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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park - 1/5
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
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#1
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:34:42 AM

gulfstream race 2

4

0.20/0.20/0.40

4/1 ml.  expecting the boys to be all over the 1 and the 6 so maybe this guy gets ignored to above 5/1ish.  late speed, pattern, distance, stamina.  has been able to mow down fields of this level or higher from off the pace when he gets a decent to fast pace in front of him.  expecting the 1, 6, and 7 to get out there setting the clip and beating up on each other.  1 and 6 have been able to hold on late at Calder against weaker but not so much against tougher and at GP.  1 was flat last time out off the bench.  4 has run well fresh off the pine.  three drills since last spaced 9-10 days apart which I can accept he's a 6YO and knows what to do when the gates open and no need to beat the hell out of him in the morning.  race off the bench about a year ago at NYRA he was moving really well late "inside 5/16-3/16, good kick" chasing down a decent graded stakes winner.  can he get up in time to nail them?   could be decent price worth a shot for me.   

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#2
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:42:54 AM

gulfstream race 1 - passing. 

maiden claimers trying to make it around two turns without collapsing.  Castellano/Maker have what will be a 3/5ish chalkie in here.  the horse did run a fig last out substantially higher than the rest of the field and it was on dirt around two turns.  however, this isn't Curlin out there powering home he was a heavy chalk and got nailed "clear pace, gave in" so I sure as hell am not going to trust him.  it's possible he is simply faster than the others but given the distance if someone else improves and he gets leg weary late . . . . .  well you get the picture.  if you bet him and he wins at 3/5 who the hell cares.  if you bet him and he folds up late only yourself to blame. 

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#3
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:46:36 AM
                       best of luck today atlas
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#4
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:50:45 AM

gulfstream race 3 - passing.

printed this one off of Formulator by accident so I actually looked at it.  10K claimers non winners of three lifetime I can't trust any of them.  too much of a pattern of throwing in the towel at the top of the stretch.  gun to my head the 7 at 5/1ish looks somewhat reasonable.  she actually kept upright and won at a one turn mile and sprinting shorter so relative to these the pace/stamina might be there.  however, she was in an allowance race last out and now they are willing to flush her down the toilet for $10,000.  also, since 11/3 only two drills spaced a month out from each other

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#5
Posted: 1/5/2013 11:51:07 AM
thanks Phil.  same to you buddy
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#6
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:04:10 PM

gulfstream race 4 - passing.

full field of twelve going 7.5F on the lawn maiden claimers.  three are firsters and the ones that have run have essentially shown nothing.  some going dirt/turf but not a lot of info to determine who will move up I find these to be more of a crapshoot than handicapping challenge.

hey, check out the 13 getting in off the AE to make the debut.  she has four drills three of them only 3F.  oh yeah, one was on June 30th, the next on Nov 23, again on Dec 1st, and again on Dec 28th.  you think she is fit and healthy? 

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#7
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:20:40 PM

gulfstream race 5 - passing.

this is probably a playable race but for me a handful of them look virtually the same and a few of those are coupled entries which will flatten out the odds.  the 3 has really sprung to life for her new trainer and this guy's numbers are ridiculously strong in these situations.  but she is what she is I don't know if she will suddenly be clearly faster than the others in here. 

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#8
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:25:45 PM
Gulfstream races 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are playable for me depending on the tote.
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#9
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:06:26 PM
b.o.l champ 
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#10
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:18:46 PM
BOL Today 
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estes1717
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#11
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:23:59 PM
nice start

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#12
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:26:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

gulfstream race 2

4

0.20/0.20/0.40

4/1 ml.  expecting the boys to be all over the 1 and the 6 so maybe this guy gets ignored to above 5/1ish.  late speed, pattern, distance, stamina.  has been able to mow down fields of this level or higher from off the pace when he gets a decent to fast pace in front of him.  expecting the 1, 6, and 7 to get out there setting the clip and beating up on each other.  1 and 6 have been able to hold on late at Calder against weaker but not so much against tougher and at GP.  1 was flat last time out off the bench.  4 has run well fresh off the pine.  three drills since last spaced 9-10 days apart which I can accept he's a 6YO and knows what to do when the gates open and no need to beat the hell out of him in the morning.  race off the bench about a year ago at NYRA he was moving really well late "inside 5/16-3/16, good kick" chasing down a decent graded stakes winner.  can he get up in time to nail them?   could be decent price worth a shot for me.   

 

gulfstream

 

4/1 not bad.  nice to get an objection to go my way.  i thought it was legit the horse drifted way out.

off the pace with the late speed

 

damn players caught on I was hoping for 5/1 or more.  the 1 was the chalkie and was flat . . . . . . funny just like the last time he came off a layoff. 

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#13
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:32:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by estes1717:

nice start

 

thanks guys.  trying to make a decision on race 6 now.  toughie.  can't decide between two of them but it could go a number of different ways.  should be some value in race 6. 

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#14
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:32:49 PM
Love that track i gre up 15 miles north in Ft Lauderdale in the 80s
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estes1717
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#15
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:33:11 PM
grew
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#16
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:19:08 PM

Arcadia conditions:  main track fast and turf firm.  temporary rail is at 8 feet.  Neglible distance for the rail very minimal impact in my view.  Nothing down the hill today either all two turn races on the lawn.

race 1 - passing.

Yikes good luck wth these horses.  Extremely modest maiden claimers here could be a very chalkish 8/9 exacta combo if hat 9 doesn't crumble running on dirt.  not for me.   

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#17
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:28:31 PM

santa anita race 2

9

0.15/0.15/0.30

12/1 ml.  lighter play.  recency (fitness), J/T combo.  open company MSW which i really like but I just don't see anyone here that jumps out at me.  little 5.5F dash here.  swinging for the fences here.  like the outside post and Julio going to Gomez for this.  like the fitness in the drills (on paper at least).  long series of drills here.  four back a nice 5F move out of the gate.  then a 6F move out of the gate.  then a 7F stamina builder.  then a snappy 5F bullet fastest of fifty that day.  he could come out running.

now, bear in mind Daddy is 0/31 with firsters.  but, the tree is full of winners.  baffert has a couple here and Sadler's looks decent maybe this guy is 10/1 or so. 

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#18
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:41:30 PM

gulfstream race 6

1

0.20/0.20/0.40

8/1 ml.  pattern, late speed, recency.  wide open race and a crappy post position according to the data but a chance to save ground.  like how he is improving and really woke up going around two turns (right at GP) on the green adding the shades and the meds.  like that skipper puts him right back into a race with a light drill in between.  like that last out with the shades on he did not try to get out front he relaxed and came from well off the pace.  gobbled up seven other horses in the final quarter last out into a very, very slow pace he could do better potentially with a faster clip up front.  nobody looks like they explode late in the lane here (6 could be tough theoretically) so I will give him a shot to gun them all down. 

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#19
Posted: 1/5/2013 2:53:44 PM
gulf 6 figured the boys would whack this 6 down he's the fav right now.  never been on the green but the blood is screaming turf and he got two drills on the lawn heading into this and gets Castellano.  i am willing to fade him.  i just don't like his last race (granted it was dirt) where he was far back and just basically didn't do anything.  he didn't really make up any ground and that was around one turn (it was a one turn mile).  but. he might love the lawn you never know
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#20
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:16:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

gulfstream race 6

1

0.20/0.20/0.40

8/1 ml.  pattern, late speed, recency.  wide open race and a crappy post position according to the data but a chance to save ground.  like how he is improving and really woke up going around two turns (right at GP) on the green adding the shades and the meds.  like that skipper puts him right back into a race with a light drill in between.  like that last out with the shades on he did not try to get out front he relaxed and came from well off the pace.  gobbled up seven other horses in the final quarter last out into a very, very slow pace he could do better potentially with a faster clip up front.  nobody looks like they explode late in the lane here (6 could be tough theoretically) so I will give him a shot to gun them all down. 

nothing.  slow up front and he did not fire up.  5 took it.  last out he was allowed to crawl up front and take them all the way and the exact same thing happened here for him. 

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#21
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:30:48 PM

gulf 8

5 WP

5/2 on the board.  didn't expect this much action.  pattern, recency.  should improve.  showing more of a bounce in his step in the AM.  more ground should help.  0.75 units total.

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#22
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:47:27 PM
4th at 7/2.  way too far back came rolling late.
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#23
Posted: 1/5/2013 3:54:15 PM

gulfstream race 8

2 WP

4/1.  1 unit total.  late speed, pattern, distance.  should be full of energy late here 2nd off the bench. 

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#24
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:15:41 PM
4th at GP.  nothing at SA.  sorry guys.  obviously i need to get back on track here. 
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#25
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:25:41 PM

SA 3

6 WP

9/1 on the tote.  0.75 units.  swinging against the 1/5 chalk here.  wire to wire or nothing. 

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