My winner:
In the 11th race on the card, I'm taking #2, California Chrome to win. I am also making three small exacta bets: 2-5, 2-6 and 2-8. I'm putting 10 units on California Chrome to win, and bet the exactas for 1 unit each.
My Reasoning:
The pundits have had three weeks since the Preakness to come up with reasons why CC won't win this race, and with it, the first Triple Crown in 36 years, but their predictions of Cinderella turning into a pumpkin (or in this case, a pile of horse dung) simply don't hold much water. Distractions over whether CC would be allowed to wear his breathing strip? That absurd threat was settled immediately when the New York Racing Assoc. of course said it was okay for his trainer to affix the patch on his nose (they'd probably let him wear a tutu if his trainer asked for that). Persistent rumors of a sore throat? Those started before the Preakness and you saw what he did to his competition there. The 1 1/2 mile distance being too long for him? Well, none of the other horses he'll be facing have ever sniffed 12 furlongs either. And judging by how easily he won both the Derby and Preakness, it seems that Chrome should have plenty left in the tank. Then, just yesterday, there was some grumbling about him drawing the #2 post position, only one position off of the rail. Hey, it's a 1 1/2 mile race, people! Post position makes about as much difference as what color is on his silks. Simply stated, CC is by far the best 3-year-old in the country and he should romp against this mediocre competition.
So, as was the case in the Preakness, I'd like to find value in the exacta because Chrome once again will go off at odds of around 1-2. So like in the Preakness, I'm going to probably pick 3 horses to play underneath Chrome in the exacta (1-2 order of finish), in addition to playing on California Chrome to win.:
1. I am expecting good odds for #5 Ride on Curlin (around 10-1) due to the presence of some new shooters in here that weren't running in Baltimore (e.g., Wicked Strong, Commanding Curve, Tonalist).
2. The #6 horse, Matuzsak, probably offers the best value as a potential top 3 finisher. He has huge late pace numbers that indicate he will be running hard down the stretch when many of the horses are backing up, and you get one of the best pace riders in the game in Mike Smith. He's priced at 30-1 on the morning line and offers great value on the bottom end of the exacta.
3. And finally the #8 horse, Commissioner, didn't like the sloppy track in the Peter Pan when he was soundly beaten by Tonalist, but how often do you get a big price on a horse of this quality trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano. Commissioner also has some big late pace numbers so expect him to bounce back big today at odds near 15-1.
Good luck guys! Remember, the track is the only place where windows clean people.