solid week last week, getty with some winners and while Hugh Jorman Sports was hungover and overslept well past the 1:00 kickoffs, as he's wont to do, people who know HJS, like we do, would have known he'd be all over dallas.
ok, let's get to it.
NYJ @ New England -10 two weeks in a row betting the jets and two losses. should we make it three. in our defense, last week went how we hoped it would. Denver/Manning lacked enthusiasm and the jets hung around and were covering late into the game. i didn't watch it but saw denver was up 7 with just over a minute left and assumed they would just run out he clock for a jets cover. and then Geno Smith happened. what can you do?
but, this is an overreaction. sure, NE has looked great the last two weeks but they are now fully valued, even overvalued, as if they are the NE team of old. i'm not sure they are yet after just two nice wins. but this line scares me. NE has some injuries and is coming off two big wins and is back on a short week. i'm not sure if this is because people assume NE is all the way back or the jets/smith are such a disaster or the thursday night games have been blowouts and have not been kind to the ill-prepared and poorly coached sides, or, likely some combination of the three. but none of those are reasons to take NE at about 2 points more than it should be.
we almost never play the thursday night game and certainly wouldn't take NE at 10. we might, however, look at the jets at 10 or so, although we might also be ready to put the jets on the no play list, perhaps in place of Jax.
Cincy @ Indy -3 we've been looking for a good opportunity to bet against Indy. we feel they are overrated. as good as Luck is, i just don't see this team winning week after week with what should be a below average defense and OL. this looks like a rpetty good opportunity. CIncy started out great and then went downhill after their early bye week, which is often a problem for teams that start out better than expected. but cincy is clearly a better team than they've shown the last two weeks. unless there is a real problem with their defense, we think they are a more complete team than Indy. obviously the luck vs dalton matchup is not favorable at all but the game is much more than QB's. i wish this game as in cincy and the line was around even. but, cincy did start off well beating the shrimps on the road in week one and they are well over .500 on the road in the last couple of years. not afraid to bet on cincy on the road.
not much real analysis in this one. cincy came back down to earth a little but i wouldn't write them off. we still have them as the best team in their division and better than Indy (as long as the luck v dalton matchup doesn't get out of hand). getting them at 3 looks like a good deal and a bit of an overreaction given recent events. likely play here.