One of the betting angles that is often looked at (and used) in the Belmont is the exhausted horse angle i.e. that a horse racing for the triple crown may likely be impacted by the rigors of 3 races in 5 weeks.
What does history tell us about this? Well, 35 horses have won the first two legs. 32 raced in the Belmont. Of those, 11 won, 8 finished second, 5 third, meaning 24 of 32 finished in the top 3.
So one way to look at this is to say that these 32 horses were far superior and one reason they lost is exhaustion. Breaking down the individual races starts to chip away at that theory. For example, there were horses that had terrible starts like War Emblem.
Some of the horses that are used to typify this theory are Smarty Jones and California Chrome. Interestingly, however, in both cases, the horses' final last split was better than average compared to the field. In fact, Smarty Jones is used as an example of the exhaustion factor, yet came home faster than every other horse but one.
Its still hard to determine how racing three times impacted the individual horse without having a comparison, which is impossible. But the numbers do seem to suggest that the exhausted horse finishing out of the money is much more of an anomaly as opposed to the rule.
One of the betting angles that is often looked at (and used) in the Belmont is the exhausted horse angle i.e. that a horse racing for the triple crown may likely be impacted by the rigors of 3 races in 5 weeks.
What does history tell us about this? Well, 35 horses have won the first two legs. 32 raced in the Belmont. Of those, 11 won, 8 finished second, 5 third, meaning 24 of 32 finished in the top 3.
So one way to look at this is to say that these 32 horses were far superior and one reason they lost is exhaustion. Breaking down the individual races starts to chip away at that theory. For example, there were horses that had terrible starts like War Emblem.
Some of the horses that are used to typify this theory are Smarty Jones and California Chrome. Interestingly, however, in both cases, the horses' final last split was better than average compared to the field. In fact, Smarty Jones is used as an example of the exhaustion factor, yet came home faster than every other horse but one.
Its still hard to determine how racing three times impacted the individual horse without having a comparison, which is impossible. But the numbers do seem to suggest that the exhausted horse finishing out of the money is much more of an anomaly as opposed to the rule.
Brow, I don't think in terms of "exhausted" - more a little "tired" going up against a bunch of fresher horses training specifically for this race. If AP wins, nothing to talk about, he would deserve to be just the 4th Triple Crown winner since 1948 (that's how hard it is to do it!). No doubt if he doesn't win, this will be brought up no matter where or how he finishes. No one will ever know why for sure.....
Brow, I don't think in terms of "exhausted" - more a little "tired" going up against a bunch of fresher horses training specifically for this race. If AP wins, nothing to talk about, he would deserve to be just the 4th Triple Crown winner since 1948 (that's how hard it is to do it!). No doubt if he doesn't win, this will be brought up no matter where or how he finishes. No one will ever know why for sure.....
Yes, Roused, I think Frosted is the most likely winner. He had a so-so derby with not a whole lot of pace to close into, will be rested the five weeks with the top Belmont jock in Rosario. He may go off as solid 5-1 second choice depending on how much the public bets down AP. If their "real" odds of winning were about equal then they would both go off about 5-2 each in this race. Odds will be saying that public thinks that AP is more than five times (close to ten?) more likely to win than Frosted. I do concede that AP could win of course, he is very talented, and the other contenders (Frosted or Keen Ice or Materiality or Carpe Diem) may not run their races or the truck could be wet or muddy, but the post time odds on AP will be ludicrous to seriously consider betting AP. Of course many people will be buying tickets on AP to win at Belmont as potential souvenirs.
Yes, Roused, I think Frosted is the most likely winner. He had a so-so derby with not a whole lot of pace to close into, will be rested the five weeks with the top Belmont jock in Rosario. He may go off as solid 5-1 second choice depending on how much the public bets down AP. If their "real" odds of winning were about equal then they would both go off about 5-2 each in this race. Odds will be saying that public thinks that AP is more than five times (close to ten?) more likely to win than Frosted. I do concede that AP could win of course, he is very talented, and the other contenders (Frosted or Keen Ice or Materiality or Carpe Diem) may not run their races or the truck could be wet or muddy, but the post time odds on AP will be ludicrous to seriously consider betting AP. Of course many people will be buying tickets on AP to win at Belmont as potential souvenirs.
Horserace Nation article. A/P has run the least amount of furlongs (tied with Big Brown) in their 3 year old campaigns out of the other failed Belmont/Triple Crown losers.
Horserace Nation article. A/P has run the least amount of furlongs (tied with Big Brown) in their 3 year old campaigns out of the other failed Belmont/Triple Crown losers.
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