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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***
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#76
Posted: 4/25/2012 9:21:55 AM
I think Curlin was a better horse but I think Bode has a much more suitable running style then Curlin for the Derby. If I remember correctly Curlin got the highest/same thorograph number as street sense did in the derby but still got beat pretty bad due to a wide trip. Bode will get the right trip so if he is nearly as good as Curlin he will win the derby but we are not positive he can rate and win
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#77
Posted: 4/25/2012 9:38:44 AM
That 2007 Preakness with Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun was a race to remember.
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#78
Posted: 4/25/2012 9:40:41 AM
You're right about him not being able to rate with success........albeit, hes only raced 4 times, at 5/12 trying to rate & coming in 2nd by 2 & at 1 1/6 trying to rate again & finishing 2nd by 3/4 to CC........both times that hes won were wire to wire jobs & both were by more than 9 lengths...............this horse likes to be on the lead & if Trinni & Hansen are out there to challenge him, he wont win imo............

Bode is a fast horse with tactical speed, something that bodes well in the KD...........this horse should be pretty good but in a 20 horse field, I think he has too many challenges to overcome.
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#79
Posted: 4/25/2012 11:14:58 AM
PTB great info as always...when do you think u will post ur plays for d KD??
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#80
Posted: 4/25/2012 1:32:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QBUN:

PTB great info as always...when do you think u will post ur plays for d KD??


Some time after the post position draw next week............
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#81
Posted: 4/25/2012 2:22:11 PM
if u dont mind sharing PTB, what has been ur success in d past w/ d KD?? as always in advance, thanks for sharing...
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#82
Posted: 4/25/2012 2:50:54 PM
Ive always liked the KD because of the value you are getting for the money you're betting..........Where else can you place a $2 wager & have the payoff come back over $500,000? No other sport..............

Not saying you will get those payouts all the time, but you will get value.....like Big Brown in 2008 goes off a a favorite at 2-1 & the exacta comes back $141 & triple $3,400...........in any other regular race, Big Brown would have been 2-5 & the exacta would have payed $25.......

In the late 90's, you only needed to know 2 names in horse racing, Lukas & Baffert.........both of these guys combined won 5 straight derbys. After seeing Baffert losing by a nose to Lukas in 1996 & seeing Silver Charm race in 1997, I knew Baffert would get revenge......

Lukas doesnt have much anymore & Baffert still has decent horses that run in the derby every year. The derby is about who has the horse that is ready for a move forward, that extra 1/4 mile that will help them over their competitors. Trainers arent stupid, at least most arent at this level, they know if they have a decent shot at winning the derby after seeing their horse run in the final prep & working out at CD.

Can any horse win the derby? Of course they can but some are there just to get in the way imo...........Ive looked at the past 20 KD winners & there are only 1 I scratch my head & say, how in the world did he win, & that is Giacomo...........Mine That Bird was playable.

The easiest derbys for me were Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Monarchos  & Funny Cide.......these horses were coming into their own at the right time, even tho Monarchos never won another race in his career 

The hardest before the race of course were War Emblem (cant believe I didnt have this after seeing his beyer & the 911 debacle in New York), Giacomo (never want to see that replay again), 

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#83
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:19:39 PM
Here are some interesting stats/numbers: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-top-five-contenders-and-other-statistics


Since 2006, the beyer figures for the derby winner have been coming down each year........here are the beyer ratings: 2006 Barbaro 111, 2007 Street Sense 110, 2008 Big Brown 109, 2009 Mine That Bird 105, 2010 Super Saver 104, 2011 Animal Kingdom 103, 2012 ???

What gives? 
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#84
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:29:37 PM
Beyer ratings have come down overall, not just the Derby.
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#85
Posted: 4/26/2012 11:57:47 PM
Can anyone confirm that undefeated horses in derby history have finished in the money 60% of time? Saw this posted on a comment on DRF.............
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#86
Posted: 4/27/2012 7:09:38 AM
I need 10 horses to box. Can you tell me which 10 you would use in a 10 horse box? Me and my friend do it every year we just split the cost. Thanx
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#87
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:24:25 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Can anyone confirm that undefeated horses in derby history have finished in the money 60% of time? Saw this posted on a comment on DRF.............

Confirmed.

Scroll down on the link

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-top-five-contenders-and-other-statistics

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#88
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:29:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Ive always liked the KD because of the value you are getting for the money you're betting..........Where else can you place a $2 wager & have the payoff come back over $500,000? No other sport..............

Not saying you will get those payouts all the time, but you will get value.....like Big Brown in 2008 goes off a a favorite at 2-1 & the exacta comes back $141 & triple $3,400...........in any other regular race, Big Brown would have been 2-5 & the exacta would have payed $25.......

In the late 90's, you only needed to know 2 names in horse racing, Lukas & Baffert.........both of these guys combined won 5 straight derbys. After seeing Baffert losing by a nose to Lukas in 1996 & seeing Silver Charm race in 1997, I knew Baffert would get revenge......

Lukas doesnt have much anymore & Baffert still has decent horses that run in the derby every year. The derby is about who has the horse that is ready for a move forward, that extra 1/4 mile that will help them over their competitors. Trainers arent stupid, at least most arent at this level, they know if they have a decent shot at winning the derby after seeing their horse run in the final prep & working out at CD.

Can any horse win the derby? Of course they can but some are there just to get in the way imo...........Ive looked at the past 20 KD winners & there are only 1 I scratch my head & say, how in the world did he win, & that is Giacomo...........Mine That Bird was playable.

The easiest derbys for me were Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Monarchos  & Funny Cide.......these horses were coming into their own at the right time, even tho Monarchos never won another race in his career 

The hardest before the race of course were War Emblem (cant believe I didnt have this after seeing his beyer & the 911 debacle in New York), Giacomo (never want to see that replay again), 

Please explain to me how he was "playable."  I couldn't / wouldn't bet him in that Derby if I could play it today.

Here are the PPs for you.  Draw a line through every race from the Derby up and tell me how. 

http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/pps/minethatbird.pdf

The answer "Calvin Borel" is not allowed. 


HB

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#89
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:18:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HolyBull:

Please explain to me how he was "playable."  I couldn't / wouldn't bet him in that Derby if I could play it today.

Here are the PPs for you.  Draw a line through every race from the Derby up and tell me how. 

http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/pps/minethatbird.pdf

The answer "Calvin Borel" is not allowed. 


HB



When I cap the derby horses, I look for patterns of horses that have ran in the past & how their form looked going into the derby. MTB kind of looked like Funny Cide, the way he won 4 straight races as a 2 year old.....throw out the bad race in the BCJ. 

Then he comes back & loses by a neck at Sunland & the race before the derby, he runs in the Sunland 900k derby with 12 horses & is right there ready to make a move but come in 4th by 3 lengths........to me thats showing that the horse is capable of striking with a longer distance, just like Funny Cide needed a longer distance after losing in the Wood.
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#90
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:50:50 PM

I guess..... I just think it's by far and away the worst form I've seen for a Derby winner ever.  I would have had a hard time liking him in a N2X @ Churchill on the undercard that day.

The one thing I will say, is I think he took money.  I think his odds could have and should have been about 100-1.  I still can't understand how he went only 50-1? 

HB

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#91
Posted: 4/27/2012 4:09:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HolyBull:

I guess..... I just think it's by far and away the worst form I've seen for a Derby winner ever.  I would have had a hard time liking him in a N2X @ Churchill on the undercard that day.

The one thing I will say, is I think he took money.  I think his odds could have and should have been about 100-1.  I still can't understand how he went only 50-1? 

HB



Thats another thing..........MTB & Giacomo were both 50-1 in the ML & both closed at 50-1. Someone knew something about those horses. 

Thing is, I think MTB was playable but I still look at Giacomo & cant figure out how he won besides the pace up front.Thing is, Giacomo was right there in all his previous races so maybe you can make a case for him, although his only winner was his maiden race.
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#92
Posted: 4/27/2012 11:45:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by STEELERS in 07:

I need 10 horses to box. Can you tell me which 10 you would use in a 10 horse box? Me and my friend do it every year we just split the cost. Thanx



Are you playing exactas, triples or superfectas in a 10 horse box? 
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#93
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:12:38 AM
Here is a link to everyones dosage index, there is also other good information on the history of the KD:  http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby12-contenders.htm
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#94
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:25:16 PM
(Dull)ahan doesn't like the track at Churchill. Watched his work which was slow and he didn't gallop out all that well. Stark contrast to his work before the Blue Grass which was powerful and very fast. This is a synthetic/turf horse. I'm completely tossing him.

Union Rags looked amazing. Very focused, straight and powerful down the lane, and a strong gallop out. Julien was a statue for the entire work.
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#95
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:32:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

(Dull)ahan doesn't like the track at Churchill. Watched his work which was slow and he didn't gallop out all that well. Stark contrast to his work before the Blue Grass which was powerful and very fast. This is a synthetic/turf horse. I'm completely tossing him.

Union Rags looked amazing. Very focused, straight and powerful down the lane, and a strong gallop out. Julien was a statue for the entire work.


Johnny, I cant wrap around the idea of playing this horse to win, at least as of now, what are your thoughts towards this horse, meaning if you had to bet the derby today, would you lean his way?
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#96
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:52:59 PM
UR is the best horse and the most visually impressive horse in this race, i was waiting for his last work and it was awesome! He is ut 2012 KD winner, IMO.
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#97
Posted: 4/28/2012 4:28:47 PM
I was so against UR 2 weeks ago but will take a closer look, want to see the post positions as well.................
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#98
Posted: 4/28/2012 4:51:50 PM
I listed the final workout for every winner of the Kentucky Derby since 2000, before the big race, this is what everyone saw:


2000: Fusaichi Pegasus, 30Apr'00 CD 6f ft 1:14.60 

2001: Monarchos, 27Apr'01 CD 4f ft :48 

2002: War Emblem, 30Apr'02 CD 5f ft 1:00 

2003: Funny Cide, 29Apr'03 Bel 5f ft :58 

2004: Smarty Jones, 24Apr'04 CD 5f gd :58

2005: Giacomo, 01May'05 Hol 6f ft 1:11

2006: Barbaro, 29Apr'06 CD 4f ft :46

2007: Street Sense, 01May'07 CD 5f ft 1:01

2008: Big Brown, 01May'08 CD 3f ft :35

2009: Mine That Bird, 27Apr'09 CD 5f ft 1:02

2010: Super Saver, 24Apr'10 CD 4f sy :48

2011: Animal Kingdom, 30Apr CD 6f ft 1:13



So how much do workouts help in capping the derby? I see some really good workouts above & some that were not all that good, so...............



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#99
Posted: 4/28/2012 9:15:09 PM
its not just about the time of the work, its about how the horse looks doing it. like animal kingdoms work last year was on of the most visually impressive pre derby works ive ever seen.
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#100
Posted: 4/28/2012 9:19:11 PM
if you watch the past races of these horses even going back to there 2 year old seasons which horse do you think has the most potential to make the move at the top of the stretch and put the field away??? IMO theres only 1 horse that has the potential to do that in this race and its UR. 1 of probably 8 horses could win but i think hes the only horse who has that kind of potential.
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