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Author: [College Football] Topic: Pittsburgh at Mississippi (01/05/2013)
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#26
Posted: 1/4/2013 11:54:09 PM
Miss -3
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#27
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:09:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

When I saw Pitt in their first game this year, I thought they were one of the most poorly coached undisciplined team I had seen in many years.  They played better down the stretch but I let my eyes make an opinion on this team that I believe is justified by the numbers

1.  Score Predictor is too close to call - It makes Ole Miss a 2 pt fav, too close to make lean.

2.  Consensus - slight edge to Pitt but still over 40%. Not enough to push me to Pitt.

3.  Sharp / Square ML indicator - nothing here either. Not even a lean to either side.

4.  CE Diff -  Very slight lean to Pitt but not enough to make a play.

When I see a situation like this that looks like a pass, I sometimes lean to the favorite.  I am sure all the squares on this site will find lots of reasons to back Ole Miss and I don't really have a disagreement with that.  This game is such a snoozer that it is hard for me to make a play. Right now, I am leaning to Ole Miss but if any late steam comes on Pitt, I may switch my play if the late steam looks like sharp money ( which it usually is if the late steam is on the dog).

One more thing I would like to say to all of the people who don't understand my method of handicapping and that is the following:

Several of you guys  here don't seem to get that this a game of long term success. Anything can happen over a short period of time from winning 8 or losing 8 in a row.  The absurdity of calling someone out because they missed a game or two really shows a lack of understanding of how to play this game.  It may make you feel good to win a game or two but it means nothing in the long run because the long run is all that counts if you are about making money at this.

Short term results are meaningless.  If you wanna call me or anyone else out, then  make it over 50 - 100 games or so, not just short term fluctuations. I wonder how many of you here are really bettors or just guys that post your square opinions.  Even blind pigs find acorns at times ( that means even squares have winning streaks. They just have fewer of them than sharps)




ya ya, another story book another "fade", u told me to fade u on the OKL game so I did, nice call, LOL! Dude, ur horrible
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#28
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:08:25 AM
combato

I really look forward to your feed back man.  What people don't understand is that nothing is guarantee especially with betting.  I like the fact that you bring out the numbers and leave personal opinions on the side.  I love LSU but if the numbers is not in their favor then I gotta go with the other team.  If we left it up to "the eye" then it is best to flip a coin.  Probably win more cash that way.  All in all, I look over everyone's feed back and make my own decisions when all is said and done... but you all are big influences.

thanks guys and thanks 
combato

I'll be waiting for your final feed back on this game.

Oh yeah I am a new poster that rarely post
so take it easy on me those guys who always have to say something negative.  
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#29
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:10:45 AM
Oh yeah
I know LSU is not playing that was just an example.
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#30
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:27:49 AM
I'm sticking with original play. Ole miss 38 Pitt. 24.

Combato, I get you have a system and I think that is the only way to stay above water. You are right.  Every handicapper goes cold and a good handicapper stays disciplined through a cold streak, doesn't chase bad money, passes games he doesn't have a read on and bets units consistently. I have broken these rules through the years and learned the hard way. Whether its in a casino or with a sports book discipline is the only way to survive.
Anyway, appreciate your posts as I do anyone on this site putting themselves, their plays and their insight out their for public review/criticism. In my humble opinion it's all about information and as we all know Vegas has more of it. Hence your square/contrarian/steam theory holds water to the extent that you are trying to play a side with those who have some important information. 
I can tell you this game means a lot to the ole miss program. 8 top 150 recruits are seriously considering ole miss. The program has a lot of momentum and both coaches and players will do everything necessary to keep that going. Since the Texas beat down ole miss has played great football even when it could only take 57 scholarship players to baton rouge. The Alabama game was a defining moment when a super-young, over-matched rebel defense came out and hit Bama in the mouth. Despite playing under manned and young and most importantly when left on the field way too long they kept ole miss in every game except the second half of Georgia. They will play the same way against Pitt. They'll give up some yards and some points but they will keep making big plays throughout. So I think the question is Pitts defense and I am just not of the opinion that they are in the same ballpark with lsu, Bama, vandy, Georgia or tex a&m's. I think they are probably more like miss. State. I like ole miss through 4 quarters and pulling away in second half. Ole miss offense will wear Pitt down. In support of my line of thinking is the passion factor. Pitts third straight trip to birmingham. When the chips are down I just don't see them fighting through it. We shall see on the morrow.
Good luck to all. 
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#31
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:42:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by micka466:


ya ya, another story book another "fade", u told me to fade u on the OKL game so I did, nice call, LOL! Dude, ur horrible

I see this clown stalking you in every thread, He must be jealous of your knowledge and angles. Maybe someday, he will have balls and post his picks. Which I know he doesnt have any.

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#32
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:59:19 AM
Like I tell my friends who want to get into gambling.. It's a marathon, not a sprint.. You will have cold streaks.. It will happen, which is why money management is so key to being a successful bettor.. For all we know, combato could go on a 11-0 run in the NFL playoffs.. Just like QBs get hot, same way with gambling..

Anyways, going with Ole Miss half and game in this one.. A step forward for a program that didnt make a bowl last year and is looking to get back to winning ways.. I believe Ole Miss will be able to shut down Graham and make Sunseri throw.. Although he has a good TD/INT ratio, he is known to go into funks where he cant complete a 3 yrd slant pattern.. With the long layoff usually effecting offenses, i believe it will be even worse here.. Ole Miss on the other hand should be able to run, which should help the passing game.. Best of luck guys..
Posted using a mobile device.
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#33
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:20:52 AM
Once again COMBATO was wrong.... And since I have really only see posts from you over the last 2 weeks it is very fair to judge you from that since that is all I've seen.,.. And you are CONSTANTLY wrong. I think you just like to hear yourself talk and put up all your nonsense bullshit... I hit again last night betting with Johnny Football... Or as you were calling him Johnny Fraud... Dude you're a joke... 

I'm not really loving any team in this game... But I'll probably roll with miss and the under... Unless I pass... I'm ready for the NFl games tomorrow though!. 
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#34
Posted: 1/5/2013 8:21:15 AM
i dont normally post but i have been betting games for more than 25 years. this game is a perfect tease. so take ole miss plus 3-4pts and over. double what you normally wager. do the same for the GB Minn game taking GB and over. you will win. dont get greedy just double
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#35
Posted: 1/5/2013 8:55:55 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Thaistix]

I see this clown stalking you in every thread, He must be jealous of your knowledge and angles. Maybe someday, he will have balls and post his picks. Which I know he doesnt have any.

[/Quote

Im not the one writing story books and losing on every write up, idiot. Who are u? His lawyer, how bout the next write up, looks like Im not the only 1 who notices his wrong on EVERY game, u shmuck.
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#36
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:23:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimjones555:

Once again COMBATO was wrong.... And since I have really only see posts from you over the last 2 weeks it is very fair to judge you from that since that is all I've seen.,.. And you are CONSTANTLY wrong. I think you just like to hear yourself talk and put up all your nonsense bullshit... I hit again last night betting with Johnny Football... Or as you were calling him Johnny Fraud... Dude you're a joke... 

I'm not really loving any team in this game... But I'll probably roll with miss and the under... Unless I pass... I'm ready for the NFl games tomorrow though!. 

What a coward you are!! You created an SAF just to bash and back up your other bash. You losers who tail and the the play loses then come back and cry are pathetic

This goes for you too micka! Grow some balls and cap your own game you little baby

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#37
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:27:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wmi799:

What a coward you are!! You created an SAF just to bash and back up your other bash. You losers who tail and the the play loses then come back and cry are pathetic

This goes for you too micka! Grow some balls and cap your own game you little baby


Shut ur mouth, u beaaach, I was on here saying Johnny football would run over 200 yds and how I WOULD fade this idiot combato or whatever his stupid name is, wheres ur pics u phat flock. Get outta here u gimp.
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#38
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:32:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by micka466:


Shut ur mouth, u beaaach, I was on here saying Johnny football would run over 200 yds and how I WOULD fade this idiot combato or whatever his stupid name is, wheres ur pics u phat flock. Get outta here u gimp.

And your are a coward. Now log out and log in under your SAF so your pathetic cry baby  tailing butt can back you up. Grow up little boy

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#39
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:36:42 AM

Pittsburgh + 3 over Mississippi!

Must go with Pittsburgh in this matchup!  Pittsburgh holding + 10 points on offense, and Mississippi a - 20 points on defense last 3 games!  Pitts + 10 advantage far above its + 3 points underdog status!

And Pittsburgh recently took out Rutgers 27 to 6, not an easy task!  And Pitt even battled Syracuse to a 13-14 one point loss!

Mississippi mobile QB Bo Wallace and RB Jeff Scott will cause some trouble.  But Pittsburgh QB Tino Sunseri (3103 YDs and 19 TDs) and RB Ray Graham (1044 yards rushing) should be able to break through somewhat weak defense, and put up enough points to cover the 3 point spread!

Mississippi only 3-5 straight up last 8 games!

Pittsburgh now 5-1 vs. Vegas spread last 6 games!

Pittsburgh plus 3 over Mississippi!

                GLTA                         

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#40
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:46:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by micka466:


ya ya, another story book another "fade", u told me to fade u on the OKL game so I did, nice call, LOL! Dude, ur horrible


You remind me of a tapeworm that is stuck to my behind.
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#41
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:56:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wmi799:

And your are a coward. Now log out and log in under your SAF so your pathetic cry baby  tailing butt can back you up. Grow up little boy



You got that one right.  The guy is obviously a loser or he would not be so obsessed with my posts. He clearly has issues with his manhood as evidenced by his " avatar " of Matt Hughes. He is a classic internet wimp trying to act like a tough guy so best to let him blow air and be an MMA fighter in his dreams/
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#42
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:59:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimjones555:

Once again COMBATO was wrong.... And since I have really only see posts from you over the last 2 weeks it is very fair to judge you from that since that is all I've seen.,.. And you are CONSTANTLY wrong. I think you just like to hear yourself talk and put up all your nonsense bullshit... I hit again last night betting with Johnny Football... Or as you were calling him Johnny Fraud... Dude you're a joke... 

I'm not really loving any team in this game... But I'll probably roll with miss and the under... Unless I pass... I'm ready for the NFl games tomorrow though!. 


I only started posting a few days before NYD so I really cant prove my full bowl game record so I can't argue with what you have said. Once again, small sample sizes mean nothing.  If you want to bet with one on one with no juice over 50 to 100 games, then let's bring it on.  Real money, no juice and I can play for whatever amount you want to bet.  We can do it in public next season right here on Covers for all to see.  Say 5 games a week picked against the closing line at Pinnacle?  Let me know here for everyone to see.
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#43
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:07:21 AM

In bowls motivation is as significant as talent, you have seen that in the USC and Florida upsets...neither team gave a damn about those games and lost to teams where the game meant something.  Ole Miss has been the whipping boy in the SEC West for years, they are excited about this insignificant bowl.  They have played a better schedule and have a good offensive scheme.  Ole Miss  has holes in it's defense but does Pitt have the offense to exploit this weakness?  If so, I haven't seen it. 

Fans will not be loud enough to make much of an impact so any advantage to the rebs will be slight.  Mistake will be to assign too much to the Pitt/ND game, Pitt was inspired and ND has a weak offense, neither of these factors are present in today's game.

Not a big play for me but I like  UM to win and cover.  1 or 2 unit play for me.

 

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#44
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:19:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rainbowsatnight:

I'm sticking with original play. Ole miss 38 Pitt. 24.

Combato, I get you have a system and I think that is the only way to stay above water. You are right.  Every handicapper goes cold and a good handicapper stays disciplined through a cold streak, doesn't chase bad money, passes games he doesn't have a read on and bets units consistently. I have broken these rules through the years and learned the hard way. Whether its in a casino or with a sports book discipline is the only way to survive.
Anyway, appreciate your posts as I do anyone on this site putting themselves, their plays and their insight out their for public review/criticism. In my humble opinion it's all about information and as we all know Vegas has more of it. Hence your square/contrarian/steam theory holds water to the extent that you are trying to play a side with those who have some important information. 
I can tell you this game means a lot to the ole miss program. 8 top 150 recruits are seriously considering ole miss. The program has a lot of momentum and both coaches and players will do everything necessary to keep that going. Since the Texas beat down ole miss has played great football even when it could only take 57 scholarship players to baton rouge. The Alabama game was a defining moment when a super-young, over-matched rebel defense came out and hit Bama in the mouth. Despite playing under manned and young and most importantly when left on the field way too long they kept ole miss in every game except the second half of Georgia. They will play the same way against Pitt. They'll give up some yards and some points but they will keep making big plays throughout. So I think the question is Pitts defense and I am just not of the opinion that they are in the same ballpark with lsu, Bama, vandy, Georgia or tex a&m's. I think they are probably more like miss. State. I like ole miss through 4 quarters and pulling away in second half. Ole miss offense will wear Pitt down. In support of my line of thinking is the passion factor. Pitts third straight trip to birmingham. When the chips are down I just don't see them fighting through it. We shall see on the morrow.
Good luck to all. 

Thank RB - Since my stuff points to no play on this game, you are persuading me to take Ole Miss I think.  I have seen these pro - Ole Miss arguments in other locations as well from other cappers whose opinion I respect.
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#45
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:32:09 AM
Since we are near the end of the season,  I want to take the time to post a few comments about the last two weeks here on Covers during the bowl season.

1.  I have gained a lot knowledge from reading many of the posts here. I like it when every one brings a unique point of view or something different from what can be heard on ESPN, etc.   Sharing knowledge, opinions and information should be a big help to our collective ability to handicap CFB games.

2.  No one has all the answers.  No one goes more than 60% in the long run and probably no higher than 58% against the closing line.  Most people on this sight are upfront about their results and we have not seen too much overt " touting " which give these posts a certain degree of credibility, at least in my opinion.

3.  Does anyone here plan  on capping the college BB season from here on in?  If so, let me know where you plan to be posting.  The forums may be an option in the future as opposed to a these individual game threads.

I would like to find a location where all of us could simply post our picks next season.  Would anyone like to use the Covers contest as way to keep track next year?  Maybe 5 plays a week and we all go against whatever line Covers posts.  I think we need to play between 50 and 100 game but I am open to more if that is what people would like to do.

Anyway, not many games left so I wanted to throw this out and see if anyone wanted to take this up and find out whose stuff works and whose stuff does not work. Anything else is hot air and bs.
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#46
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:35:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsPredictor:

Pittsburgh + 3 over Mississippi!

Must go with Pittsburgh in this matchup!  Pittsburgh holding + 10 points on offense, and Mississippi a - 20 points on defense last 3 games!  Pitts + 10 advantage far above its + 3 points underdog status!

And Pittsburgh recently took out Rutgers 27 to 6, not an easy task!  And Pitt even battled Syracuse to a 13-14 one point loss!

Mississippi mobile QB Bo Wallace and RB Jeff Scott will cause some trouble.  But Pittsburgh QB Tino Sunseri (3103 YDs and 19 TDs) and RB Ray Graham (1044 yards rushing) should be able to break through somewhat weak defense, and put up enough points to cover the 3 point spread!

Mississippi only 3-5 straight up last 8 games!

Pittsburgh now 5-1 vs. Vegas spread last 6 games!

Pittsburgh plus 3 over Mississippi!

                GLTA                         



Nice record but 5 -1 ?  I have a 20% chance of going 5 - 1 by flipping a coin.  What is your record over the last 50 games?
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#47
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:36:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:



You got that one right.  The guy is obviously a loser or he would not be so obsessed with my posts. He clearly has issues with his manhood as evidenced by his " avatar " of Matt Hughes. He is a classic internet wimp trying to act like a tough guy so best to let him blow air and be an MMA fighter in his dreams/

Obsessed w/. ur posts, more like luv laughin at them, hey shmuck I'm not the only one posting how u lose on every write up. Wow...
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#48
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:38:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimjones555:

Once again COMBATO was wrong.... And since I have really only see posts from you over the last 2 weeks it is very fair to judge you from that since that is all I've seen.,.. And you are CONSTANTLY wrong. I think you just like to hear yourself talk and put up all your nonsense bullshit... I hit again last night betting with Johnny Football... Or as you were calling him Johnny Fraud... Dude you're a joke... 

I'm not really loving any team in this game... But I'll probably roll with miss and the under... Unless I pass... I'm ready for the NFl games tomorrow though!. 


Jim Jones huh?  Good name.  See my other posts in this forum.
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#49
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:41:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by micka466:


Obsessed w/. ur posts, more like luv laughin at them, hey shmuck I'm not the only one posting how u lose on every write up. Wow...


Good bye tough guy - i hope you around next season and willing to take my challenge.  50 games picked on Covers contest.  CFB only. No more responses from me.  Pick the games, or pick your nose cry baby.
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#50
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:47:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by micka466:


Obsessed w/. ur posts, more like luv laughin at them, hey shmuck I'm not the only one posting how u lose on every write up. Wow...

Just you and your SAF jimjones. Micka466/jimjones555 one and the same. Same kind of user name, no caps, three numbers. Same writing style. Same obsession. Sad as hell this tool uses two names to try and look tough and back himself up

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