'd go Dolphins, but it's being played on the ice cold turf, obvious choice Buffalo -1
Strongsideline PM Strongsideline
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Posted: 11/15/2012 11:05:16 AM
hhmm - bills lost close to NE & held the texans close into the 4th Q. miami cooled off a bit over the last couple of weeks. Rush D, played well all season, was crushed by CJ. Luck threw for >400yds against them. I think the Bills will score more than expected. Bills -1
kmoney88 PM kmoney88
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Posted: 11/15/2012 11:19:01 AM
bills at home are very tough, add consistent running game, fitzy's composure...miami's qb just can't compare...i see an easy cover by bills tonight  GL
Sammy_Ace PM Sammy_Ace
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Posted: 11/15/2012 11:30:50 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by forkball:

Vegas has been brutal to the public on Thursday nighters.  I'm staying the course. . .FINS

I don't think the public is going to be "all over" the Bills.  And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Colts cover on Thursday night last week?  It doesn't get more public than that!

After careful consideration, I am circling the wagon with the Buffalo Bills tonight.  I just don't like the rookie quarterback going on the road with a short work week, especially after that abysmal performance vs the Titans.  Andrew Luck was able to pull it off last week against a hopeless Jacksonville team, but I think the Bills will be more up to the task tonight. 

I am backing the Bills even though there are 2 strong trends in place that says I shouldn't.  First, Miami is 8-0-3 ATS in their last 11 road games when an underdog of 3 points or less. Second, Miami has been 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when facing an AFC East opponent.  Well as they say in Wall Street, "past performance is not indicative of future returns".

If there were ever a time for this trend to end, it would be tonight. Buffalo is on a 3 game bender, losing a heartbreaker at home to Tennessee (they played them much tougher than Miami did), and then losing on the road to two of the best teams in the AFC, the Texans and the Patriots. After playing back-to-back road games against two of the AFC's finest, Buffalo will finally get some home cooking and return to the comfy confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium.  Buffalo doesn't normally support a strong home field advantage.  In fact, they actually have a lousy home field advantage with their one straight up win and cover coming against the Kansas City Chiefs all the way back in week 2.  That's right Buffalo hasn't won a home game since week 2. 

Well, with Buffalo sporting a lousy home field advantage and Miami being quite the opposite, you are probably wondering why I am on the Bills bandwagon?

Well, tonight things will be a little different, and I expect the home field advantage to be much stronger for 2 main reasons.  First, this is the first prime time home game in Orchard Park since 2008.  And this may shock some people, but the Buffalo Bills website has recently reported that the game has been sold out!!  Buffalo normally doens't sellout any games, as Ralph Wilson Stadium is usually running at about 85% capacity. The temperature is also supposed to be in the low 30s at kickoff, and we all know that the boys from South Florida aren't used to playing in those conditions.

Unless you guys could talk me out of it, I'm taking the Bills tonight.           

eazy123 PM eazy123
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Posted: 11/15/2012 11:37:29 AM
Come on DoC let's operate!!!
eazy123 PM eazy123
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Posted: 11/15/2012 12:09:36 PM
Sammy gotta love your info!!always love reading what's on your mind bro..thanks!!
harleygrant PM harleygrant
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Posted: 11/15/2012 1:06:43 PM
Bills at home large!
farr18 PM farr18
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Posted: 11/15/2012 1:28:10 PM
Ok, im from buffalo so i know my bills all to well, 1st off they r the worse team in the league in prime time games, (look it up) 2nd they were able to stay with new england because new england has no defense at all, bills scored more then 20pts vs teams who rank in the bottom half in defense, vs the top half teams they average 9pts a game, miami is 8th in defense  and they will shut down the bills offense, fred jackson is out and trust me spiller is no feature back, he gets all his yards on stretch plays, stevie johnson is hurt as well but playing, with both teams coming off a short week ...my picks r under and miamiand im very confident in that...


farr18 PM farr18
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Posted: 11/15/2012 1:31:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

I don't think the public is going to be "all over" the Bills.  And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Colts cover on Thursday night last week?  It doesn't get more public than that!

After careful consideration, I am circling the wagon with the Buffalo Bills tonight.  I just don't like the rookie quarterback going on the road with a short work week, especially after that abysmal performance vs the Titans.  Andrew Luck was able to pull it off last week against a hopeless Jacksonville team, but I think the Bills will be more up to the task tonight. 

I am backing the Bills even though there are 2 strong trends in place that says I shouldn't.  First, Miami is 8-0-3 ATS in their last 11 road games when an underdog of 3 points or less. Second, Miami has been 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when facing an AFC East opponent.  Well as they say in Wall Street, "past performance is not indicative of future returns".

If there were ever a time for this trend to end, it would be tonight. Buffalo is on a 3 game bender, losing a heartbreaker at home to Tennessee (they played them much tougher than Miami did), and then losing on the road to two of the best teams in the AFC, the Texans and the Patriots. After playing back-to-back road games against two of the AFC's finest, Buffalo will finally get some home cooking and return to the comfy confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium.  Buffalo doesn't normally support a strong home field advantage.  In fact, they actually have a lousy home field advantage with their one straight up win and cover coming against the Kansas City Chiefs all the way back in week 2.  That's right Buffalo hasn't won a home game since week 2. 

Well, with Buffalo sporting a lousy home field advantage and Miami being quite the opposite, you are probably wondering why I am on the Bills bandwagon?

Well, tonight things will be a little different, and I expect the home field advantage to be much stronger for 2 main reasons.  First, this is the first prime time home game in Orchard Park since 2008.  And this may shock some people, but the Buffalo Bills website has recently reported that the game has been sold out!!  Buffalo normally doens't sellout any games, as Ralph Wilson Stadium is usually running at about 85% capacity. The temperature is also supposed to be in the low 30s at kickoff, and we all know that the boys from South Florida aren't used to playing in those conditions.

Unless you guys could talk me out of it, I'm taking the Bills tonight.           

the bills do usually sell out games your 100% wrong on that one, almost every game is a sell out, just maybe not in time for a blackout, but usually its a late december game when it means nothing to them, thrust me i live in buffalo i know these things
CanadaCup PM CanadaCup
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Posted: 11/15/2012 1:41:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by farr18:

the bills do usually sell out games your 100% wrong on that one, almost every game is a sell out, just maybe not in time for a blackout, but usually its a late december game when it means nothing to them, thrust me i live in buffalo i know these things

I'll be at Rich Stadium tonight.  Let's go Bills!

Sammy_Ace PM Sammy_Ace
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Posted: 11/15/2012 1:59:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by farr18:

the bills do usually sell out games your 100% wrong on that one, almost every game is a sell out, just maybe not in time for a blackout, but usually its a late december game when it means nothing to them, thrust me i live in buffalo i know these things

Interesting....according to wikipedia, the average attendance at Ralph Wilson the last two years has been at 62,950.  Thats well below the 74,000 seating capacity.  I'm still sticking with the Bills.  Plus W8lifter is on the Bills.  What more do you need to know?  lol 

W8LIFTER PM W8LIFTER
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:11:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

I'll be at Rich Stadium tonight.  Let's go Bills! 


W8LIFTER PM W8LIFTER
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:13:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

Interesting....according to wikipedia, the average attendance at Ralph Wilson the last two years has been at 62,950.  Thats well below the 74,000 seating capacity.  I'm still sticking with the Bills.  Plus W8lifter is on the Bills.  What more do you need to know?  lol 


_Guru_ PM _Guru_
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:15:30 PM

Everyone seems to be on Buffalo and the line has shifted 3 points already. I'm kind of surprised. I thought it'd be more split. 

3 of Miami's 5 losses were by 3 points. And the other two were the season opener at Houston and Sunday's debacle. A huge let down game where their best offensive player only had 5 touches and was benched. Miami and Bush will have a lot to prove.

Both of these teams have to travel on a short week. Buffalo will not have Fred Jackson and Johnston is banged up too. MIami won in Buffalo last year. The fact that Miami had that let down game tells me they will come out with a lot to prove here. They allowed their first 100 rusher in 22 games. I'm sure the defense was proud of that and will have Spiller on lock.

I like Miami to play a much better defensive game this week and get Bush involved early. Waiting until game time to see if it gets to +3

frlouro PM frlouro
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:23:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by farr18:

Ok, im from buffalo so i know my bills all to well, 1st off they r the worse team in the league in prime time games, (look it up) 2nd they were able to stay with new england because new england has no defense at all, bills scored more then 20pts vs teams who rank in the bottom half in defense, vs the top half teams they average 9pts a game, miami is 8th in defense  and they will shut down the bills offense, fred jackson is out and trust me spiller is no feature back, he gets all his yards on stretch plays, stevie johnson is hurt as well but playing, with both teams coming off a short week ...my picks r under and miamiand im very confident in that...



I couldn't agree more with your assessment.  At first glance I really liked the Bills, played the Pats real tough and Miami looked like a JV high school football team against Tennessee.  But as you stated above, Fred Jackson is a huge piece of that offense, not only with his playing ability but leadership as well.  He will be missed.  In addition, I always like backing stronger defenses over offenses. Especially an offense that is mistake prone.  Also, look at the Red Zone conversions and special teams in this one.  Miami has the edge in that.

And in stating the obvious, the bills will try and exploit the Miami secondary and the Dolphins will try and exploit the Bills rushing defense.  The Bills are the best remedy for a RB like Bush to get over his slump. Plus Bills don't make things happen on defense so I expect Tannerhill to play a little better and not turn the ball over.

I am from the Boston area and farr18 is right, the Pats have no secondary.  We can just score a ton of points on you and win.  Miami will present Fitzpatrick with more of a challenge.  

Dolphins and the Under but more on the Dolphins

Good luck all!
Animus54 PM Animus54
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:59:20 PM
friggin Vegas already jacked up the line. Bills -1 (-135). C'mon now just because every1 betting in the bills not fair to raise up the money line. guy. Lol
2datrack628 PM 2datrack628
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Posted: 11/15/2012 3:49:21 PM
I like Miami's chances here. After getting blown out on Sunday they basically sat there and rest after the first 3 quarters, while Buffalo played a tough game to the end. Ill take the dog!
loulo13 PM loulo13
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Posted: 11/15/2012 3:52:15 PM
  • With a win Miami will be at 500%
  • 2nd in New Englands division and have good hopes of making playoffs
  • Buffalo is LAST in rush defense, Reggie Bush all night (NO FUMBLES 2 NIGHT)
  • Miami is top 5 in rush defense
  • Pass Defense is a joke on both sides
Miami is the pick.
BOL 2 ALL
Jlavin PM Jlavin
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Posted: 11/15/2012 3:53:19 PM
Hey all, This site disgusts me now, no avatars (our identities) , You browse to a page and you get a full page ad, forcing you to use browser back button, then go to the page again.....I'm really looking for a new home, any suggestions?    ....oh and Miami +3 is teh play.
Jlavin PM Jlavin
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Posted: 11/15/2012 4:42:38 PM
Not a retarded picks site, a REAL cappers site...and you know, considering Covers.com farms our data for the Expert picks pay portion, you would think they would not alienate us.....
greekbanker PM greekbanker
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Posted: 11/15/2012 5:01:15 PM
Miami (+3) is the play today.
Thanks for this great line to the public, loving you.
finche9 PM finche9
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Posted: 11/15/2012 5:15:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by forkball:

Vegas has been brutal to the public on Thursday nighters.  I'm staying the course. . .FINS


This is true and with F.Jackson out, R.Fitz is going to have too much pressure on him to perform and the Miami 'D' eats it up. Don't forget, they are a top rated solid 'D' still. They have shown it a few times this year, the question is, will they bring it tonight..??
To me, this is a pretty simple one, I MAY BE WRONG BUT..

POUND THE DOLPHINS!! They bounce back just enough to beat the bills by 7 or more. I think the game ends 24-17; or 24-14, MIAMI
finche9 PM finche9
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Posted: 11/15/2012 5:19:42 PM
MIAMI!!!

Note: Before anyone says anything, yes even with F.Jackson Out, they still have Spiller, but that was a luxury..having two solid backs switch off so that the other could rest and get back to 100% before the next offensive string. I think R.Bush is going to run all over the Bills just like he did last time. Look at what the Pats run game did last week...!!! It was a joke, a couple of the run Td's in the red zone, Edelman and Ridley weren't even touched!! The Bills run 'D' is atrocious.
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