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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Breeders Cup 2012 Thread
GameHunter send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/2/2012 1:02:21 AM
Best of luck to everyone this weekend.

I'm a bit behind in my BC capping with the effects of Sandy so prevalent in this area. Heck, I haven't even gotten an updated hard copy DRF since the pre-post version.

I will try to memorialize my thoughts throughout the 2 days here.
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#2
Posted: 11/2/2012 1:11:52 AM
JUVENILE SPRINT

As I examine a possible Pick 6 ticket, my first inclination was to single #3 Merit Man. However, the new rule that 2 year olds cannot use lasix is a huge factor. Merit Man ran one of the best races for a 2 year old in his win in the Tim Conway. His sheet number of a 3 was staggering for a 2 year old. However, that as on Lasix. This horse looks to be the overachieving type, being bought for just $7500 has a baby and when you throw in the "no lasix" angle, it's tough to single him despite the staggering figure.

#5 Super Ninety Nine posted a solid Beyer, albeit on Lasix, in his maiden score which was at Santa Anita

#1 Hightail is still a maiden but 5 of his 8 races have been run without Lasix and he's posted some decent Beyers with no meds.

#7 Sweet Shiley Mae - has some decent numbers but not keen on fillies in with the boys and shipping cross country doesn't add to her chances.

Jury is still out but I'm not sure I can single #3 Merit Man here in the P6 but nobody else is jumping out at me....need to think longer about it.
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#3
Posted: 11/2/2012 1:23:07 AM
MARATHON

I have true love for #10 Eldaafer as she started off my P6 ticket in the 2010 BC at 10-1 which led me the biggest parimutuel score of my career. However, while he is a contender, I am leaning elsewhere. Here are my early thoughts:

#7 Not Abroad has some solid sheet number and a nice 20 out of 33 top two finishes.The 1 3/4 miles is a question like it is for most in here, but he's very intriguing.

#2 Fame and Glory gets a good ground saving post and has won 14 of his 25 career races (all overseas). Has some great long distance experience and has banked $2.3 million. Has won 2 of 4 at this distance and has experience carrying high weights. Big chance.

#1 Atigun gets a few pound allowance as a three year old and should get a great ground saving trip from the rail which is very important in the Marathon. Has some solid sheet numbers at a bit shorter distances.

#4 Grassy - solid numbers and has some of the better distance experience of the Americans.
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#4
Posted: 11/2/2012 6:04:45 AM

Hi! Long time mate! Hope you're well. One thing to note from a European perspective: the ground is firm which is unheard of in Europe. Very hard to be confident that your horse can act on the ground but I've been picking on form and with evidence they can act on the ground.

Passing on the Sprint and trying to get matched on Betfair a place lay on Fame and Glory around 7/5 in the Marathon. That means I'm betting on Fame and Glory finishing out of the top 3 at 5/7. Chalky bet but he is unproven on dirt and looks quirky now. Might play Worth Repeating closer to the race for peanuts.

The market for the Juvenile Fillies Turf  looks about right with the top four deservedly at the head of the market. Sky Lantern should like the ground and is a deserving favourite. Flotilla is interesting as her dam thrived on quick ground in California and her sire is an AMerican sire Mizzen Mast. Hard to know whether she goes on the ground and I'd need to watch her gallop down to the start (if they do). She doesn’t show any pronounced high knee action and the trainer knows the time of day and surely wouldn’t be running her here if he wasn’t confident. Spring Venture and Watsdachances could be anything and whilst I did fancy Watsdachances she has been racing on Lasix in her two US start and I'm holding fire on any bet until closer to the time.


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#5
Posted: 11/2/2012 6:05:17 AM

Ridasiyna was the first bet I locked in at 4/1 eachway (top 3 for money back). However I'm now a touch apprehensive about the ground. As I said firm conditions are unheard of Europe and both Nahrain and The Fugue should act on it but Ridasiyna's ability to handle the going has to be taken on trust. She has far superior form to Nahrain and Zagora and in fact, I would say she has marginally better form then The Fugue who was all at sea in the soft ground on her last start. However she hasn’t run for a while BUT this has been her target and she should be fit and ready. I’d love to have a punt on her too but her price, though deserved is a little shorter then I’d like.

 

Ladies Classic looks a good race. I initially thought Royal Delta but this year’s renewal looks a lot stronger. I have question: In Europe in all aged stakes, the elder generation have been beating the classic generation with ease. Has that been the case in America? I’m not sure but all over the world, the older generation has held sway and I’d much rather back either Royal Delta or Awesome Feather ahead of Questing and My Miss Aurelia. But the problem is there is simply no way to draw any conclusion as to the merits of either form against each other. For me, the kicker is price and I’ll chance Awesome Feather at 9/2 EW for small stakes and just for interest too!

The Last race is the Twilight Derby on turf in which there are a couple of raiders in Speaking of Which from Ireland and Grandeur from the UK. Speaking of Which is the higher rated horse BUT I think Grandeur will like the ground better and is a useful horse in his own right. He’ll carry my EW money for interest!

GL!

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#6
Posted: 11/2/2012 6:34:53 AM
*Going back to the firm description.. In Europe most of the quick going is described as Good to firm with perhaps firm in places. There is also a good covering of grass that looks more like a rough (in golf terms) rather then the fairway conditions we'll see at Santa Anita.

*Flotilla is an interesting one as I'm watching her race in France where it was heavy ground and her knee action is not pronounced as it is with Silasol the winner. Initially I thought there was no knee action but I will have to wait for the gallop to the start (if any) to confirm whether she acts on the quick going or not.


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#7
Posted: 11/2/2012 8:36:14 AM
GH, i was also intrigued by Grassy in the marathon. Any concerns that he has never ran in dirt? I like that Gomez is up he has a solid breeders cup history. I also like Junipers Pass won 2 G2 races last year at SA. GL
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#8
Posted: 11/2/2012 8:46:12 AM
And GC your input and info on the euros is fantastic as i always have problems trying to cap them based on the racing form. Thanks!
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#9
Posted: 11/2/2012 9:57:21 AM
Nice  odds on  Hightail  Shortens route

Will include in a few.

best of luck 
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#10
Posted: 11/2/2012 10:10:43 AM
First off Good luck to everyone  today and tomorrow. Excited about a great card. maybe we can catch a few bombs.

I Think In Lingerie  has a legit shot at a piece of the Filly Mare Turf. Has flourished on synthetics which can often translate to turf and has a :46 work on the turf leading up to this. Her campaign on dirt was not a terrible one . She simply could not compete in that strong division against the likes of Miss Auriellia and Questing. I think Pletcher did the sneaky smart thing here and found possibly a softer spot for this one to maybe grab a piece. I will be using her with The Fugue Risdayna and I'm a Dreamer in the tri and super. Good luck everyone
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#11
Posted: 11/2/2012 10:40:12 AM
GL GH
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#12
Posted: 11/2/2012 10:54:49 AM
GL today 
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#13
Posted: 11/2/2012 11:13:51 AM
cyph

Good class horse and her breeding suggests she will flourish on grass.
Best early speed so maybe she can steal this .

Nice angle and gl to you sir
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#14
Posted: 11/2/2012 11:38:11 AM
Gl Fellas  
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#15
Posted: 11/2/2012 12:19:00 PM
Game....
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#16
Posted: 11/2/2012 2:57:57 PM
GC-

Excellent insight. I definitely like Europeans getting lasix. Nahrain in the Filly and Mare Turf has flourished in her two attempts with Lasix and gets it back today.

To answer one of your questions, I typically give an edge to older horses against 3 year olds and as such, am leaning strongly on Royal Delta today.

GL
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#17
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:01:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cyph718:

First off Good luck to everyone  today and tomorrow. Excited about a great card. maybe we can catch a few bombs.

I Think In Lingerie  has a legit shot at a piece of the Filly Mare Turf. Has flourished on synthetics which can often translate to turf and has a :46 work on the turf leading up to this. Her campaign on dirt was not a terrible one . She simply could not compete in that strong division against the likes of Miss Auriellia and Questing. I think Pletcher did the sneaky smart thing here and found possibly a softer spot for this one to maybe grab a piece. I will be using her with The Fugue Risdayna and I'm a Dreamer in the tri and super. Good luck everyone


In Lingerie will be on my Pick 6 ticket. Solid sheet numbers, albeit on synthetic and dirt but I give her a big chance.  also like Marketing Mix a lot in there and Nahrain and Zagora. Ridasiyna won't be on my ticket. The Fugue maybe.
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#18
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:20:19 PM
JUVENILE SPRINT

Really tough to single #3 Merit Man here without the lasix and questionable pedigree. For Pick 6 purposes I am playing the #3 and #5 Super Ninety Nine evenly and using #1 Hightail on a small saver ticket.

#5 SUPER NINETY NINE
#3 MERIT MAN
#1 HIGHTAIL

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#19
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:22:34 PM
MARATHON

#7 NOT ABROAD
#1 ATIGUN
#2 FAME AND GLORY
#4 GRASSY
#6 CALIDOSCOPIO

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#20
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:24:31 PM
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

#4 FLOTILLA
#3 SKY LANTERN
#1 KITTEN'S POINT
#5 SPRING VENTURE
#8 TARA FROM THE CAPE

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#21
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:26:23 PM
JUVENILE FILLIES

Still working on it. The 4 obvious contenders are the only to choose from: #1 Beholder, #5 Dreaming of Julia, #2 Executiveprovilege, #8 Kauai Kate. As of right now, leaning towards #1 and #5.
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#22
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:27:43 PM
FILLY AND MARE TURF

#9 MARKETING MIX
#2 ZAGORA
#8 NAHRAIN
#12 IN LINGERIE
#11 I'M A DREAMER

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#23
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:29:23 PM
LADIES' CLASSIC

#6 ROYAL DELTA

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#24
Posted: 11/2/2012 3:32:26 PM
Ouch.....Super Ninety Nine scratched in the Juvenile Sprint!
I want to beat Merit Man but I hate the choices. Merit Man will be 3:5
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#25
Posted: 11/2/2012 4:04:11 PM
PICK 6 TICKETS

3
1,2,4,6,7,10,11
1,3,4,5,6,8,10
1,5
2,4,8,9,10,11,12
6

______________________

3
1,2,7
1,3,4,5
2,8
2,8,9
6

______________________________

3
1,2,7
1,3,4,5
1,5
2,8,9
1,5

_______________________________

1,7
1,2,7
1,3,4,5
1,5
2,8,9
6
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