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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***ARKANSAS DERBY & BLUEGRASS STAKES***
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/12/2012 2:04:14 AM
The oddsmakers have made Bodemeister the 6-5 favorite coming out of the #11 hole, thats nuts! I am liking a longshot in this race:


#9  Sabercat to win...........

#11 Bodemeister  for 2nd............

#5 Secret Circle for 3rd


Exacta box 9-11


I know Bodemeister has to win to get into the KD, 2nd is no good but if he wins from the #11 hole in the AD, well then he deserves to be in the race on May 5th........Secret Circle should get inside the money but wont be all out in this race because he doesnt need any money to get to the KD, hes already in..........

Optimizer will also be going for the win but a 2nd will also have him going to the KD.............



Gotta look at the Bluegrass & will be back with the picks for that race..............
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#2
Posted: 4/12/2012 2:09:40 PM
9/5 Bode ML. Sabercat needs a quick pace. His Delta win was because the pace was suicidal.
WatchMaker likes "Clever" and I am looking at him too.

"Isn’t He Clever is my play. Isn’t He Clever was a sharp second most recently in the Sunland Derby, one of the quickest Derby preps this year. But not only did Isn’t He Clever have a three- to four-wide trip in that race, I think he also moved way to soon to engage the leaders going into the far turn. He also takes blinkers off Saturday, which should help him relax".

New rider too.
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#3
Posted: 4/12/2012 2:19:48 PM
I'm on Optimizer in Arkansas, if the price is 9-2 or above.    
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#4
Posted: 4/12/2012 2:24:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:

I'm on Optimizer in Arkansas, if the price is 9-2 or above.    


Wise guy horse. Like Nehro last year. Same result. Second maybe.
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#5
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:11:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:



Wise guy horse. Like Nehro last year. Same result. Second maybe.




Glad you know EXACTLY what is going to happen Roused.   

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#6
Posted: 4/12/2012 4:47:42 PM
Bodemeister breaking from post 11 is much better then it appears. There is not a lot of early pace in this race with Scatman heading to the Bluegrass. 
Baffert has also publicly said that Secret Circle runs better with a target in front of him. 

Should be a merry go round race with the Baffert horses running 1-2. Only thing I see interrupting that is Secret Circle shutting it down the final 1/16. This horse has never been seen as a classic distance horse but he has already beaten these horses handily multiple times. This race is MUCH softer then the Bluegrass Stakes and I have not been impressed with any of the AD preps. If Sabercat couldnt close into a LQ in 26+, Bodemeister can canter home from the quarter pole. 
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#7
Posted: 4/12/2012 7:46:21 PM
Arkansas Derby exactas:


Bodemeister with Optimizer


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#8
Posted: 4/12/2012 8:06:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:




Glad you know EXACTLY what is going to happen Roused.   



Just playing, but it does remind me of last years race.
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#9
Posted: 4/12/2012 8:37:04 PM
With Johnny V @ Oaklawn Saturday, I love to see Castellano pick up the mount on Howe Great in the Bluegrass....
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#10
Posted: 4/12/2012 11:25:21 PM
Bluegrass Stakes:


Howe Great for 1st place............

Hero Of Order for 2nd.............

Scatman for 3rd.................
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#11
Posted: 4/13/2012 12:10:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Bluegrass Stakes:


Howe Great for 1st place............

Hero Of Order for 2nd.............

Scatman for 3rd.................


^^^^^

Correction:


Howe Great for 1st place.............

Hansen for 2nd place............

Scatman for 3rd..............


Im throwing Hero Of Order totally out of the money..............
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#12
Posted: 4/13/2012 12:23:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



^^^^^

Correction:


Howe Great for 1st place.............

Hansen for 2nd place............

Scatman for 3rd..............


Im throwing Hero Of Order totally out of the money..............

I thought that was rather ambitious, throwing out Hansen. Makes more sense.
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#13
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:05:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:


I thought that was rather ambitious, throwing out Hansen. Makes more sense.



Yeah, I dont know what I was smoking when I typed the list w/o Hansen in there.........
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#14
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:59:38 AM
good luck with Howe, but Hansen looks tough on the fake dirt.
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#15
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:01:26 PM
  I will take Bodemeister in the AD.  He took all the pressure last time out from an inside post.  Most horses would of folded when they turned for home but he fought his behind off.  I think an outside post and a little more experience under his belt, he should cruise. IMO  Good Luck
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#16
Posted: 4/13/2012 3:34:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by diabolical:

  I will take Bodemeister in the AD.  He took all the pressure last time out from an inside post.  Most horses would of folded when they turned for home but he fought his behind off.  I think an outside post and a little more experience under his belt, he should cruise. IMO  Good Luck



That part in red is why the first thought that went thru my head after that race is "bounce" next time.   

But he's had 5 weeks off and he's working out well and he's got a great trainer so he'll probably be OK. 

Midnight Transfer was only 2 lengths behind Bodemeister in the San Felipe and ran a big one also and he took a big step back in the Santa Anita Derby (7th of 9 beaten 9.5 lengths).    The San Felipe was his first off a layoff though.     A big one coming off a long layoff is supposed to increase the chance of a "bounce".    He had 4 weeks off between the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.   Bodemeister will have 5 weeks.    But Midnight Transfer didn't have to travel to a new track and get used to new surroundings either like Bodemeister has to.


  

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#17
Posted: 4/13/2012 3:59:07 PM

"Bouncing" is a common term uttered by horseplayers. Basically, it’s a negative reaction to the most previous outing. Many handicappers say that usually happens after a thoroughbred exerts a strenuous effort.    


ARTICLE

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#18
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:00:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

The oddsmakers have made Bodemeister the 6-5 favorite coming out of the #11 hole, thats nuts! I am liking a longshot in this race:


#9  Sabercat to win...........

#11 Bodemeister  for 2nd............

#5 Secret Circle for 3rd


Exacta box 9-11


I know Bodemeister has to win to get into the KD, 2nd is no good but if he wins from the #11 hole in the AD, well then he deserves to be in the race on May 5th........Secret Circle should get inside the money but wont be all out in this race because he doesnt need any money to get to the KD, hes already in..........

Optimizer will also be going for the win but a 2nd will also have him going to the KD.............



Gotta look at the Bluegrass & will be back with the picks for that race..............

 

With all due respect,PTB, do you think the horses know this?

I subscribed to this theory for a year or two and found it to be a bad handicapping tool. For example, a lot of people said this last year about Lookin At Lucky going into the Ark Derby and a few others who "didn't need the money." It's all about the form and training. If a horse is moving forward and on training as they are about to enter the KENTUCKY DERBY, no trainer is going to hold back a horse because he doesn't need the money.

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#19
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:05:42 PM

WHOOPS...I mispoke.

NOT the Ark. Derby. Lookin At Lucky's final prep was in the SA Derby where busted his butt and got pushed all around the track and still finished third. Maybe the worse ride Gomez has ever had on a horse.

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#20
Posted: 4/13/2012 9:49:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

 

With all due respect,PTB, do you think the horses know this?

I subscribed to this theory for a year or two and found it to be a bad handicapping tool. For example, a lot of people said this last year about Lookin At Lucky going into the Ark Derby and a few others who "didn't need the money." It's all about the form and training. If a horse is moving forward and on training as they are about to enter the KENTUCKY DERBY, no trainer is going to hold back a horse because he doesn't need the money.



I know what you're saying but its nit whether the horse knows it, its whether the trainer wants his horse to be "all out" the race before the derby. 

Lukas always ran his horses lousy before winning the derby..........Baffert ran Silver Charm & Real Quiet 2nd the race before the derby........War Emblem wasnt his the race before the derby, he picked him up couple weeks before the derby.

Trainers that need to win to get in & know they have a shot at the derby do so, Charismatic (Lukas) needed to win to get in..........Animal Kingdom...........

Only horse going into the derby this year so far (not including tomorrows races) that I think has a chance to win the derby is the undefeated Gemologist.........he will be under rated & good odds & wont be the favorite come derby day, imo of course.


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#21
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:03:18 PM

I think Ever So Lucky runs big in the BG, real big!

It is not Sheppards style to rush a horse into a race like this.  I ould be surprised / shocked if he doesn't hit the board.  I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it close at the wire.

 

HB

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#22
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:04:37 PM
And you can forget 12-1.
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#23
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:07:25 PM
animal kingdom did not need a win and graham motion doesnt train his horses that way. animal kingdom wasnt even confirmed for the kentucky derby until the week of after he worked on the CD track.and if you think baffert sent the horses your referring to out into races to run second your crazy. 
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#24
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:19:07 PM
Baffert removing blinkers and stating that Bodemeister is the speed is a curious duplex.I think Smith is on him to try to ration his speed or even rate him especially now that all the other speed is inside of him.He lost to Creative Cause coming out of a maiden he could be the best colt of this group, and if he wins impressively will help bettors of exotics by clouding the ranking order.
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#25
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:20:21 PM

My question tho is Martin Garcia on sabbatical

who did he piss off?

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