The Detroit Tigers just scored a combined 18 runs in a two-game sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers last series to get to 50-37 on the season. I look for that hot hitting to continue today as they take on the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this AL Central series.
The Tigers will be teeing off against Jeremy Guthrie, who has gone 5-7 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.298 WHIP over 18 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts. Guthrie has given up exactly 13 hits in two of his last three starts against Detroit.
Drew Smyly has shown that he is deserving of a spot in Detroit's loaded rotation this year. The left-hander has gone 4-8 with a 3.89 ERA over 81 innings pitched thus far in 2014. Smyly has owned the Royals, going 2-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in four career starts against them. Kansas City is only hitting .256 and scoring 3.5 runs/game against southpaws this season.
Detroit is 7-0 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Detroit is 8-2 in its last 10 road games overall. The Royals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
The Detroit Tigers just scored a combined 18 runs in a two-game sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers last series to get to 50-37 on the season. I look for that hot hitting to continue today as they take on the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this AL Central series.
The Tigers will be teeing off against Jeremy Guthrie, who has gone 5-7 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.298 WHIP over 18 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts. Guthrie has given up exactly 13 hits in two of his last three starts against Detroit.
Drew Smyly has shown that he is deserving of a spot in Detroit's loaded rotation this year. The left-hander has gone 4-8 with a 3.89 ERA over 81 innings pitched thus far in 2014. Smyly has owned the Royals, going 2-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in four career starts against them. Kansas City is only hitting .256 and scoring 3.5 runs/game against southpaws this season.
Detroit is 7-0 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Detroit is 8-2 in its last 10 road games overall. The Royals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
I think this is a great price to back the Orioles at home against the Nationals. I'm well aware of the fact that Washington's Gio Gonzalez hasn't allowed a run in 3 straight starts. Not only is he overdue for a poor outing, Gonzalez has a 7.08 ERA and 1.672 WHIP over 4 interleague starts. You also have to keep in mind that each of his last two starts came against the light hitting Cubs. Baltimore will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who is 4-2 with a solid 3.84 ERA and 1.279 WHIP over 10 home starts.
Key Trends - Chen is 15-5 in his last 20 home starts with a money line of +125 to -125 and 21-7 in his last 28 home starts when the total is 7 to 8.5 runs. Baltimore is 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series and 6-1 in their last 7 following a loss.
I think this is a great price to back the Orioles at home against the Nationals. I'm well aware of the fact that Washington's Gio Gonzalez hasn't allowed a run in 3 straight starts. Not only is he overdue for a poor outing, Gonzalez has a 7.08 ERA and 1.672 WHIP over 4 interleague starts. You also have to keep in mind that each of his last two starts came against the light hitting Cubs. Baltimore will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who is 4-2 with a solid 3.84 ERA and 1.279 WHIP over 10 home starts.
Key Trends - Chen is 15-5 in his last 20 home starts with a money line of +125 to -125 and 21-7 in his last 28 home starts when the total is 7 to 8.5 runs. Baltimore is 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series and 6-1 in their last 7 following a loss.
Any team (BALTIMORE) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts are 57-28 (67%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ORIOLES -108!
Any team (BALTIMORE) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts are 57-28 (67%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ORIOLES -108!
The Angels are showing solid value as a small road favorites against the struggling Rangers. Texas comes in having lost 4-straight and 10 of their last 11 overall. The Rangers will send out Colby Lewis, who is 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.711 WHIP over 8 home starts and has a career 4.04 ERA against the Angels.
Home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL), in July games are just 36-15 against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
The Angles just finished up a lengthy 7-game homestand at 6-1 and there's a strong system supporting a play of Los Angeles in their first game away from home. Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA ANGELS) - after 7 or more consecutive home games, in July games are 67-21 since 1997. That's a 76% system in favor of the Angels. Take Los Angeles.
The Angels are showing solid value as a small road favorites against the struggling Rangers. Texas comes in having lost 4-straight and 10 of their last 11 overall. The Rangers will send out Colby Lewis, who is 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.711 WHIP over 8 home starts and has a career 4.04 ERA against the Angels.
Home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL), in July games are just 36-15 against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
The Angles just finished up a lengthy 7-game homestand at 6-1 and there's a strong system supporting a play of Los Angeles in their first game away from home. Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA ANGELS) - after 7 or more consecutive home games, in July games are 67-21 since 1997. That's a 76% system in favor of the Angels. Take Los Angeles.
You generally don't see totals outside of Colorado actually getting to double-digits but we have one here and the number is completely justified. Both starting pitchers have ERAs of almost six over their L5 starts and things don't figure to improve here with both teams mashing the ball. In fact, the Angels are batting a robust .299 over the last week, the Rangers a healthy .271 and plating just under five runs-per-game over that same time frame. The over is 8-1 in the L9 Texas games with the last four producing a whopping 55 runs. Play the over.
You generally don't see totals outside of Colorado actually getting to double-digits but we have one here and the number is completely justified. Both starting pitchers have ERAs of almost six over their L5 starts and things don't figure to improve here with both teams mashing the ball. In fact, the Angels are batting a robust .299 over the last week, the Rangers a healthy .271 and plating just under five runs-per-game over that same time frame. The over is 8-1 in the L9 Texas games with the last four producing a whopping 55 runs. Play the over.
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