|Luck vs. Calculated Risk
Posted: 1/21/2013 8:49:49 PM
Both usually have a 10% juice on losses.
If you win with luck, the odds should always be 50-50.
If you win with a properly Calculated Risk, the odds should be more than 50-50.
Therein lies the challenge of properly handicapping games.
A novice can look at a toteboard and know exactly who the public has handicapped as their favorites for hitting the board. With any luck, he may win.
An astute handicapper will know how to read the racing forum, determine where the speed is, the closers, the pacers, the hot jockeys, the quality breedings, the recent workouts and almost develop a scenario of how the race may play itself out. This is what separates a novice from a professional.
With the takeout of the handle being 18 to 25% depending on the bets, that novice is going to get beat in the short term and the professional is going to fare better.