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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: New England at Buffalo (09/30/2012)
PeteyRose send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 9/28/2012 4:05:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vietdeity86:

My favorite bet! Reverse line movement.... Opened at +7 and now it's +4 with public all over NE!! GIVE ME THE BILLZ

I tracked some reverse line movements this year and actually found that the reverse side actually lost more than it won....just saying.
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#27
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:18:30 AM

NEng  32

BUFF  27

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#28
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:51:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PeteyRose:


I tracked some reverse line movements this year and actually found that the reverse side actually lost more than it won....just saying.

Im having a spectacular year so far doing my own thinking so let's see what happens. Im 12/15 for the season with about 8 of those against the public.
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#29
Posted: 9/29/2012 9:48:13 AM
lol you guys are ridiculous. Saying Lock of the week is not going to affect the outcome of the game. What could possibly affect it, could be the amount of money going down on NE. That is the only thing that scares me...(but not really). I mean the bills suck for one, so I don't see anyway for them to rig this without it being totally obvious. This is one of those games where one team is just so much better than the other...and they made plenty from the public last week. This is their little "Free beer" gift they giving back to keep you in the action. Take NE and enjoy the blowout. I agree with the 41-21 prediction. But I honestly doubt the bills break 14 pts. 

Why in the world anyone would pick the bills? Please give some reasons? lol just cuz they lost to baltimore someone said they were staying away? Sounds like a bookie trying to scare people off a good bet. lol how silly.
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#30
Posted: 9/29/2012 9:52:04 AM
I think at the same time, they're hoping they can get as many suckers on the bills as they can...because you know they have to let the public win. And NE is going to be public no matter what...so their goal with this line is to fool the sharps I'm guessing after the way things have been going. I do see this as the lock of the week, but if Tom Brady gets abducted by aliens at half time, then you really never know what could happen. Then bills might stand a chance, so just stay tuned for this game and enjoy whatever happens.
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#31
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:02:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mgmprofits:

I think at the same time, they're hoping they can get as many suckers on the bills as they can...because you know they have to let the public win. And NE is going to be public no matter what...so their goal with this line is to fool the sharps I'm guessing after the way things have been going. I do see this as the lock of the week, but if Tom Brady gets abducted by aliens at half time, then you really never know what could happen. Then bills might stand a chance, so just stay tuned for this game and enjoy whatever happens.

If that was true the line wouldn't be 3.5... it would be 5.5 to 6.5 if they knew NE was gonna be at LEAST two field goals ahead and they wanted to sucker as many on bills as possible. 
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#32
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:18:45 PM
Seems like it, but that's not always the case. The books don't always know and they do make the wrong lines many times. I've always said I'd be a much better linemaker than the ones we have now. Bottom line is, the books have overrated buffalo, because they know the public has overrated them. I guess. I just know they are overrated and the spread is wrong. They should of went bills +17 and see how many suckers they could get on the bills. Seriously that would make yall wonder! lol
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#33
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:22:57 PM
Also it could be reverse psychology. The lower the line, the more chances they have to fool the sharps. They do give gifts purposely sometimes. But these gifts are like from the devil, if you know what I mean.

But this is a gift or an incorrect spread imo. I don't think they are trying to really sucker many people on the bills. And if you think they have to switch it up all the time to keep us confused. I know they absolutely love sites like this, where we got 200 conflicting opinions...just to confuse people even more. Just go with your gut. 

Anyone's gut ACTUALLY say Buffalo in this one??
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#34
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:33:36 PM
I apologize for the contradiction, I never meant that they were trying to suck the public in. I meant the opposite, it's a gift for the public, but what I meant is that they are trying to get as many suckers on the bills as they can, meaning suck the 30% or whatever they can get on the bills. And how funny they may even think the bills stand a chance. I don't see it.
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#35
Posted: 9/29/2012 7:31:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mgmprofits:

Also it could be reverse psychology. The lower the line, the more chances they have to fool the sharps. They do give gifts purposely sometimes. But these gifts are like from the devil, if you know what I mean.

But this is a gift or an incorrect spread imo. I don't think they are trying to really sucker many people on the bills. And if you think they have to switch it up all the time to keep us confused. I know they absolutely love sites like this, where we got 200 conflicting opinions...just to confuse people even more. Just go with your gut. 

Anyone's gut ACTUALLY say Buffalo in this one??

Mine.... =)

I just think that vegas knows people think NE won't disappoint again and thats where they'll take advantage. NE games are widely popular bets so theres no reason to give this one away. 
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#36
Posted: 9/29/2012 9:21:52 PM
The lines have nothing to do with sucking people in. I don't understand why so many bettors think that the bookmakers set lines to try to trap people. They set lines to try to get the same amount of people to bet on both sides, simple as that. In this case they know that even though the Patriots went to the Super Bowl last year they are struggling now and therefore the Bills have a good chance at home. Consequently, they will not make the Patriots a big favorite because if they did, all of the money would go on Buffalo and if Buffalo covered they would take a beating. Simple as that. 
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#37
Posted: 9/29/2012 9:41:17 PM
Like New England here, probably a small play though.. don't see them going 1-3, but Brady hasn't really done much so far this season.. seems like their offense is taking a bit to adjust
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#38
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:08:17 PM
Hernandez - out
Edelman - out
Gronkowski - out
Starting left guard Logan Mankins - out

I don't think this will be as "easy" as you all are making it out to be.  It's not a gift.  It's a struggling Pats team who will basically be relying on a newcomer in B. Lloyd and W. Welker who hasn't been himself all season.  S. Ridley can't stay on the field because he can't block.  Did you see last week's game when Woodhead played and Ridley sat?  This Pats team is struggling offensively and is not the team they have been the past few years.

I'd be cautious with this one. 
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#39
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:09:14 PM
Sorry, Gronk is not out.  He did make the trip, but he will be playing injured.  I don't know how good or bad the hip is.  I'd still be cautious either way.

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#40
Posted: 9/30/2012 3:55:55 AM
Home Dog More Than A Field Goal Take It Ur Not Gettin The Same Patriots.Bills only Losing By -2.67 a Game Pats Winning By +6.00 a Game Ur Gittin some Here Still.Hit The Over Here Also They Average51.99 a Game
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#41
Posted: 9/30/2012 3:58:59 AM

My Bad Bills are Winning Games By +2.67 A Game.

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#42
Posted: 9/30/2012 6:03:35 AM

Tom Brady , enough Said

Ne 34

Bills 14

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#43
Posted: 9/30/2012 7:08:05 AM
NE lost last week to a VERY good Baltimore team that for the longest time has been known to one of the most elite defenses in the league!  Come on now, it's not everyday that you put up 30 pts again Ray Lewis.  Even in that game, there were questionable calls that could've easily led the Pats to the victory instead of Baltimore.  The combined W/L of the Pat's oppenents this year is 7/3 and 2 of those 3 loses belong to the sad and wandering Titans.  Besides that the 2 last teams the Pats played have a combined record of 6/1.  Those last 2 games they lost by a combined 3 points.  1 to the Ravens and 2 to the Cardinals.  They smashed the crappy Titans the 1st week.  This says A LOT about NE.  They're not the crappy team that all these idiot reviewers are making them out to be and the Bills will find out this week by the thrashing that Belichick will be giving them.  Also he'll want to make the most out of that fine he's paying for last week.  Fell sorry for the Bills this week...  

Now the Bills, yes they have an amazing running game and I'm so thankful that I have Spiller on my fantasy team but he's out with Jackson coming back after weeks of not playing since week 1.  He will be rusty but will get some yardage against NE.  Ok let's look at the Bills opponents so far this year.  An abismal 3/7 this year.  The Browns have a staggering 0 wins and the Chiefs only 1.  The only team the Bills played so far this year with a +.500 record is the Jets.  Guess what?  The Jets beat Miami and the Bills so far this year.  A far cry away from top teams.  Their one loss did come to previous Super Bowl winning team, the Steelers which wasn't a surprise.

Money on the Pats to EASILY cover on this one and I'll be going with the Packers for the revenge win for that disgusting referee call last week on MNF!  

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#44
Posted: 9/30/2012 8:26:01 AM

BRADY HASNT LOST 3 GAMES IN A ROW SINCE 2006.PATS LOCK

 

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#45
Posted: 9/30/2012 8:32:12 AM
In regards to vietdiety86,

The fact that NE is widely popular is actually WHY I think they will give this one to the public. There is reasons for them to do this. .and this one's more than obvious at least for the ML, but they did throw some elements in there to try and fool people. But I saw right through it, which made NE an even stronger bet for me.

. I wish you luck too, you may be due for a loss with that nice record of yours.. 
I dont have NE in every single play of mine, but I'm more than confident they will win the game at least...so one thing worries me is how many people have NE in their teasers. But I think that is just one game...lots of people also have CIN and I think JAC will beat them. Just one example of how they can screw your entire teaser bet if you try to pick the obvious games, those are the ones that mostly lose. But the key word is "Mostly" This pats pick is a gold mine seriously.
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#46
Posted: 9/30/2012 8:35:37 AM
lol@mikeM tryin to jinx. lmao
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#47
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:04:33 AM
You guys are out of control!  WHAT, the football gods have just been mean to the Pats thus far?  They won't lose 3 in a row....Belichik is mad.....Brady Brady Brady.......Get off the Pats Co....K.  How about some facts:  

In the same position last season, at home as a 7 point dog, the Bills beat the Pats and the line by 10 points.  

Buffalo has some new pass rushers that are starting to put some hard pressure on QB's.  They built this D line for Brady. 

Buffalo is 3rd in the league in rushing.  Spiller out...yes....Jackson....no.  Rainy weather = rushing and rushing = advantage Buffalo.  

Edelman and Hernandez are OUT.  Gronk is banged up and if he plays will do more blocking than route running.  

Go ahead and legally rob your bookie.....play the public play.....Pats -4.  I say sucker bet.  It's the LOCK OF THE WEEK but the line has moved .5 pts this week.  FISSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHYY.  Vegas gonna make some money on you boys.  

BUFFALO +4.

The football gods will mistreat the Pats for at least one more.  
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#48
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:17:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vietdeity86:

My favorite bet! Reverse line movement.... Opened at +7 and now it's +4 with public all over NE!! GIVE ME THE BILLZ
Dude, for christ sakes think about what you say,then ask yourself how it makes any sense that even if the Pats opened at 7,and that public all over pats the the line could go down instead of up.
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#49
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:52:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

Dude, for christ sakes think about what you say,then ask yourself how it makes any sense that even if the Pats opened at 7,and that public all over pats the the line could go down instead of up.

you need to ask yourself..... are pats giving points or receiving..... then you should go find yourself a helmet and rethink your math.

Anyways, BOL people. 

Bills +4 Max unit play for me.
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#50
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:59:21 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by vietdeity86]

you need to ask yourself..... are pats giving points or receiving..... then you should go find yourself a helmet and rethink your math.

Anyways, BOL people. 

Bills +4 Max unit play for me.
[/Quote  Christ your dumb, but i'm on the Bills with ya hoss!
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