a good week for the newsletter all around last week highlighted by another really big week by gettysports. it's been a tough season overall so hopefully we can finally get some momentum.
let's get right to it.
Miami @ NE -8 missed out on miami at a really nice number against a bad team two weeks ago but fortunately didn't make the same mistake last week and got them at a pretty good number against a horrible team last week. what do we know of miami? they've had two easy covers in a row and played great the last two weeks which coincided with them getting rid of philbin and finally focusing on their running game. on the other hand, those wins were against two of the worst teams in the league. so, still hard to say if they are back to where they should be or just taking advantage of their schedule.
we will find out as their next three are on the road and against strong competition.
hard to bet this game without having any idea if miami is for real or not but i have to say there is value with miami. NE just closed at 7 against the jets at home and are 8 here on a short week. my best guess is miami appears to be around the same as the jets right now and this line should be closer to 7 or 7.5. NE actually didn't play that well last week and didn't cover the early spreads which had that one between 7.5 and 9.
honestly, i have no idea here. fortunately, this is the thursday game so i'm not tempted to play it. it will be interesting to see how miami does in their first difficult matchup post-philbin. if i had to bet it, i'd take the 8, but i don't, so i likely won't.
Detroit @ KC -5.5 detroit went back to their usual selves last week getting an early lead and them blowing it badly. i didn't watch it but apparently stafford got killed which happens when you have a shit OL and your top RB gets 8 carries. detroit did fire some offensive coaches and that should help like it did miami but i think the problems are bigger and involve the layers and their head coach who appears to be useless. that being said, you may see a bounce which often comes after a major shakeup. i actually predicted this line to be 4. 5.5. really isn't much different as few games end on 5.
KC finally put a decent game together although it was at home against landry jones so it wasn't too impressive.
i was ready to give up betting on detroit although i kind of like this line. however, this one is in london and i rarely bet those games. last week was another example of how weird things happen in london. Jax scores 34 and gets a comeback win against a good defense? that kind of thing doesn't happen in the united states.
so, i'm tempted by the points, but hesitate to come back with detroit and the london factor will probably keep me off this one.
Minnesota @ Chicago even minnesota continues to get little respect with the lines, being less than 3 last week and only 4 or so at home the week before and now just even at chicago who has been mostly terrible. i think there is a reason that has to do with their OL and bridgewater not progressing as much as people hoped. but, they have peterson and their defense has played well so they continue to beat the bad teams. chicago is one of those bad teams but i'm not sure we can trust minnesota to keep winning each week, especially on the road.