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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: BREEDERS CUP 2012
HolyBull send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/16/2012 8:24:31 AM

We are a litte over two weeks out from the 2012 rendition of the Breeders Cup.  I thought it about time we get some dialogue going around these parts.

HB

 

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#2
Posted: 10/16/2012 8:26:36 AM

A good resource for information on the 15 RACES  and some of the contenders that may partake.

http://www.breederscup.com/races

HB

 

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#3
Posted: 10/16/2012 9:58:37 PM
Can't wait
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#4
Posted: 10/22/2012 9:27:26 AM

BC SPRINT

 

The 2012 rendition will be the 29th running of the BC Sprint.  Here are some interesting results from the first 28 dashes:

The favorite is 6 for 28 in the Sprint.  The lowest priced winner was, strangely enough, Eilio in the very first running in 1984.  Eilio went to the gate at $1.30.

12 of 28 winners have paid $20 or more, led by Sheikh Albadou's $54.60 in 1991 and Dancing in the Silks $52.60 in 2009.

Closers (defined by a sprinter four or more lengths off the pace) have won the Sprint 9 of 28 (32% clip)

Front runners (defined by a sprinter within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead after two calls) have won 15 or 54% of all Sprints.

Stalkers (defined as horses between that 1 1/2 and 4 length range at the first two calls) have won 4 Sprints.

The leader at the first call has finished:

1st six times.

In the Exacta (1st or 2nd) 12 times.  A very healthy 43% led by such bombs as Thunderello (2nd in '02 @ 48-1), Xtra Heat (2nd @ 17-1 in '01).

In the Trifecta (1st, 2nd or 3rd) 15 times (54%). 

And in the Superfecta (top four spots) 18 of 28 runnings, led by Atila's Storm in '05 @ 45-1.

The Sprint at Oak Tree Santa Anita

OSA has hosted the BC five times thus far, with 2012 being the sixth.

The most recent two in  '08/'09 were run on the All Weather Track.

Of the races run on dirt, two were won by front runners ( Smile 13-1 in '86 & Cajun Beat 22-1 in '03) and one by a closer (Carmania 5-1 in '93)

The first call leaders on all five races have finished 2nd twice, 3rd once and the other two were towards the bottom of the field.

Here are some of your contenders for BC 2012:

http://www.breederscup.com/contenders/125

Best of Luck!

HB

 

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#5
Posted: 10/22/2012 10:08:06 AM

Lasix Statistics

The Lasix discussion is quite the rage at this years' BC.  One of a few reasons owners like Mike Repole are boycotting the 2012 event.

I did a little research since Lasix has become prevalent at this event and this is what I found:

In the Juvenile Fillies Division there have have been 15 races since 1997, with 178 entrants in those events.  Only 10 of them have raced WITHOUT Lasix since 1997 (four of which were in the 1998 race).  Their results are as follows, 11th, 11th, 8th, 10th, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th, 12th.

I'm not qualified to speak from a medical perspective as it relates to the pros and cons of Lasix.  However, I can asure you that from a handicappers perspective, we have no idea what we'll get from these animals on November 2nd.  Imagine a youth athlete being asked to perform without their asthma inhaler (might do great?, might have to sit out?). (I'm sure there are other better examples)

If Lasix were universally not permitted, then I could live with that.  However, to take that element out for one day (arguably your Superbowl) is unfair, condescending and ignorant all at the same time.

Best of Luck on all the Juvie races, and please be sure to sharpen your darts before you throw them at the form.

HB

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#6
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:14:11 PM
good stuff thanks!!
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#7
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:36:25 AM
tks Hb  .....informative as always
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#8
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:57:00 PM
Bull
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#9
Posted: 10/24/2012 7:13:04 PM
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#10
Posted: 10/24/2012 8:46:02 PM

The BC advance is now available with lifetime PPs.  Lots of homework boys & girls, so geta crackin'!

 

HB

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#11
Posted: 10/26/2012 2:45:08 AM
Liking Beholder in the Juvy Sprint...thoughts?
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#12
Posted: 10/26/2012 8:41:57 AM

I'm going to have a tough time playing any of the 2yo's coming off Lasix (which basically is this entire field), especially one at a short price.

That being said.....She looks to be in top form right now, and will be tough, but will that 108 translate into GI company?

 

HB

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#13
Posted: 10/26/2012 10:52:25 AM
HB on BC day I make my plays and then I also play my numbers in every race in exactas and tri's for a $1.00 straight and box.If a horse is scratched in my numbers I use # 11,12,13 or 14 longest odd method.Hit one tri a few yrs back for 6600.00 and got back 3300.00 for a 12.00 investment.Luck is key for the most part as I'm sure you know.
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#14
Posted: 10/26/2012 11:02:45 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jsab:

HB on BC day I make my plays and then I also play my numbers in every race in exactas and tri's for a $1.00 straight and box.If a horse is scratched in my numbers I use # 11,12,13 or 14 longest odd method.Hit one tri a few yrs back for 6600.00 and got back 3300.00 for a 12.00 investment.Luck is key for the most part as I'm sure you know.

I have a close track buddy who handicaps every race and plays accordingly.  However, on every race he boxes his three digit lottery number in the tri & exacta.  He has certainly had his share of similar bail out stories.

Best of luck on BC days JSAB and hopefully you share some of those plays with us.

HB

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#15
Posted: 10/27/2012 7:52:04 AM

All I'm doing in the 2 year old races without the Lasix is betting $2 win on half of the field that has the worst odds .. Example .. 14 horses .. I'm betting the  7 horses with the worst odds.

This has been a profit over the years , nothing huge , but a profit none the less . This year without the Lasix sets up for some huge prices ..

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#16
Posted: 10/27/2012 11:01:59 PM
Does anybody remember Cardmania he has to be the fastest sprinter i have ever seen,He would come from dead last and blow by everybody in the stretch.
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#17
Posted: 10/31/2012 10:05:45 PM

Hey HB nice to see you.  I took an initial look at Friday to see where there may be some value.  everyone should be able to identify the favs and if they can't they can just take a looksie at the tote board to figure it out.

race 4 - small field and the whole no lasix thing going here.  3 and 5 look like they got the edge on speed/pace/stamina so maybe just a matter of whether they can run without the meds.  gun to my head i'd go with baffert off of just the debut his guy could improve and he won his debut going 7/8ths.  i like that cutback from 7F to 6F plus two solid drills since of course everyone else can see that as well if they choose to look at it that way.  3 and 5 will both be bet heavily and like i said a small field. 

race 5 - race not worthy of the BC but it is what it is.  14F on dirt.  11 at 15/1 ml looks intriguing he's sharp and can show pace hey maybe he never stops.  12 is 5/1 on the ml and looks the best to me based on recency.  distance a wild card here obviously for all of them.

race 6 - another no lasix race for babies.  the 4 at 8/1 and the 14 at 12/1 could be interesting (yes I know the 14 is parked way outside and it is only a mile race). 

race 7 - the 3 at 15/1 ml looks quite intriguing to me (yes I know never been on dirt).  baffert's chalk will get pounded but maybe i'm crazy but she doesn't look fast enough to me to be worth 6/5 in here.  lots of questions here on distance/stamina for the favs and they are without lasix.  i might have to give the 3 a real long look. 

race 8 - toughie here.  nice race.  i can't ignore the 8 at 6/1ish.  she might really like that firm Arcadia lawn and she puts the shades on presumably to keep herself close the whole way around.  a few others look pretty tough as well.

race 9 - part of me thinks the 8 absolutely explodes here and runs very huge.  she'll get bet a bit maybe around 7/2 and she ain't facing all cupcakes.  just looks like she is set for a massive run.

race 10 - not seeing much value here.  doesn't appear as though they can get past the 2, 7, or 8. 

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#18
Posted: 10/31/2012 11:37:55 PM
http://www.informracing.com/courses.htm
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#19
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:38:55 AM
QUOTEInteresting article..

http://businessofracing.blogspot.co.uk/2011/06/lasix-what-rest-of-world-does.html

Originally Posted by HolyBull:

I'm not qualified to speak from a medical perspective as it relates to the pros and cons of Lasix.  However, I can asure you that from a handicappers perspective, we have no idea what we'll get from these animals on November 2nd.  Imagine a youth athlete being asked to perform without their asthma inhaler (might do great?, might have to sit out?). (I'm sure there are other better examples)

If Lasix were universally not permitted, then I could live with that.  However, to take that element out for one day (arguably your Superbowl) is unfair, condescending and ignorant all at the same time.

Completely disagree as major racing centres in UK and Ireland, France, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia do not permit the use of Lasix for the purpose of racing. So yes LAsix is universally NOT permitted yet the US are the only jurisdiction that permits the use of them.

I've known for some time the true pecking order of quality and the US lags behind Europe, Japan in middle distance horses and the Australians for pure speed. The big factor is the TRUE quality of the breed. Drugs masks horses' inadequacies so breeders do not actually get the natural qualities they THINK they are getting in any stallion's offsprings. Just look at baseball as an analogy. The breeders are the GMs giving out contracts to what they THINK are the most productive sluggers only to find out they're completely useless without drugs.

From a handicappers' perspective your lives will be made much easier as there's simply so many stallions. The likes of AP Indy, Storm Cat, Lemon Drop Kid are good proven stallions with Ghostzapper amongst the more recent ones. By separating one horse's true innate and residual class from the rest, the US scene can improve with the elimination of substandard stallions.

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#20
Posted: 11/1/2012 5:27:09 AM
Hey Bull .k up to that site . I checked out the inforracing.com .. interesting just a bit pricey for me .. $24.50 a month .. any way you send me a link for a hook up for that site ? Just thought I'd ask . No big deal .. thanks
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#21
Posted: 11/1/2012 10:41:45 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WallabeeChamp:

Liking Beholder in the Juvy Sprint...thoughts?

 

Beholder is in the BC Juvey for Fillies not the sprint.  Yup, she ran a massive speed fig for a 2YO last out no doubt about that.  gotta go around two turns in this one and without the meds so I can't see myself laying a low price on a 2YO adding 2.5 fourlongs and another turn and losing the lasix.  however, if she really is that fast she certainly could be all alone at the top of the stretch and it will come down to whether she has the gas in the tank to hit that wire before someone nails her. 

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#22
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:43:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Upside:

Hey Bull .k up to that site . I checked out the inforracing.com .. interesting just a bit pricey for me .. $24.50 a month .. any way you send me a link for a hook up for that site ? Just thought I'd ask . No big deal .. thanks

I only posted that so I could easily find the link when I needed to refer to it.  I do not have a membership to it.

Sorry,

 

HB

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#23
Posted: 11/1/2012 7:19:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

Hey HB nice to see you.  I took an initial look at Friday to see where there may be some value.  everyone should be able to identify the favs and if they can't they can just take a looksie at the tote board to figure it out.

race 4 - small field and the whole no lasix thing going here.  3 and 5 look like they got the edge on speed/pace/stamina so maybe just a matter of whether they can run without the meds.  gun to my head i'd go with baffert off of just the debut his guy could improve and he won his debut going 7/8ths.  i like that cutback from 7F to 6F plus two solid drills since of course everyone else can see that as well if they choose to look at it that way.  3 and 5 will both be bet heavily and like i said a small field. 

race 5 - race not worthy of the BC but it is what it is.  14F on dirt.  11 at 15/1 ml looks intriguing he's sharp and can show pace hey maybe he never stops.  12 is 5/1 on the ml and looks the best to me based on recency.  distance a wild card here obviously for all of them.

race 6 - another no lasix race for babies.  the 4 at 8/1 and the 14 at 12/1 could be interesting (yes I know the 14 is parked way outside and it is only a mile race). 

race 7 - the 3 at 15/1 ml looks quite intriguing to me (yes I know never been on dirt).  baffert's chalk will get pounded but maybe i'm crazy but she doesn't look fast enough to me to be worth 6/5 in here.  lots of questions here on distance/stamina for the favs and they are without lasix.  i might have to give the 3 a real long look. 

race 8 - toughie here.  nice race.  i can't ignore the 8 at 6/1ish.  she might really like that firm Arcadia lawn and she puts the shades on presumably to keep herself close the whole way around.  a few others look pretty tough as well.

race 9 - part of me thinks the 8 absolutely explodes here and runs very huge.  she'll get bet a bit maybe around 7/2 and she ain't facing all cupcakes.  just looks like she is set for a massive run.

race 10 - not seeing much value here.  doesn't appear as though they can get past the 2, 7, or 8. 

 

Correction:  in race 9 I was talking about the 5.  Don't want to mislead anyone.  the 5 looks ready to explode to me.  I have the 8 circled as well as a value play on a horse that I see as improving nicely.  i was looking again at these and realized i typed it in here wrong.  the 8 looks like she has learned how to settle down if you analyze the comments and the running lines.  i could see her running very well but not sure if it will be enough against this field. 

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#24
Posted: 11/1/2012 10:46:47 PM
Good luck Atlas!

HB 
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#25
Posted: 11/1/2012 11:10:45 PM
GL guys.
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