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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Belmont Park - 9/23
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
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#1
Posted: 9/23/2012 12:31:41 PM
most of this NYRA card is garbage.  gonna swing at a couple.  0.25/0.25/0.50 unless otherwise stated. 

race 1

5

12/1 ml.  most are firsters the ones with experience not all stars.  recency (pattern in the drills), breeding, trainer.  smaller play 75% of usual


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#2
Posted: 9/23/2012 12:40:34 PM
races 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8 look playable.  2 and 3 could be chalky we'll see. 

race 5 is a pass for me.  state bred 2YO gals loaded with firsters I fidn it very difficult to cap those so i will pass.  race 6 is a big field of N2L on the lawn not for me.  could be a chance for a bomb since they all suck. 

race 9 is the "feature" race.  big field of state breds on turf I am going to pass almost all of them look identical.  good luck.  race 10 is state bred MSW on the lawn and also a pass for me.
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#3
Posted: 9/23/2012 12:49:15 PM
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#4
Posted: 9/23/2012 12:49:37 PM
race 2

5

5/1 ml.  pattern (back to one turn, drop in class, little break and two easy drills), pace, distance

2 concerns me if she improves she might be awful tough
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#5
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:02:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

most of this NYRA card is garbage.  gonna swing at a couple.  0.25/0.25/0.50 unless otherwise stated. 

race 1

5

12/1 ml.  most are firsters the ones with experience not all stars.  recency (pattern in the drills), breeding, trainer.  smaller play 75% of usual




nothing at 14/1.  didn't like the favs and took a shot.  -0.75 units for the scorekeepers.
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#6
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:05:26 PM
race 3 i decided to pass.  would love to beat the 3 and 4 but doesn't appear anyone else has trustworthy enough late speed to do it at this distance of a one turn mile.  maybe and i mean maybe the 5.  the 3 and 4 will both be 4/5ish.  i'll just pass.
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#7
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:13:31 PM
race 4

8

3/1 ml.  9 will be bet quite a bit.  pace, stamina, speed, recency.  think this 8 can either take them all the way or sit a nice stalk and pounce.  almost all of them like to sit back and the others that go early tend to fold up late. 
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#8
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:13:55 PM
WP only in race 4.
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#9
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:27:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 2

5

5/1 ml.  pattern (back to one turn, drop in class, little break and two easy drills), pace, distance

2 concerns me if she improves she might be awful tough


4th at 6/1.  the 2 crushed them at 4/5.  5 looked good going with her but the 2 improved dramatically in terms of pace and then just drew awal easily.
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#10
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:47:46 PM
race 7

4

6/1 ml.  late speed, pattern, recency.  could be a tussle up front maybe she can nail them all in the final sixteenth.  like the improvement
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#11
Posted: 9/23/2012 1:51:41 PM
race 8

6

6/1 ml.  late speed, stamina.  big field on the lawn hopefully she can find a hole.  "wait 5/16, led late" and "wait 1/4, let out 3/16" comments in two of her last three spins.
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#12
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:03:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 3 i decided to pass.  would love to beat the 3 and 4 but doesn't appear anyone else has trustworthy enough late speed to do it at this distance of a one turn mile.  maybe and i mean maybe the 5.  the 3 and 4 will both be 4/5ish.  i'll just pass.

Brother, what do you think of Saginaw continuing to win? Pretty amazing, isn't it? 
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#13
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:04:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 8

6

6/1 ml.  late speed, stamina.  big field on the lawn hopefully she can find a hole.  "wait 5/16, led late" and "wait 1/4, let out 3/16" comments in two of her last three spins.

Brother are any of these best bets, or do you think they all have equal chances of success?
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#14
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:25:16 PM
i would say equal on all of them.  i think races 4, 7, and 8 are fairly wide open and playable.

in race 4 just realize the chalkie is for Chad Brown and has pretty strong recency.  Brown is the best turf trainer in the NYRA circuit without a doubt.
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#15
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:29:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

i would say equal on all of them.  i think races 4, 7, and 8 are fairly wide open and playable.

in race 4 just realize the chalkie is for Chad Brown and has pretty strong recency.  Brown is the best turf trainer in the NYRA circuit without a doubt.

That could be a serious problem. Brown is amazing. I am sitting out today, brother, I just haven't found any "in" races so far.
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#16
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:30:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 4

8

3/1 ml.  9 will be bet quite a bit.  pace, stamina, speed, recency.  think this 8 can either take them all the way or sit a nice stalk and pounce.  almost all of them like to sit back and the others that go early tend to fold up late. 


Belmont

6/1 winner

like  said had a nice edge on Pace.  wire to wire nobody was even close to her just needed to hold on late.  i am shocked they left her at 6/1 but hey i'll take it.
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#17
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:34:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:



Belmont

6/1 winner

like  said had a nice edge on Pace.  wire to wire nobody was even close to her just needed to hold on late.  i am shocked they left her at 6/1 but hey i'll take it.

This was a nice win, brother. Do you flat bet, or did you increase your stake in this race based on your prior losses?
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#18
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:50:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DeadFish2:


This was a nice win, brother. Do you flat bet, or did you increase your stake in this race based on your prior losses?


i assume by "prior losses" you mean i dropped the first two plays.  yes, that does indeed happen in this game especially when you only use the fav maybe 10% of the time (which is where I am at).

No I do not raise it but each play could differ.  each is 2-5% of the daily bankroll unless i decide to go big (only did that 3 times all year).  some are lower than others if I know I am reaching a little bit for price or the race itself has more expected variance.  in race 1 today that was a smaller play.  race 2 and race 4 were one unit each.  race 4 had one unit divided in half on the W and P.
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#19
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:57:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:



i assume by "prior losses" you mean i dropped the first two plays.  yes, that does indeed happen in this game especially when you only use the fav maybe 10% of the time (which is where I am at).

No I do not raise it but each play could differ.  each is 2-5% of the daily bankroll unless i decide to go big (only did that 3 times all year).  some are lower than others if I know I am reaching a little bit for price or the race itself has more expected variance.  in race 1 today that was a smaller play.  race 2 and race 4 were one unit each.  race 4 had one unit divided in half on the W and P.

Nice brother, I like your strategy. Are you up on the year?
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#20
Posted: 9/23/2012 3:27:24 PM
had to step out and take care of something.  the answer is yes, ever so slightly.  a bit over 3%.  so for every $100 wagered a little over $103 returned.  i've had a few nice ones/days.  however, i think NOT playing that much has helped me quite a bit. 

i don't play the pick 6 and play the pick 4 a little here and there.  i'll never have a day where my daily bankroll increases by a factor of ten.  but, if I am off i don't get killed and i can grind it out if i make enough good decisions.
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#21
Posted: 9/23/2012 3:47:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 7

4

6/1 ml.  late speed, pattern, recency.  could be a tussle up front maybe she can nail them all in the final sixteenth.  like the improvement


so here is an interesting situation.  the 1 is at 6/5 right now and the 4 is at 18/1.  everyone sees that the 1 chased a beast (My Miss Aurelia) last time and they are all in.  i see this 1 having to gun it from that post and the 3 is faster than the 1 if the 3 runs her best race.  to me this is a recipe for a speed duel.  a couple others like to go early including the 9.  i don't see any value in the 9 but hey they are playing her. 

so, if they tussle up front maybe someone can nail them all late.  the 4 has improved nicely with the trainer switch and move to dirt sprinting and away from turf.  she can come from off the pace and her speed fig in her last is very competitive with these (88).  biggest risk is that she comes back quick off that effort but it is a good trainer and a class jump so i'll take my chances in this particular scenario.
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#22
Posted: 9/23/2012 3:50:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

had to step out and take care of something.  the answer is yes, ever so slightly.  a bit over 3%.  so for every $100 wagered a little over $103 returned.  i've had a few nice ones/days.  however, i think NOT playing that much has helped me quite a bit. 

i don't play the pick 6 and play the pick 4 a little here and there.  i'll never have a day where my daily bankroll increases by a factor of ten.  but, if I am off i don't get killed and i can grind it out if i make enough good decisions.

Interesting brother. What do you think of Brohamer's pace handicapping?
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#23
Posted: 9/23/2012 4:06:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 7

4

6/1 ml.  late speed, pattern, recency.  could be a tussle up front maybe she can nail them all in the final sixteenth.  like the improvement


5th at 13/1.  nobody went with the 3 and she took off.  i considered her quite a bit but i don't like shorter prices on horses that are inconsistent.  i figured she would be the chalk i am surprised they took the bait on the 9.
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#24
Posted: 9/23/2012 4:11:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DeadFish2:


Interesting brother. What do you think of Brohamer's pace handicapping?


i don't know what that is.  never heard of it.

i don't like computerized pace figs and i don't like trying to combine a million different types of data or statistics from different sources.  for pace i am asking "can this horse win and how can it win?"  does the horse come from the clouds and need a meltdown up front?  can the horse sit in a stalk and pounce?  can it wire them?  of course, ALL of this is relative to today's race under today's conditions against today's competition.  i just use the PPs in DRF.  looking at the splits and speed fig assigned for the race gives me a sense of pace. 
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#25
Posted: 9/23/2012 4:17:24 PM
deadfish - out of curiosity, what is your angle here?  people here know i am not tommy tough nuts behind a keyboard looking to start crap.  so I am just asking since you are new. 
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