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Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: CFB Week 4 2H System Plays(monitoring)
Codearmani send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#101
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:04:43 PM
is there a thread where the ncaaf plays are posted correctly?? And every game is looked at
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#102
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:05:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by moasis:

Guys another thing you have to realize is that others are looking at different lines.  I'm using the covers scores lines.


Thats not the problem.  Look at my thread and look at the calculations.  Then go to Porkys thread and compare the calculations.  You are subtracting and adding incorrectly.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101424939  My thread

Porkys Thread:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101414922
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#103
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:05:46 PM
Im looking at every game right now.  The plays posted are the only system plays.  Too many games to post them all
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#104
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:05:57 PM
Here is the calculation for the TCU game under.  

Original line was 53.5. Half-time score was 14-0.

53.5 - 14 = 39.5(what the line should be)
The 2nd half line was 23.5.

39.5 - 23.5 = 16.  

Someone please tell me how this is wrong? 
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jaime2309
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#105
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:07:34 PM
The over/unders you are doing correctly.
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#106
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:08:36 PM
dont wanna confuse (just trying to help)>>>but i think Army OVER is a play.
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#107
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:11:41 PM
Well this thread is officially closed.  Follow Orion on his thread.
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#108
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:14:27 PM
Could some explain the calculation for the odds only?

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#109
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:16:41 PM
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#110
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:17:20 PM
Here is an example from porky.

Saturday September 13th
BYU vs UCLA
BYU was -8.5 for the game.
At the half BYU is winning 42-0.
Second half line is BYU -1/2 thus presenting a possible 33 point middle.
If you have BYU in the game -8.5 you could now bet UCLA +1/2 for the second half and have a 33 point middle to hit both bets(Byu wins the game between 9 points and and 42 points).
I belive and have found that 75% of time it won't land in this middle, now you have to just bet the more logical side, is it more likely that BYU wins by 43 points or more or it more likely UCLA comes back to loose by less than 8.5 points?
I make a play on BYU -1/2 for the 2nd half and BYU wins the 2H 17-0 making the play a WINNER!
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#111
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:27:34 PM
Ok this thread is not dead. I was calculating the spread correctly. Let me say this. You don't have to take my word to be exact. I'm just pointing you into the right direction. As far as I know I haven't goofed on a play(no play vs play) but I am human and it is very tough doing so many games at once.  Like I stated before this is a community thread. If I miss a play or haven't posted one then go for it.
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#112
Posted: 9/22/2012 2:32:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by moasis:

Here is an example from porky.

Saturday September 13th
BYU vs UCLA
BYU was -8.5 for the game.
At the half BYU is winning 42-0.
Second half line is BYU -1/2 thus presenting a possible 33 point middle.
If you have BYU in the game -8.5 you could now bet UCLA +1/2 for the second half and have a 33 point middle to hit both bets(Byu wins the game between 9 points and and 42 points).
I belive and have found that 75% of time it won't land in this middle, now you have to just bet the more logical side, is it more likely that BYU wins by 43 points or more or it more likely UCLA comes back to loose by less than 8.5 points?
I make a play on BYU -1/2 for the 2nd half and BYU wins the 2H 17-0 making the play a WINNER!



Moasis - I have been following NJPorky's system since last season and I believe you are correctly calculating the sides. Orion is treating the lines as absolute values and calculating the difference (ex. -8.5 to +7.5 = 1) when it should actually be treated as "real" values accounting for crossing the zero (-8.5 to +7.5 = 16). Key words here are "I believe." if anyone wants to be absolutely sure search some of NJPorky's previous threads and learn how to calculate the 2H lines yourself. It's your money don't trust anyone else with your funds. 

I've been browsing covers for several years now without a username but felt the need to comment on this as I have seen several people trying to implement NJPorky's system. 

Trust whoever you want but understand its your money on the line. BOL bettors. 
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#113
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:05:37 PM
Army 2h over is a win already

-playr101
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#114
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:23:40 PM
Ole Miss -7 

TCU under 23.5 

Good work so far Moasis stick with your gut on your calculations!
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#115
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:29:18 PM
Florida 2H -10 
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#116
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:29:56 PM
Virginia Tech -7 2H 

Once again good work Moasis!
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#117
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:30:47 PM
Is there a play on Ohio ?
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#118
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:33:23 PM
C. Michigan bomb :( -2 ouch
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#119
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:33:43 PM

Can you just post the plays and stop all the arguing?

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#120
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:34:27 PM
Central Michigan -23.5 Over 

Central Michigan +7  but barely
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#121
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:35:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by versailles:

Central Michigan -23.5 Over 

Central Michigan +7  but barely


Correction: Central Michigan was Over 26 = PUSH
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#122
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:35:40 PM
Versailles is Ohio -10 the play?
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#123
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:36:03 PM
Ole Miss -7 
TCU under 23.5 
Central Michigan +7 and Over 27 (Lost both by a point) 

UAB + 14.5 
Virginia Tech -7 

Army/WF Over 28 

5-2 on the day so far YTD 8-2
Not a bad start


 


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#124
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:37:39 PM
Good day so far
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#125
Posted: 9/22/2012 3:38:02 PM
Trying to see if there is a play on the ohio game but 5dimes is moving slow again.  
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