FYI- I did not run these through any type of numbers as I normally do. I obviously need to tweak a few things since we have had an amazing year so far but the last week as shown a 0-3 day, two days of an 8-2 run, and then an 0-5 day. Which is extremely odd to all of a sudden have two 0fers in the same week. Also the first times we had 0fers all year. I will run the numbers with these games just to see, but I don't really trust it right now until a full week of test games gives me results.
FYI- I did not run these through any type of numbers as I normally do. I obviously need to tweak a few things since we have had an amazing year so far but the last week as shown a 0-3 day, two days of an 8-2 run, and then an 0-5 day. Which is extremely odd to all of a sudden have two 0fers in the same week. Also the first times we had 0fers all year. I will run the numbers with these games just to see, but I don't really trust it right now until a full week of test games gives me results.
Here's what I come up with in numbers. I am posting these more as a test than anything, so do as you please with fade or follow. I am not playing any. Really want to hit March Madness hard and have our bookies sweating.
Baylor/Texas: Even though Texas ranks 1st in the nation with blocks (7.6 per gam) and 2nd in the nation with defensive rebounds (26.7 per game) The numbers are focusing on the recent trends of Baylor's scoring ability and favors Baylor by 3 in a game that hits 134 in total points.
Virginia/Syracuse: Numbers show that Syracuse is tough at home when it comes to points given up, points scored, and blocks. Virginia's side is focusing on defensive rebounds and holding opponents to 44 ppg in recent trend. This is saying Virginia wins by 6.5 in a game that hits 114 in total points.
Boston College/VA Tech: A mixed results kind of game where it can go either way. This is favoring Va Tech's ability to play at home vs BC playing on the road in almost all aspects of the game. This shows a Va Tech win by 1.5 in a game that hits 147 in total points.
The mix up is due to recent trends of Va Tech giving up boat loads of points. Which in some cases, it shows a BC win by .5 in a game that goes right around 134 points.
Take these for however you choose. Typing this out helps me track what I am trying to figure out. The game totals for the BC/Va Tech game I'm really struggling to understand why such a difference as they are normally way closer than that.
Good Luck with whatever you do gentlemen, but I would just take these as another angle when figuring your own plays out.
Here's what I come up with in numbers. I am posting these more as a test than anything, so do as you please with fade or follow. I am not playing any. Really want to hit March Madness hard and have our bookies sweating.
Baylor/Texas: Even though Texas ranks 1st in the nation with blocks (7.6 per gam) and 2nd in the nation with defensive rebounds (26.7 per game) The numbers are focusing on the recent trends of Baylor's scoring ability and favors Baylor by 3 in a game that hits 134 in total points.
Virginia/Syracuse: Numbers show that Syracuse is tough at home when it comes to points given up, points scored, and blocks. Virginia's side is focusing on defensive rebounds and holding opponents to 44 ppg in recent trend. This is saying Virginia wins by 6.5 in a game that hits 114 in total points.
Boston College/VA Tech: A mixed results kind of game where it can go either way. This is favoring Va Tech's ability to play at home vs BC playing on the road in almost all aspects of the game. This shows a Va Tech win by 1.5 in a game that hits 147 in total points.
The mix up is due to recent trends of Va Tech giving up boat loads of points. Which in some cases, it shows a BC win by .5 in a game that goes right around 134 points.
Take these for however you choose. Typing this out helps me track what I am trying to figure out. The game totals for the BC/Va Tech game I'm really struggling to understand why such a difference as they are normally way closer than that.
Good Luck with whatever you do gentlemen, but I would just take these as another angle when figuring your own plays out.
Unit: I won't do anything with that because I have a rule I won't bet on or against my team. (Sooners) I suppose I can post the numbers for you though.
Unit: I won't do anything with that because I have a rule I won't bet on or against my team. (Sooners) I suppose I can post the numbers for you though.
Ha, I'm more of a football fan than anything, but I like the way the sooners ball on a court. Heres what I am coming up with for you. It's a mixed results game and depends on how you follow trends or if you follow full seasons:
If you follow seaons:
This is looking at Oklahoma's advantage in almost every aspect of defense. Def Rebs, Off Rebs, steals, blocks, and points against. OU owns all of them against I.S. This is probably why you hear a lot of people saying I.S. has a soft defense and struggles against aggressive teams. Anyways, Based off the trend, this would favor an OU win by 3.5 with the total hitting 143 in points.
If you follow recent trends:
This is looking at the downfall of Oklahoma in all aspects stated above on Defense. Recent trends show that Iowa State actually has the advantage in about 75% of the stats above which would favor an Iowa State win by 2.5 with the total hitting 147.
In my opinion: Take above stats and throw them out the window. This could go either way when you take revenge into play, whats on the line, and so forth. Those trends both favor OU covering the -5.5 spread that I.S. has, but if Iowa State stops their recent trend of giving up over 75 ppg then I think the numbers would show an Iowa State win by 6.5 ish area. This one's up to you...I am not sure what will happen but I hope my trends are right and OU wins
P.S. OU also fouls a lot more on the road than they do at home and Iowa State plays a pretty clean game keeping their fouling at a minimum at home. Just another stat to throw into the mix.
Ha, I'm more of a football fan than anything, but I like the way the sooners ball on a court. Heres what I am coming up with for you. It's a mixed results game and depends on how you follow trends or if you follow full seasons:
If you follow seaons:
This is looking at Oklahoma's advantage in almost every aspect of defense. Def Rebs, Off Rebs, steals, blocks, and points against. OU owns all of them against I.S. This is probably why you hear a lot of people saying I.S. has a soft defense and struggles against aggressive teams. Anyways, Based off the trend, this would favor an OU win by 3.5 with the total hitting 143 in points.
If you follow recent trends:
This is looking at the downfall of Oklahoma in all aspects stated above on Defense. Recent trends show that Iowa State actually has the advantage in about 75% of the stats above which would favor an Iowa State win by 2.5 with the total hitting 147.
In my opinion: Take above stats and throw them out the window. This could go either way when you take revenge into play, whats on the line, and so forth. Those trends both favor OU covering the -5.5 spread that I.S. has, but if Iowa State stops their recent trend of giving up over 75 ppg then I think the numbers would show an Iowa State win by 6.5 ish area. This one's up to you...I am not sure what will happen but I hope my trends are right and OU wins
P.S. OU also fouls a lot more on the road than they do at home and Iowa State plays a pretty clean game keeping their fouling at a minimum at home. Just another stat to throw into the mix.
thanks for your time. im a huge football fan too, and watch most of the games, which probably explains why I only hit 50% in football. in your third post when you say Baylor by 3, do you mean your numbers say Baylor is going to win by 3? or did you mean take Baylor and the 3 points?
thanks for your time. im a huge football fan too, and watch most of the games, which probably explains why I only hit 50% in football. in your third post when you say Baylor by 3, do you mean your numbers say Baylor is going to win by 3? or did you mean take Baylor and the 3 points?
It is saying Baylor wins by 3. That game is purely basing everything on Texas being a let down and Baylor upswing of ppg. In all reality, Texas is FAR better of a defensive team than Baylor, so another reason I don't trust how things have been working out lately. Just too hit and miss for my likely. Rarely would you ever seen an 8-2 run and then drop an 0-5. But, it was a rough day for a ton of cappers on Saturday so who knows. Could have just been the way s.hit happened.
It is saying Baylor wins by 3. That game is purely basing everything on Texas being a let down and Baylor upswing of ppg. In all reality, Texas is FAR better of a defensive team than Baylor, so another reason I don't trust how things have been working out lately. Just too hit and miss for my likely. Rarely would you ever seen an 8-2 run and then drop an 0-5. But, it was a rough day for a ton of cappers on Saturday so who knows. Could have just been the way s.hit happened.
It would suggest that Virginia would win somewhere in the neighborhood of 64-50. But, need to take into consideration that in order for that to happen, Virginia has to hit their shots vs Cuse's style of defense.
It would suggest that Virginia would win somewhere in the neighborhood of 64-50. But, need to take into consideration that in order for that to happen, Virginia has to hit their shots vs Cuse's style of defense.
I'm curious, why do think tourney games are easier to cap or offer more value than having home court during the regular season? For tourney games, do you base team stats on their road #'s?
I'm curious, why do think tourney games are easier to cap or offer more value than having home court during the regular season? For tourney games, do you base team stats on their road #'s?
Frankie- I don't necessarily think it's easier in every aspect, but I look at tourney the same as I do as the beginning of the season. Easier to cap at the beginning and getting much harder towards the end. Saturday is a perfect example of this. Take ULM and UNCW. Both small favorites, both blew out their opponents on their own court by DD. There wasn't one thing to make me put my money on the home team but if you follow my posts, you would see that I basically preach the fact that home underdogs with revenge on their minds are a bettors worst nightmare. Truly impossible to cap when EVERY single thing you look at tells you to take the team that has alreday been proven. Even though both of those teams were in must win mode, the home dog with revenge on their minds destroyed them and put me back in my chair with complete shock.
Tourney games I think you can truly get down to who is the better team, what do their stats show that they will do in a game on a neutral court. No home crowd, no home court to bank on, just basketball against two ranked teams fighting for a win. I try to find stats of games on neutral courts, if I can find them, otherwise I take stats from on the road vs a similar team and try to somehow minus out the home court advantage. knock on wood, but usually the beginning part of march madness are where a lot of bookies I know start sweating. Vegas seems to never give the benefit of the doubt to the underdog in the first rounds or too much benefit and you may see a lot of covers or upsets. We shall see. Finding those games is the tricky part as most will appear to be coin flips after the weak get sorted out.
Sorry for the book I just wrote. Shortest way I could explain it without a lot of detail.
Frankie- I don't necessarily think it's easier in every aspect, but I look at tourney the same as I do as the beginning of the season. Easier to cap at the beginning and getting much harder towards the end. Saturday is a perfect example of this. Take ULM and UNCW. Both small favorites, both blew out their opponents on their own court by DD. There wasn't one thing to make me put my money on the home team but if you follow my posts, you would see that I basically preach the fact that home underdogs with revenge on their minds are a bettors worst nightmare. Truly impossible to cap when EVERY single thing you look at tells you to take the team that has alreday been proven. Even though both of those teams were in must win mode, the home dog with revenge on their minds destroyed them and put me back in my chair with complete shock.
Tourney games I think you can truly get down to who is the better team, what do their stats show that they will do in a game on a neutral court. No home crowd, no home court to bank on, just basketball against two ranked teams fighting for a win. I try to find stats of games on neutral courts, if I can find them, otherwise I take stats from on the road vs a similar team and try to somehow minus out the home court advantage. knock on wood, but usually the beginning part of march madness are where a lot of bookies I know start sweating. Vegas seems to never give the benefit of the doubt to the underdog in the first rounds or too much benefit and you may see a lot of covers or upsets. We shall see. Finding those games is the tricky part as most will appear to be coin flips after the weak get sorted out.
Sorry for the book I just wrote. Shortest way I could explain it without a lot of detail.
Iowa State/Oklahoma: This is favoring Iowa State to be up by 6 at half. Books have Oklahoma +3 at -120 and I.S. at -3 for +100 showing that someone is favoring Oklahoma to keep it within the spread. Stats show I.S. ranks 13th in the nation for 1h points and Oklahoma ranks 26th in the nation. The reasoning for favoring I.S. is the 1h margins that are such a big swing. Oklahoma ranks so high because they average +12.5 @ home but only a +.03 on the road whereas Iowa State holds a +9.3 1h margin at home.
Syracuse/Virginia: Numbers are so close with this, it could be anyones call, but Virginia hold one of the best 1h Margins in Basketball ranked 8th in the nation. Syracuse ranking 37th isnt that much further behind. Both average right around 33 in the 1h for their corresponding games (Syracuse home/Virginia away). Syracuse holds a +7.7 margin at home while Iowa State holds a +7.7 margin on the road. This is going to come down to 1h defense and the numbers are favoring Virginia by almost 3.5.
Va Tech/BC: This is favoring BC by just about .5 due to the recent trends. Vegas has this 1h as a PK and rightfully so. Both teams fall near the bottom of the barrel on 1h rankings. BC ranks 145th and Va Tech 216th. Numbers don't look appealing at all as BC has a -4.1 margin on the road and Va Tech has only a +1.9 margin at home. Even though everything suggest BC has terrible road games, their recent trend has shown a +2.3 margin for 1h and for that, is why they are favored as the PK.
One I would not make a play on personally as everyone will want to jump on Va Tech because of BC's road struggles, but numbers suggest otherwise. Too close for comfort but want to track it.
Iowa State/Oklahoma: This is favoring Iowa State to be up by 6 at half. Books have Oklahoma +3 at -120 and I.S. at -3 for +100 showing that someone is favoring Oklahoma to keep it within the spread. Stats show I.S. ranks 13th in the nation for 1h points and Oklahoma ranks 26th in the nation. The reasoning for favoring I.S. is the 1h margins that are such a big swing. Oklahoma ranks so high because they average +12.5 @ home but only a +.03 on the road whereas Iowa State holds a +9.3 1h margin at home.
Syracuse/Virginia: Numbers are so close with this, it could be anyones call, but Virginia hold one of the best 1h Margins in Basketball ranked 8th in the nation. Syracuse ranking 37th isnt that much further behind. Both average right around 33 in the 1h for their corresponding games (Syracuse home/Virginia away). Syracuse holds a +7.7 margin at home while Iowa State holds a +7.7 margin on the road. This is going to come down to 1h defense and the numbers are favoring Virginia by almost 3.5.
Va Tech/BC: This is favoring BC by just about .5 due to the recent trends. Vegas has this 1h as a PK and rightfully so. Both teams fall near the bottom of the barrel on 1h rankings. BC ranks 145th and Va Tech 216th. Numbers don't look appealing at all as BC has a -4.1 margin on the road and Va Tech has only a +1.9 margin at home. Even though everything suggest BC has terrible road games, their recent trend has shown a +2.3 margin for 1h and for that, is why they are favored as the PK.
One I would not make a play on personally as everyone will want to jump on Va Tech because of BC's road struggles, but numbers suggest otherwise. Too close for comfort but want to track it.
Well Gentlemen, if you would have followed, we would have went 3-0. Glad to see the picks working in our favor today. That Saturday really scared me away. Hopefully this continues and wish I would have played tonight!
Well Gentlemen, if you would have followed, we would have went 3-0. Glad to see the picks working in our favor today. That Saturday really scared me away. Hopefully this continues and wish I would have played tonight!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.