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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Baltimore at Philadelphia (09/16/2012)
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#1
Posted: 9/11/2012 8:22:25 AM

Away:  Baltimore [1-0 ATS]
Home:  Philadelphia [0-1 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Baltimore:
Passing: Joe Flacco (299)
Rushing: Ray Rice (68)
Receiving: Dennis Pitta (73)

Philadelphia:
Passing: Michael Vick (317)
Rushing: LeSean McCoy (110)
Receiving: Jeremy Maclin (96)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 9/11/2012 10:56:13 PM
looking at philly 
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#3
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:15:28 AM
RAVENS WILL COME AFTER VICK BROWNS, PICK 4 TIMES BETTER D.RAVEN UNDER IS MAYBE
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#4
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:23:33 AM
anybody who takes phil and vick dumb behind is crazy.. phil
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#5
Posted: 9/12/2012 3:22:18 PM
tough to win in philly for any team, vick won't throw 4 picks this game

leaning philly to bounce-back with just as much or even more talent on BOTH sides of the ball

will wait a couple more days to see where this line goes
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#6
Posted: 9/12/2012 5:48:55 PM
Philly may play better and its tough to win there but the Ravens are playing with purpose, like Balt LB better than philly and front 4 about even, would give lean to Balt if Suggs there, rb are even Philly has better wr but Vick is def a liability, if he runs he better have that jacket on, Start warming up Mr Foles

Ravens +2.5
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#7
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:34:28 PM
I want some Philly backer to give me a substantive analysis about why Philly is at -1. 

The PHI DEF is untested. Sorry Weeden, Richardson, and Little? No way. Any DEF could solve that riddle. 

The PHI OFF looked dismal against an average unit. Vick isn't just rusty. He hasn't been the same since that first amazing season back. Over his last 14 games, spanning the 2011 and current season, he's got 20tds v 18ints. And only 1 rushing TD. F*ck that crap, HE AIN'T RUSTY!...dude's struggling.

Meanwhile, BAL completely destroyed a good CIN team in every way. Flacco looks better than ever in that fast break offense. 

Lastly, BAL almost made the SB last year. PHI imploded last year.

I'm throwin hard on this unless someone can show me otherwise. Please do. If it's good, I'll take what you got and lay off.
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#8
Posted: 9/13/2012 1:05:36 AM
$$$Philly$$$
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#9
Posted: 9/13/2012 10:54:09 AM

This is one of those games that seem too easy to be true.  after last week who wouldnt take Bal.  But this is the NFL and teams turn it around in a hurry.  I look for Philly to look alot stronger than their poor performance in Cle.  (although they did still win).

Give me PHI -1.  fading the public.

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#10
Posted: 9/13/2012 11:53:04 AM

BALTIMORE  + 1

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#11
Posted: 9/13/2012 5:28:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cyrusdarius:

I want some Philly backer to give me a substantive analysis about why Philly is at -1. 

The PHI DEF is untested. Sorry Weeden, Richardson, and Little? No way. Any DEF could solve that riddle. 

The PHI OFF looked dismal against an average unit. Vick isn't just rusty. He hasn't been the same since that first amazing season back. Over his last 14 games, spanning the 2011 and current season, he's got 20tds v 18ints. And only 1 rushing TD. F*ck that crap, HE AIN'T RUSTY!...dude's struggling.

Meanwhile, BAL completely destroyed a good CIN team in every way. Flacco looks better than ever in that fast break offense. 

Lastly, BAL almost made the SB last year. PHI imploded last year.

I'm throwin hard on this unless someone can show me otherwise. Please do. If it's good, I'll take what you got and lay off.

im not a philly backer (although im an eagles fan) but there's a few things im looking at. firstly you can take one game and think thats how things are going to always be. you shouldnt expect the eagles offense to play as bad as they did, and you shouldnt expect the ravens offense to play as well as they did

secondly, the ravens are almost unbeatable at home, but they are very pedestrian on the road. if im not mistaken they are 8-8 in their last 16 on the road (someone correct me if im wrong), this is the same ravens team that lost to the seahawks, chargers, and jags the road last year

thirdly, the game got out of hand on for the bengals but they ran the ball well against them. shady should do well against them too. and also you dont know how healthy ed reed is, and with these quick wideouts the eagles have, he needs to be ready

fourthly, this is almost the same situation the ravens were in last year. they played a division foe in pitt, blew them out and came out VERY FLAT the next week against the titans and loss.

lastly, vegas is telling you to take the eagles. with SO MANY people putting SO MUCH money on the ravens and most lines barely moving. vegas isnt in the business of losing money, they think the eagles are going to win this game

i hope i helped a little bit, i think imma lay something on the eagles. ive been burnt too many times with those "too good to be true" lines
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#12
Posted: 9/13/2012 6:38:33 PM

That rookie on the Browns should have picked Vick in the end zone last week and the Eaglets are 0-1, and this line is Ravens -3.5 or something like that. I guess there's a lot of Philly Phuckheads creating this "line" - remember, Browns still covered, though.

Philly is scaring nobody, Vick is scaring nobody. If Flacco and the Ravens "D" play half as good as they did against the Bungles, this is a blowout by halftime.

Ravens +1 all day every day

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#13
Posted: 9/13/2012 7:30:17 PM
Eagles
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#14
Posted: 9/13/2012 8:58:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah:

That rookie on the Browns should have picked Vick in the end zone last week and the Eaglets are 0-1, and this line is Ravens -3.5 or something like that. I guess there's a lot of Philly Phuckheads creating this "line" - remember, Browns still covered, though.

Philly is scaring nobody, Vick is scaring nobody. If Flacco and the Ravens "D" play half as good as they did against the Bungles, this is a blowout by halftime.

Ravens +1 all day every day


record doesnt matter, so them losing to the browns wouldnt have changed this. the eagles played like garbage and the line still opened at -8. vegas clearly thinks the eagles are going to win the game...simple as that
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#15
Posted: 9/13/2012 10:37:18 PM
Thanks Checkmate! That was exactly the kind of thoughtful analysis I was hoping for. I'm still going with BAL, but with a bit less enthusiasm. It's now at +2.5 at most online books, so it makes it hard not to.

Here's my take/reply, as I think you have captured why I think the line is what it is.

1) You can't make the 'it's only one game' argument. These are veteran squads, and PHI didn't have a big personnel turnover to justify the crapfest in CLE. 

2) I agree about the Ravens and home field and I too have been burned by BAL on the road (Seattle last year?). I'm not a Joe Flacco guy at all. I don't like his attitude. But, that offense is waaaay more aggressive and potent than last year and I don't think you can chalk that up to home field. BAL has a new approach to offense this season.

3) BAL gave up 129 to CIN, so there is something to Shady going off. And we still don't know about Reed. But, Maclin and Jackson are both injured and their status is also uncertain. If this is left to Vick and Shady without healthy WRs, fuggit about it. BAL will score on PHI and force several turnovers along the way. 

4) Your Vegas argument is the most persuasive. There really is something so bloody effing obvious about it that it keeps moving AGAINST BAL, that is, the public sees the line as an obvious ruse and is going PHI. That makes me worry, having been stung like this before.

At the end of the day, I am convinced that the public is massively overrating Vick and that BAL is the second best team in the AFC. Look at Vick's mediocrity over the last year and then compare how Flacco gets better and better during the same period. These are trajectories headed in opposite directions and these squads aren't that much different than last year. I don't care where they play, BAL is gonna win. 
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#16
Posted: 9/13/2012 11:50:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cyrusdarius:

Thanks Checkmate! That was exactly the kind of thoughtful analysis I was hoping for. I'm still going with BAL, but with a bit less enthusiasm. It's now at +2.5 at most online books, so it makes it hard not to.

Here's my take/reply, as I think you have captured why I think the line is what it is.

1) You can't make the 'it's only one game' argument. These are veteran squads, and PHI didn't have a big personnel turnover to justify the crapfest in CLE. 

2) I agree about the Ravens and home field and I too have been burned by BAL on the road (Seattle last year?). I'm not a Joe Flacco guy at all. I don't like his attitude. But, that offense is waaaay more aggressive and potent than last year and I don't think you can chalk that up to home field. BAL has a new approach to offense this season.

3) BAL gave up 129 to CIN, so there is something to Shady going off. And we still don't know about Reed. But, Maclin and Jackson are both injured and their status is also uncertain. If this is left to Vick and Shady without healthy WRs, fuggit about it. BAL will score on PHI and force several turnovers along the way. 

4) Your Vegas argument is the most persuasive. There really is something so bloody effing obvious about it that it keeps moving AGAINST BAL, that is, the public sees the line as an obvious ruse and is going PHI. That makes me worry, having been stung like this before.

At the end of the day, I am convinced that the public is massively overrating Vick and that BAL is the second best team in the AFC. Look at Vick's mediocrity over the last year and then compare how Flacco gets better and better during the same period. These are trajectories headed in opposite directions and these squads aren't that much different than last year. I don't care where they play, BAL is gonna win. 


Also to the EAGLES point, people are acting like the Browns are a division two college team. They aren't great but I believe will upset some teams this year. 

And I'm not sure if this is TRUE but I heard The Brown coaching staff all came from Andy Rieds Eagles at one point. So everything the Eagles did the Brown had planed for. If true that def makes sense. The Browns did not play amazing but were well coached. 

Last note, last time I check the Eagles did come down and score the game winning drive despite how bad they played. and in the NFL winning on the road is never easy......I dont care who your playing
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#17
Posted: 9/14/2012 12:59:16 AM
Eagles at home!!! -2 book it!!! 
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#18
Posted: 9/14/2012 4:12:52 AM
I watched the entire game when Michael Vick was scrambling and whiffing balls left and right. I just didn't see any hope for Vick to do better in that game because he has zero pocket presence. The o-line can't handle the browns, what makes you think that this balitmore defense is going to let up against Vick? Vick looked very bad for 4 quarters, not just a couple. I'm personally going to put a large portion of my bankroll on Ravens to control both sides of the ball. This game is won 8/10 times by ravens. Give me the better odds for this one at plus money. Good luck to whoever bets this game. This one will be won by the Ravens 27-17 
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#19
Posted: 9/14/2012 5:33:22 AM
Philly =  INCOMPETENT ORGANIZATION.      Dallas fan looking down on da Eagles with disdain and contempt.

It's a JOKE that baltimore isn't favored by at least......3 points or more.

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#20
Posted: 9/14/2012 4:27:42 PM
Ok,  first, Ravens not NEARLY as good in away games or non-divisional games; Second, first week means little in the long run; Third, Philly is a week up, week down team, and so is Baltimore.   Philly -3 is teh play.
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#21
Posted: 9/14/2012 11:13:59 PM
Exactly Lavin,  I remember last year when they screwed me on the road in Seattle or was it Jacksonville? Anyways, I am going to wait until I see how they handle a road game.  They play 30 less  good on the road. Even though the Eagles look like garbage so far I am refraining from betting until I see some improvement on the road by Baltimore.
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#22
Posted: 9/14/2012 11:20:09 PM
Although I really like Baltimore here the unknown of how they are going to play on the road is keeping  out of this one. I love the hurry up offense. Cyrus is probably right and makes lots of good points.  After missing out on that NE game because of the ''too easy'' lines, I have decided on sticking with stats and other indicators and not worrying about what the darn vegas is thinking. Only laying off because of past letdowns by Baltimore on the road. 
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#23
Posted: 9/14/2012 11:25:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Runnie72:

Philly may play better and its tough to win there but the Ravens are playing with purpose, like Balt LB better than philly and front 4 about even, would give lean to Balt if Suggs there, rb are even Philly has better wr but Vick is def a liability, if he runs he better have that jacket on, Start warming up Mr Foles

Ravens +2.5

I think Foles would be a serious improvement to Vick.
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#24
Posted: 9/15/2012 4:31:31 AM
I'm from baltimore n a big raven fan. "checkmate" made some great points. The line is fishy with the$$ on Baltimore and Philly is still-2. I really think Philly n Vick go with lots of 3step dropback quick short passes to take away the passrush n that helps the run. Flacco is for real. I had a front row seat watching him get better n better. The staff are finally letting him lose. With the no huddle,calling audible's,throwing over the middle,taken deep shots. Trust me I never seen him call an audible untill late last year. I'll have the ravens on a 3team 10point teaser with the pats n steelers.                                                                                                                                                           @jlavin the ravens went 12n4 last year. That's not a up n down team.                                                                                                                       Anyways I can see either team winning and kinda leaning for Philly to win but a very slight lean... Good luck everybody
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#25
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:22:24 AM
Ravens +2.5 seems like a gift !  
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