Monday NBA Plays

Forum: Penalty Box
Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: Monday NBA Plays
Cyrax PM Cyrax
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Cyrax
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Posted: 1/21/2013 6:56:14 PM
Tonight I'm taking:


Spurs -2  1Q  ( 1 unit ) 

Bulls -.5   1Q  ( 1 unit ) 

Trailblazers  1Q  ( 1 unit )
   

Spurs TT Over 11.5  1st 6 Min.  ( 1 unit ) 


let's see if these team are ready to play today.............
shrimp1958 PM shrimp1958
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:00:45 PM
The 4th bet is insanity......
Kurshka PM Kurshka
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:09:11 PM
Cyrax PM Cyrax
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:11:34 PM
Shrimp - I'm taking a chance that they get hot early , these teams tend to run out of gas in the 2H... it is going to be insane    

Kursh - 
shrimp1958 PM shrimp1958
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:39:00 PM
Damn you won your first 2 plays...
Cyrax PM Cyrax
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:42:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cyrax:

Tonight I'm taking:


Spurs -2  1Q  ( 1 unit )    

Bulls -.5   1Q  ( 1 unit ) 

Trailblazers  1Q  ( 1 unit )
   

Spurs TT Over 11.5  1st 6 Min.  ( 1 unit )      


let's see if these team are ready to play today.............



Shrimp -  you looked surprised  



shrimp1958 PM shrimp1958
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:54:20 PM
Just no idea why you make bets like that,that I think unless you can chart things like that are just guessing...
Cyrax PM Cyrax
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Posted: 1/21/2013 8:12:33 PM
It has to do more with Luck..... even if you do your homework , you can't always predict what will happen..If I do , I would have been a Billionaire already
shrimp1958 PM shrimp1958
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Posted: 1/21/2013 8:17:21 PM
A lock for you tomorrow ....It's Tuesday...
starwink PM starwink
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Posted: 1/21/2013 8:49:49 PM
Luck vs. Calculated Risk

Both usually have a 10% juice on losses.

If you win with luck, the odds should always be 50-50.

If you win with a properly Calculated Risk, the odds should be more than 50-50.

Therein lies the challenge of properly handicapping games.

A novice can look at a toteboard and know exactly who the public has handicapped as their favorites for hitting the board.  With any luck, he may win.

An astute handicapper will know how to read the racing forum, determine where the speed is, the closers, the pacers, the hot jockeys, the quality breedings, the recent workouts and almost develop a scenario of how the race may play itself out.  This is what separates a novice from a professional.

With the takeout of the handle being 18 to 25% depending on the bets, that novice is going to get beat in the short term and the professional is going to fare better. 
Cyrax PM Cyrax
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Posted: 1/21/2013 9:04:02 PM
Star - You can't win if the game is set-up , unless you're on the right side 
starwink PM starwink
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Posted: 1/21/2013 10:57:04 PM
If every game is set up, it all comes down to luck.

I don't believe every game is set up, though.

That would take too much complicity and require too many people to keep their mouth shut.  

Kurshka PM Kurshka
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Posted: 1/21/2013 11:09:32 PM
An astute handicapper will know how to read the racing forum, determine where the speed is, the closers, the pacers, the hot jockeys, the quality breedings, the recent workouts and almost develop a scenario of how the race may play itself out.  This is what separates a novice from a professional.

I love the ponys just no time. I gave Shrimp a nice winner few months back thought I sent it to you also.
Hit a nice DD today. Posted in the horse thread. And you are correct Winks the take out is insane and if you hit a big one the State will tax you.
Kurshka PM Kurshka
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Posted: 1/21/2013 11:18:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by starwink:

If every game is set up, it all comes down to luck.

I don't believe every game is set up, though.

That would take too much complicity and require too many people to keep their mouth shut.  




Very interesting point. It happens but not as much as people think. Seems like evey game somebody is saying fixed. We all know about Daughtry but google the jockey Ron Hansen. They threw him off the San Mateo bridge. Pro players make to much but some strange stuff in European soccer and tennis. Its hard to do it because unless you have a local. Try and bet 50k on sports in Vegas normally they won't take it. Bet it in the casino and they like their chops.  
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