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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Saturday BC Cheat Sheet/Recap/Plays
Midnight1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
Midnight1
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#1
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:08:17 PM

Finished my capping for now. I email this to buddies who are not regular horse players & try to break it down a little for them before we leave for the track. Thought I share it here as well. Still working on Pic3's & 4's but I'll be playing my Dad's 248 & 135 tri boxes & his tri key of 2/567 in every race as soon as I get to the track tomorrow so I don't forget them. Here goes:

Race 4 1M Juvenile Turf

 

Brief Review…#1 Summit County (ML 30-1)-Naki/Romans; won 1 of 5; 0-3 on turf; #2 Artigiano (ML 8-1)..GoDolphin Distorted Humor colt; 4 of 6 ITM on T with 1 win. #3 George Vancouver (ML 8-1)..Tabor owned; 0-5 on T; stretching out; #4 Gervinho (ML 15-1).. Bejarano/Gaines; 2-2; 1-1 @ dist; heavily bet in both starts; #5 Fantastic Moon (ML 12-1)..won first 2 races before throwing a in a clunker in his last; seems to find traffic problems. #6 Dundonnell ML (4-1). Juddmonte Farms owned; 4-4 ITM with 2 wins; going a little longer. # 7 Brown Almighty (ML 20-1)..Kent D’s only BC mount of the day; Big Brown colt; 4-4 ITM; 2nd to #8 Balance the Books; 4-2-2-0. #8 Balance the Books (ML 8-1)..Julien/Brown/Klaravich combo; won 2 in a row; 3-3 ITM. #9 Noble Tune (ML 6-1)..Ramon/Brown; won both races easily off the pace; shortens to a mile here. #10 Joha (ML6-1)..Upgrade Javier from Rajiv; 6-6 ITM; won 3 of 6; #11 Dry Summer (ML 10-1).Talamo/Mullins;O’Neil/Reddam combo; beaten chalk in last two. #12 I’m Boundtoscore ML(20-1)..Own/Tr Rankin 5-5 ITM; 1-1 @ dist; Sarah Rook gets a chance to ride in a BC race. #13 Know More (ML 8-1) Gomez/O’Neil/Reddam combo; beaten fav in last 2; 1st time on T.   #14 Lines of Battle (ML 12-1)..Tabor owns; 3-4 ITM with 2 wins; Going longer & looks to be coming into the race nicely.

 

Recap…I’ve been off Julien’s wagon after seeing some questionable rides. But he’s on a couple of live horses one of which is # Balance the Books. I’ll protect myself with with Ramon on #9 & Javier on #10.

 

Play: WP # 8

Ex/ Tri Box  8-9-10  

 

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#2
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:09:29 PM

Race 5 7F Filly & Mare Sprint

 

Brief review…#1 Teddy’s Promise (ML 20-1)..won 2 of 5 @ dist; grass to dirt move; beaten by others in this race. #2 Belle of the Hall (ML 20-1)..believe jock Ortiz to be dangerous in exotics here; 5 of 8 ITM; likes to close going wide. #3 Dust and Diamonds (ML 9/2)..Julien/Assman; won 5 of 9; going longer here. #4 Strike the Moon (ML30-1)..love seeing Lezcano up again; 2nd by 5 to Groupie Doll & he’s finished 2nd 7x; will use in exotics. #5 Rumor (ML 20-1)..won 5 of 11; 10 out of 11 ITM; Indian Charlie filly; tired badly in only attempt going 7F. #6 Turbulent Descent (ML 5-1)..JV/Pletch/Tabor combo; beaten fav in last; won 8 of 13 & 4 of 6 @ the dist. #7 Great Hot (ML30-1)..1 of 7 @ SA; already beaten by others in race. #8 Musical Romance (ML 4-1)..SFLA connections & defending champ; not a big fan of Trainer Kaplan. #9 Groupie Doll (ML 1/1).. has won 4 in a row; 6-6 ITM @ dist. #10 Switch (ML12-1)..7-8 ITM @ dist winning 3; beaten by 3 others in the race.  

 

Recap—I saw #9 Groupie Doll beaten 3x @ GP earlier in the year & expect her to get into a speed dual with #3 Dust and Diamonds. Hopefully that will set it up for Lezcano closing with #4 Strike the Moon.

 

PlayWPS #4

 

EX/TRI BOX 3-4-9

 

 

Race 6 1Mile Dirt Mile

 

Brief Review…#1 Rail Trip (ML 10-1)..won 3 of 4 @ SA; 1-1 on dirt; nice Beyer figures. #2 Delegation (ML 12-1)..Canadian connection; won 4 of 6; 6-6 ITM; seems to find racing trouble but wins. #3 Jersey Town (ML 4-1)..Javier/Tagg combo; 17-20 ITM; won 2 of 6 @ dist. #4 John Scott (ml 12-1)..beaten fav in last; won 5 of 9; 1-1 @ dist. # 5 Fed Biz (ML 6-1)..Talamo/Baffert; won 3 of 3 @ dist; heavily bet in all 5 races. #6 Shackleford (ML 2-1)..lost to #3 Jersey Town by 3 in last; colt by Forestry; Ramon/Romans connection. #7 Emcee (ML 5/2)..Alan Garcia’s only BC mount; GoDolphin/McLaughlin have him going longer but this one seems to get better the longer he goes. #8 Tapizar (ML 12-1)..colt out of Tapit; Naki/Assman hookup; won 2 of 4 @ SA but 0-2 @ dist; ran 6th to Jersey Town. #9 Second City (ML 30-1)..out of Distorted Humor and owned by Reddam; won 4 in a row before a clunker in his last; Gutierrez rides for the 1st time.

 

Recap..Got a chance to see # 5 Fed Biz yesterday & he’s a beauty. Jersey Town & Emcee will be his toughest competition yet. But…I’m going with the colt who is undefeated at the distance.

 

Play. WP #5

  

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#3
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:11:57 PM

Race 7  6.5F Turf Sprint

 

Brief review…#1 California Flag (ML 6-1)..been away 6 mths; won 6 of 9 @ SA & 5 of 7 @ dist. #2 Camp Victory (ML 10-1)..0-4 @ dist; Julien replaces Talamo; looks like he wants to run longer. #3 Great Mills (ML 20-1)..Bejarano replaces Julien; tired in last @ 5.5F vs # 9 Bridgetown; first try @ this dist. #4 Tale of a Champion (ML 30-1)..Tyler Baze takes over; good try in last @ this dist; addition of blinkers may help. #5 Next Question (ML 10-1)..won 2 in a row with Ramon; stretches out a little here but has already won @ 7F. #6 Upgrade (ML 30-1)..love trainer Nihei; just missed in his last but this company is much tougher. #7 Reneesgotzip (ML 8-1)..Gomez/Miller; 1st time on grass; 6 of 7 ITM. #8 Great Attack (ML 10-1)..Rosario/Ward; Ward tries to win his first Grade1 race but this one has been away 6 mths. #9 Bridgetown (ML 9/2)..JV/Pletch/Melynk combo is tough; has won 2 in a row with top Beyer numbers. #10 Corporate Jungle (ML 6-1)..Javier/Chad Brown/West connection also tough; last two were vs Wise Dan & one was good & the other a clunker. #11 Mizdirection (ML 20-1)..11-11 ITM; won 2-2 @ SA; been away 5 mths; Beyer #’s nothing special. #12 Chosen Miracle (ML 15-1)..Martin Garcia’s first time up for Hollendofer; 3-1-2-0 @ dist. #13 Unbridled’s Note (ML 5-1)..Naki/Assman; 1-1 @ SA & dist; two very strong races in a row. #14 Starspangledbanner (ML 10-1)..Tabor owns; has won 7 of 21 lifetime; needs a closer look.

 

Recap..California Flag got the lousy luck of drawing the 1 hole. #5 Next Question won a tough race about 3 weeks ago; wondering if he bounces. #8 Great Attack has been away 6 mths for Ward; probably needs a race. We come to #9 going longer & #10 shortening. As well as #11 who is undefeated @ the dist & SA.

 

Play..WPS # 6 (purely a play on Trainer Michelle Nihei)

Not sure where else I’ll land in this one.   

 

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#4
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:13:49 PM

Race 8  1 1/16th Juvenile

 

Brief review…#1 Title Contender (ML 6-1)..Bargia/Baffert/West connection; 1-1 @ SA; going a little longer here. #2 Speak Logistics (ML 8-1)..like the Serpa/Plesa connection; has won his last 2 of 3 races; stepping up in class. #3 He’s Had Enough (ML 20-1)..nice looking Tapit colt owned by Reddam but last 2 races weren’t so hot. #4 Shanghai Bobby (ML 2-1).unbeaten in 4 races; Rosie rides for Pletch/Magnier; definitely the one to beat. #5 Monument (ML 12-1)..Talamo/Sadler; has won 3 of 4 & 1-1 @ this distance. #6 Dynamic Sky (ML 12-1) colt out of Sky Mesa; not high on jock Contreras; 3-3 ITM. #7 Capo Bastone (ML 15-1).. Rosario/Sadler; has found traffic in all 3 races; Rosario will be the 4th different jock to ride this one; he may be a load to handle; soon to be a gelding?? # 8 Fortify (ML 9/2)..Ramon/McLaughlin/GoDolphin connection; 3-3 ITM; lost twice to #4 Shanghai Bobby. #9 Power Broker (ML 5/2)..Bejarano/Baffert/West combo; 3-4 ITM; 1-1 @ dist; 98 Beyer in last.

 

Recap..Sadler & Baffert both have 2 in this race but that hasn’t scared anyone away. #4 Shanghai Bobby is Rosie’s only mount Saturday, he’s undefeated and only possible knock is he hasn’t gone the distance yet while 2, 5 & 9 have already won at that distance. Now that may no mean squat but…..

 

Play WPS #2 (purely a Serpa/Plesa combo play)

TRI KEY 9/248   

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#5
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:15:28 PM

Race 9  1 1/2M Turf    

 

Brief review..#1 Point of Entry (ML 3-1)..JV/Shug/Phipps connections; won 7 of 14 & 4-4 @ the dist; best American shot in the race. #2 Turbo Compressor (ML 15-1)..Bravo/Pletch; won 7 of 16 but lost by 31 lengths to #1. #3 St. Nicholas Abbey (ML 7/2).. owned by Tabor; 15-18 ITM; ran a clunker in his last. #4 Treasure Beach (ML 12-1) ..ran a good 2nd to Point of Entry in last but not much before that & hasn’t won since August of 2011. #5 Shareta (ML 7/2)..impressive looking filly; 12-15 ITM & 1-1 @ dist; big chance. # 6 Cogito (ML 30-1)..owned by Reddam but only has 5 races under his belt; hasn’t won since May. #7 Little Mike (ML 12-1)..Ramon/Romans combo; love this guy but don’t know if he can get the distance because there’s other front running speed in the race; he’s won 11 of 16 on the grass; he won the Arlington Million @ 1 ¼ but they were getting to him. #8 Kindergarden Kid (ML 30-1) Julien/Miller. Ran 3rd to Point of Entry; 3-1-0-2 @ dist. #9 Dullahan (ML 12-1)..heard Trainer Romans say Dullahan prefers the grass where his record is 4-0-2-1; already pocketed 1.8 mil. #10 Optimizer (ML 20-1)..won 2 in a row for trainer Lukas who hasn’t won a big race in quite a while; won 3 of 5 on turf. #11 Slim Shadey (ML 10-1)..has won 3 of 5 @ SA; wire to wire in his last @ 1 ¼ mile. #12 Trailblazer (ML 6-1).. ran a big race in his last & only US start running 2nd to Obviously; don’t know if this is a mis-print but in June 2011 racing in Japan, he went off @ 319-1!

 

Recap..I know a Euro is suppose to win this one but I can’t keep my eyes off #1 Point of Entry. He’s undefeated @ the distance, we have the Shug/JV combo & 4 100+ Beyers in a row. Defending chaml #3 St. Nicholas Abbey hasn’t won since June. #5 Shareta looks physically powerful. And they will have to catch #7 Little Mike as Ramon tries to nurse him like he did in the Arlington.

 

Play. TRI Key..1/357& 12

 

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#6
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:17:10 PM

Race 10  6F Sprint     

 

 Brief review..#1 Sum of the Parts (ML 20-1)..Julien/Amoss/Klaravich connection; won 5 of 10 & 3 of 7 @ dist; he’s won 4 of his last 5 but will get out from the rail? #2 Jimmy Creed (ML 6-1)..colt of out Distorted Humor; 5-5 ITM & won 2 of 3  @ dist; likes to close off the pace. #3 Gantry (ML 10-1)..big jock upgrade to Javier from Eramia; has won 7 of 14 but was beaten fav in last; nice Beyer #’s; saw this one @ Calder when he shipped in for a Grade2 race & liked what I saw with him winning by 5. #4 Coil (ML 5-1)..Garcia/Baffert’ has won 6 of 11 & 3-3 @ dist. #5 Justin Philip (ML 20-1)..Bejarano/Assman/Zayat combo; hasn’t won since May; 5th different jock in 6 races. # 6 Fast Bullet (ML 12-1)..Talamo/Baffert/Zayat combo looks like the better chance but has been away 11 mths; he’s won his only 2 races easily. #7 The Lumber Guy (ML 6-1)..JV/Hushion combo; won 4 of 6 & 2-2 @ the dist. #8 Capital Account (ML 8-1)..Baffert’s 3rd shot in the race; 10-10 ITM & won 5 of 10. #9 Trinniberg (ML 15-1)..SFLA own/trainer connection with regular jock Martinez; only knows how to go to the lead & hold off the closers. #10 Smiling Tiget (ML 12-1)..Ramon hops on board for the first time but this one has also been away 4 mths; 7-7 ITM @ dist. #11 Amazombie (ML 4-1)..defending champ for own/trainer Spawr; loves SA & has won 5 of 8 at the dist. # 12 Hamazing Destiny (ML 12-1)..has come up short in last 3 & bettors haven’t liked his chances. #13 Poseidon’s Warrior (ML 15-1)..has won 7 of 18 & 6 of 13 @ dist; dangerous Speightstown cold with jock Ortiz riding; using in the exotics. #14 Boxeur Des Rues (ML 30-1) has only 2 wins in 14 tries; closed nicely in his last but…..

 

Recap…I’m all in on #3 Gantry for two main reasons. I mentioned seeing him race @ Calder & although he didn’t beat much that day, he looked special. I realize this is his toughest race yet but that can be said about almost every one racing Saturday. My other reason is something I’ve talked about a few times. I was shocked to see Javier Castellano doesn’t have a mount in the last two races which are the Mile & Classic. Gantry is Javier’s last mount of the day & he’s already on record saying he hates losing his last race of the day because he has to wait until the next day to fix it. I as well as others like Danno have made money with this theory, so I’m not going to change that thinking now.

 

Play #3 WPS

EX Wheel 3/all   

 

 

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#7
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:18:06 PM

Race 11 1 Mile Turf   

 

 Brief review…#1 Mr. Commons (ML 12-1)..Artie Schiller colt; 10 of 12 ITM but has been beaten by others in the race. #2 Wise Dan (9/5)..one to beat. #3 Obviously (ML 6-1)..3-3 @ dist & 10-11 ITM; nice Beyer #’s. #4 Jeranimo (ML 15-1)..looks to close off the pace; 11 of 15 ITM on the grass. # 5 Animal Kingdom (ML 8-1).. been away 8 mths but impressive anyway. # 6 Excelebration (ML 2-1)..biggest challenge to Wise Dan; would have won 6 in a row except for running against Frankel. #7 Wilcox Inn (ML 30-1)..ran a good 2nd to Wise Dan in his last; like his closing style. #8 Suggestive Boy (ML 15-1)..back on turf where he’s won 5 of 8 & 3 of 5 @ the dist; Smith gets on instead of Talamo. # 9 Moonlight Candle (ML 6-1)..trainer Freddie Head is always live; won 7 of 13 on turf..

 

Recap..#2 Dan Wise will be the one to beat. #3 Obviously is in great form, undefeated at the distance & has red-hot jock Talamo riding. Freddie Head’s # 9 Moonlight Cloud also caught my attention. But all the greats get beat & today # 6 Excelebration looks like the winner to me. He beat everyone on the other side of the pond except Frankel. The jockey son bring home the cash for the trainer Dad.

 

Play EX Wheel 6/all

TRI KEY 6/2357&9  

 

 

Race 12  1 1/4M Classic    

 

Not sure I can add anything to the capping of this race. Game on Dude looks in great shape as the ML favorite. Bill Mott’s birthday is Saturday & maybe Ron the Greek brings him home a big present. BTW..Mott also has Flat Out & To Honor and Serve entered.

 

Play…WP #10 Ron the Greek

   

BOL to all....

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#8
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM
thx - GL
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spliquid
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#9
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:40:52 PM
Good stuff Mids 
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#10
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:42:48 PM
b.o.l  Mids
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#11
Posted: 11/2/2012 5:03:25 PM

Mega..

sp...

mstr..

It's been bombs away as usual.....

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