Iowa State at Tulsa (12/31/2012)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Iowa State at Tulsa (12/31/2012)
Covers PM Covers
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Posted: 12/2/2012 9:53:13 PM

Away:  Iowa State [5-6-1 ATS]
Home:  Tulsa [7-5 ATS]

Game Time: 3:30 PM
Stadium: Liberty Bowl Memorial

Recent Meetings:
09/01/12 - TULSA 23 vs. IOWST 38

Team Leaders:

Iowa State:
Passing: Steele Jantz (1562)
Rushing: Shontrelle Johnson (504)
Receiving: Josh Lenz (430)

Tulsa:
Passing: Cody Green (2499)
Rushing: Trey Watts (959)
Receiving: Keyarris Garrett (826)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

blakewedel81 PM blakewedel81
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Posted: 12/3/2012 12:54:30 PM
Tulsa wins by 7-10
osu200200 PM osu200200
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Posted: 12/6/2012 2:46:50 PM

fg either way

royal72 PM royal72
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Posted: 12/12/2012 2:03:51 AM
Tulsa plays only good enough to have a chance to win. Iowa State tries to lose and gives the game to Tulsa.
gunpati PM gunpati
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Posted: 12/20/2012 12:49:37 PM

Tulsa & Over.

Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 12/24/2012 12:43:46 AM
Tulsa has revenge (earlier this year loss to Iowa St.) and has more weapons than Iowa St. on Offense.

The O/U is tough, but I'd lean under because of the long layoff, and these teams both have their defenses twice as good as their offenses.

BOL  
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Posted: 12/29/2012 4:45:24 PM
Tulsa has the better offense and defense than ISU.  Tulsa should be laying 3 pts, but they are one pt dog....Christmas is over, but I don't mind accepting a late christmas present with this line. The only way ISU has a chance is to force turnovers and have some trick plays up their sleeves.  Don't overthint about this game, Tulsa wins by 2 touchdowns or more.  Oh yeah, who cares if ISU won against Tulsa 3+ months ago. Alot of things have changed since then.
ncdcbag PM ncdcbag
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Posted: 12/30/2012 4:38:38 PM
Got my behind kicked on that TCU game yesterday, but had a decent day overall. I'm with you banditos on Tulsa and over
Coloneljim PM Coloneljim
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Posted: 12/30/2012 5:46:25 PM

Iowa St - 33                                     Tulsa - 31

Cyclones -1                                over 51   

Rhoads lost last year to Rutgers in the Pinstripe. He finds a way to to get the Cyclones back in the Bowl win column.

Iowa St - Over          

combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/30/2012 9:13:00 PM
I currently have Tulsa as a 2 unit play which may go to 3 units based on tomorrow's action before kickoff.   Will post more tomorrow as current consensus data and line movement become available.
lexluger203 PM lexluger203
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:33:09 PM

Iowa st + 2 Already beat them this year teams with the bigger players wi pay att.

mak104 PM mak104
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:36:29 PM
I'm not seeing the Tulsa love? Iowa St. Strength of Sched. seem way over that of IS?
mak104 PM mak104
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:44:53 PM
Of Tulsa.
volexpert PM volexpert
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:55:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mak104:

I'm not seeing the Tulsa love? Iowa St. Strength of Sched. seem way over that of IS?

I know you meant tulsa, but anyway i agree with you on this.  Strength of schedule is not close.  Iowa State has played way better competition.  they win by 7.

volexpert PM volexpert
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Posted: 12/31/2012 12:01:18 AM
Every team that Iowa State lost to this year is better than Tulsa.  Iowa State also beat Baylor by 2 td's.  and Baylor is way better than tulsa.
BoomBoom99 PM BoomBoom99
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Posted: 12/31/2012 12:20:55 AM

Iowa st. is the play

Iowa st. 27 Tulsa 24

combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 12:47:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by volexpert:

Every team that Iowa State lost to this year is better than Tulsa.  Iowa State also beat Baylor by 2 td's.  and Baylor is way better than tulsa.


So if every team ISU lost to is better than Tulsa, why is the line pick 'em ?? I know why - because Vegas is stupid and they want you to win so they put out lines that are easy to beat, ESPECIALLY this time of the year.   Wake up.  Whenever something looks too easy in this game, it usually is.  Give me Tulsa for full three unit play

Thaistix PM Thaistix
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Posted: 12/31/2012 1:55:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by combato:



So if every team ISU lost to is better than Tulsa, why is the line pick 'em ?? I know why - because Vegas is stupid and they want you to win so they put out lines that are easy to beat, ESPECIALLY this time of the year.   Wake up.  Whenever something looks too easy in this game, it usually is.  Give me Tulsa for full three unit play

I had a chance to read most of your analyis on all the bowl games so far...You are spot on ..!  I wish I saw your post earlier before all the games, I would save some money. Even though so far.. Iam up couple of Units last week.

Thanks for posting your insight and picks..!

 

 

combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 9:15:21 AM
I love this game for a lot of reasons which are listed below

1.  Revenge in a bowl game is a powerful criteria.  The most recent example was 2 years ago when Wash played Neb.  Neb killed Wash 52 -10 in regular season.  Wash, as 10 pt dog, beat Neb 10- straight up with Locker at QB. in the bowl game.   Small sample size but many other examples can be found.  Play Tulsa on the revenge angle.  Works much better in college than in pros.

2.  Consensus favors Tulsa but not by a huge margin - I would not bet this on consensus indicator if that was all I had but there is more. Play Tulsa

3. Sharp / Square ML indicator does not yet show a play on Tulsa but is leaning that way.  May be a full play on Tulsa by gametime.

3.  CE Diff is 10% on Tulsa - 10% is the minimum adv I will play in a bowl game but the proven handicappers like Tulsa by this margin. This is only hitting 50% in bowl games but it looks pretty good when used in conjunction with my other indicators.

Tulsa will be a 2 or 3 unit play for me depending on the late steam.  Late steam on ISU will take me off the game.  Late Steam on Tulsa would move this from a 2 unit play to a 3 unit play.
3. 
combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 9:17:51 AM
I forgot to mention that my score predictor is calling for a 43 - 21 Tulsa win.   This is not to be used for betting totals but it does indicate a the potential for a big pointspread margin in this game.  More evidence to support Tulsa in this game.
volexpert PM volexpert
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Posted: 12/31/2012 10:10:29 AM
QUOTE

Quote from you mr. Combato on the vandy/nc state thread:  "and I have to admit that my "eyes" tend to favor Vandy but I have learned to trust the numbers over my eyes. The numbers don't lie but eyes can mislead."

 

Originally Posted by combato:



So if every team ISU lost to is better than Tulsa, why is the line pick 'em ?? I know why - because Vegas is stupid and they want you to win so they put out lines that are easy to beat, ESPECIALLY this time of the year.   Wake up.  Whenever something looks too easy in this game, it usually is.  Give me Tulsa for full three unit play

Because the numbers dont lie right?

volexpert PM volexpert
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Posted: 12/31/2012 10:12:42 AM
btw the line is 2 not a pick em.  Must of been that "steam" coming in.
SportsPredictor PM SportsPredictor
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Posted: 12/31/2012 10:53:10 AM

Tulsa + 2 over Iowa State!

Must take Tulsa plus 2 points here!  Key Iowa St. RB Shontrelle Johnson (504 YDs rushing) is now out!  And Iowa State starting QB Steele Jantz is very questionable for todays game. 

Plus, much improved Tulsa now 8-2 straight up and 6-2 vs. point spread last 8 games!

Expecting Tulsa's mobile QB Cody Green (2499 YDs, 225 YDs rushing and 17 TDs) to team up with RBs Trey Watts (959 YDs) and Ja'Terian Douglas (857 YDs) to get their revenge and win this one outright!

Tulsa plus 2 points over Iowa State!

GLTA                                       

combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 11:00:32 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by volexpert]

Because the numbers dont lie right?

Good point - numbers can lie but the eyes can mislead.  The trick is knowing when and that is the hard part isn;t it.
combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 11:02:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by volexpert:

btw the line is 2 not a pick em.  Must of been that "steam" coming in.



Steam from smart money betting late should not be ignored.  You can do what you want  with it,  I have no interest in whether you win or lose.
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