Messages

Forum Index : Covers Horse Racing : Messages
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: DADDY LONG LEGS WINS DERBY AT A BIG PRICE
beatymandog
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: betED.com |
beatymandog
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 222
Location: Arizona
#1
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:20:01 PM
I AM IN THE BUSINESS I KNOW HORSES
quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 583
Location: Pennsylvania
#2
Posted: 4/28/2012 1:09:52 PM
Wins which derby?? Because he wont win the Kentucky Derby.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
vetdrm
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
vetdrm
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 8861
Location: Antarctica
#3
Posted: 4/28/2012 1:57:41 PM
would love to know why?


quote
Johnzimbo34 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Johnzimbo34
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 971
Location: Texas
#4
Posted: 4/28/2012 2:21:57 PM
I keep hearing he is the wise guy's horse this year...those never win
quote
Johnnyg7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Johnnyg7
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1755
Location: Pennsylvania
#5
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:10:54 AM
Dubai horses run like garbage in the Derby. Pass....
quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22263
Location: Wisconsin
#6
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:41:29 PM

If he gets a decent post on Wednesday, I'll have money across the board on him and he'll be in every one of my gimmicks.    

The connections alone  LINK might make this horse a good value bet at the huge price he's probably going to go off at.   These people don't ship horses around the world to say "We had a horse in the Kentucky Derby or any other race"   They only ship a horse when they think it has a shot to win the race   

 From what I've read, they are going to try and get him out of the gate very quickly so he's one of the first 4 or 5 horses around the turn.   They know that's there only chance.   He likes to run on the front end.  It's not going to be easy to accomplish that but if they do, he might have a big shot.     If you watch his race from Dubai there is no question in my mind he can get the distance.   The jockey had a hard time pulling him up after that race and that was only 1/16th shorter than the Derby.


ARTICLE  (quote from the jockey below)


“Last year the dirt was quite wet and he missed the break so he didn’t run very well. But if the weather is good the surface will be sound and I think he’ll handle it much better,” he said.

“There’s an awful lot of speed in the race, an awful lot of front-runners. So I think the first two furlongs will be very important. If we get a good draw, and we’re able to get a good position, that will help us,” O’Donoghue added. “His overall form is good. He won the Royal Lodge last year and horses have come out of that and won.”



ARTICLE   (quote below from the trainer of Prospective where he also mentions that the track was weird on Breeders Cup Day because of the rain.)


Prospective won the Tampa Bay Derby to vault him into the Kentucky Derby conversation, and Casse believes the conditions will be much different than that wet November day.

''It was a different track because of the rain. This track (Churchill) not only is affected by moisture, but by the heat,'' Casse said. ''This track, the hotter it gets, the firmer it gets and I think the better he's going to like it. I heard the forecast is for 82 on Derby day, so it'll be just fine with us.''



quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22263
Location: Wisconsin
#7
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:55:40 PM

ARTICLE   (Aiden O'Brien talking about what happened in the Breeders Cup and how it wasn't the dirt that was the problem.   It was the start)


"The Breeders' Cup was more about the start than it was the dirt," O'Brien said from his office at Ballydoyle. "He lost it out of the gate and wasn't as quick enough and sharp enough in the first furlong as we would have liked. But we'll know a lot more in a couple of weeks.

"We have to try anyway. You can't win if you're not in the race. He seems to be fine. He was in Dubai and we obviously were happy with him there, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?"


If you watch the replay of last years Breeders Cup Juvenile, you will also see him jump a shadow or something during the run to the turn.


And about Daddy Long Legs' early speed,  that horse from Australia, "Helmet", that he was running with on the front end in Dubai, is/was one of the best sprinters/milers that country had last year.   And he's got good early speed.    So that's a positive sign that he might be able to get up front in this race if he gets out of the gate better.    Although the overall early speed in that race in Dubai wasn't great.

quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22263
Location: Wisconsin
#8
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:45:45 PM

DADDY LONG LEGS compared to DADDY NOSE BEST  

Some people think Daddy Nose Best has a decent shot in the Derby so I thought I'd make this comparison.    


They are both sired by Scat Daddy, who was the leading first crop sire last year.

LINK

LINK

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daddy Long Legs cost $100,000 and was the 8th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.

Daddy Nose Best cost $35,000 and was the 27th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy by a nose in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.

Daddy Long Legs beat Lucky Chappy by 9 lengths in the G2 UAE Derby in Dubai.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daddy Nose Best lost to Wrote by 3.75 lenths (6th) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.  (with some trouble)

Daddy Long Legs has defeated Wrote twice.   First time in the Royal Lodge as a 2yr old and the second time in Dubai in the UAE Derby as a 3yr old.  

Wrote was #4 on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2 yr olds of 2011.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another thing interesting about Daddy Nose Best is that he came off that Tapeta at Golden Gate and won on dirt at Sunland in the G3 Sunland Derby.   And these two races were after he ran 6 races in a row on turf.

That's very similar to what Daddy Long Legs is trying to accomplish in the Derby.   The UAE Derby in Dubai was run on Tapeta.  Everybody says that  Daddy Long Legs is "American Bred with a dirt pedigree".    That race in the BC Juvenile was more than likely just a bad race.   He has excuses.  


 And besides that,  how reliable is a sample size of 1 when it comes to predicting future events?       You can't say a horse can't run on dirt based on one race.   


LINK to Brisnet Derby PP's

quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22263
Location: Wisconsin
#9
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:59:59 PM

Scat Daddy DRF Past Performances before the 2007 Kentucky Derby    (He's horse #18)


He finished 18th in the Derby and was retired.   But you can see that he liked to run close to the pace.   Daddy Long Legs is the same way.


Master Of Hounds DRF Past Performances


He finished 5th beaten 5 lengths in last years Kentucky Derby at odds of 17-1.    Compare it to Daddy Long Legs past performances.   Some people think Daddy Long Legs is the better horse of the two.      Master Of Hounds had no early speed at all and he had a turf sire, KingMambo. 

quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 583
Location: Pennsylvania
#10
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:06:25 PM
surface aside daddy long legs is just flat out not good enough to win this derby, master of hounds faced a much softer derby field then this one and was no factor. 
quote
Crusher13 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Crusher13
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 3941
Location: Texas
#11
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:48:57 PM
GREYHOUND please make sure you put up a link to Mark Bellings picks again on KY DERBY. Last years analysis was pretty good. Thx and   appreciate ALL the DLL information as he MUST at least be included underneath in  all exotics
quote
seakev1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mandalay Bay |
seakev1
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 726
Location: Massachusetts
#12
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:39:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by beatymandog:

I AM IN THE BUSINESS I KNOW HORSES

What Bidness might that be?

 

quote
djbrow
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
djbrow
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 13347
Location: United States
#13
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:06:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:

DADDY LONG LEGS compared to DADDY NOSE BEST  

Some people think Daddy Nose Best has a decent shot in the Derby so I thought I'd make this comparison.    


They are both sired by Scat Daddy, who was the leading first crop sire last year.

LINK

LINK

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daddy Long Legs cost $100,000 and was the 8th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.

Daddy Nose Best cost $35,000 and was the 27th most expensive of 51 horses sired by Scat Daddy sold in 2010.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy by a nose in the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.

Daddy Long Legs beat Lucky Chappy by 9 lengths in the G2 UAE Derby in Dubai.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daddy Nose Best lost to Wrote by 3.75 lenths (6th) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.  (with some trouble)

Daddy Long Legs has defeated Wrote twice.   First time in the Royal Lodge as a 2yr old and the second time in Dubai in the UAE Derby as a 3yr old.  

Wrote was #4 on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2 yr olds of 2011.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another thing interesting about Daddy Nose Best is that he came off that Tapeta at Golden Gate and won on dirt at Sunland in the G3 Sunland Derby.   And these two races were after he ran 6 races in a row on turf.

That's very similar to what Daddy Long Legs is trying to accomplish in the Derby.   The UAE Derby in Dubai was run on Tapeta.  Everybody says that  Daddy Long Legs is "American Bred with a dirt pedigree".    That race in the BC Juvenile was more than likely just a bad race.   He has excuses.  


 And besides that,  how reliable is a sample size of 1 when it comes to predicting future events?       You can't say a horse can't run on dirt based on one race.   


LINK to Brisnet Derby PP's

Welch has been all over DNB for a few weeks and the guy is tops in watching form.

 

I really hope there is a matchup bet on my book between DLL and DNB.

quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22263
Location: Wisconsin
#14
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:25:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

Welch has been all over DNB for a few weeks and the guy is tops in watching form.

 

I really hope there is a matchup bet on my book between DLL and DNB.




Did Mike Welsch fly to Ireland to watch Daddy Long Legs train?    

quote
djbrow
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
djbrow
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 13347
Location: United States
#15
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:29:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:




Did Mike Welsch fly to Ireland to watch Daddy Long Legs train?    

Point well taken.

He cetainly has seen video of it because he has reported the moves in pretty good detail.

I give you props for picking this horse in the UAE Derby, but I don't see him here.

quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22263
Location: Wisconsin
#16
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:09:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

He cetainly has seen video of it because he has reported the moves in pretty good detail. 



As far as I know Welsch hasn't said anything about Daddy Long Legs so far.     Maybe in the next few days.   He's arriving from Ireland today.   


And I hope you were kidding about the video because there is no way in hell that Mike Welsch has video of this horse working out at Ballydoyle.    

quote
djbrow
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
djbrow
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 13347
Location: United States
#17
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:21:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:



As far as I know Welsch hasn't said anything about Daddy Long Legs so far.     Maybe in the next few days.   He's arriving from Ireland today.   


And I hope you were kidding about the video because there is no way in hell that Mike Welsch has video of this horse working out at Ballydoyle.    

He reported DLL workouts in his daily clocker reports.

And as for the video answer, how do you think he was able to describe Palm Meadow works, etc.?

In this day and age, every Derby contender workout is captured on video.

quote
QBUN send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
QBUN
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 2147
Location: California
#18
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:47:26 AM
i love this stuff
quote
TonyP31 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
TonyP31
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 122
Location: Illinois
#19
Posted: 5/2/2012 7:07:22 PM
Sorry guy.. Not winning this year.. not from the 1 hole..
quote
pulledclear send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
pulledclear
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 3202
Location: United States
#20
Posted: 5/2/2012 8:09:15 PM
 No chance! Fringes maybe, highly unlikely. Win never, please dont waste your money. 
quote
Forum Index : Covers Horse Racing : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.