Messages

Forum Index : College Basketball : Messages Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Title Hoops
nropp11
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nropp11
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 7954
Location: United States
#26
Posted: 4/2/2012 2:08:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

"How well does Kansas shoot from the perimeter? That’s how I see it. They aren’t the best perimeter shooting team, but they’re going to have ample opportunities against a team that doesn’t pressure like Kentucky."

What exactly does this mean? How would Kentucky beat good perimeter shooting teams like Florida and Vanderbilt if they give them "ample" opportunities?


Florida shot 6/27, 6/22, and 11/22 in the three meetings. Unlike Kansas, they have no interior defense or offense.

Vandy shot 6/18, 7/18, and 8/21.

Difference between Kansas and teams like Florida/Vandy is simple, and it's defense. Not just pressure, but the ability to block shots and defend the interior well.

GL
quote
jim spector send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jim spector
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 90
Location:
#27
Posted: 4/2/2012 2:13:56 PM
thanks
quote
Quantum_Leap send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Quantum_Leap
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 14521
Location: New York
#28
Posted: 4/2/2012 2:17:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Untrue.

comes down to one player I suppose Whitey < Dieng; but Big East a tougher conference. Def FG % a key indicator (altered shots) and Louisville, Kty (#1) and Kansas (#2) all up there. Davis is the #1 shot blocker (and "alterer" --??).

Do you see the under as a solid play with all these changing arc shots in a dome nonetheless, and truly awesome (short of a better word) defenses?

Esp. if Kentucky gets up big, coupled w/ KU trying 3 ptrs--something they get minimal success from (not their regular offense).

Any thoughts on the under here, sir?

quote
nropp11
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nropp11
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 7954
Location: United States
#29
Posted: 4/2/2012 2:24:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

comes down to one player I suppose Whitey < Dieng; but Big East a tougher conference. Def FG % a key indicator (altered shots) and Louisville, Kty (#1) and Kansas (#2) all up there. Davis is the #1 shot blocker (and "alterer" --??).

Do you see the under as a solid play with all these changing arc shots in a dome nonetheless, and truly awesome (short of a better word) defenses?

Esp. if Kentucky gets up big, coupled w/ KU trying 3 ptrs--something they get minimal success from (not their regular offense).

Any thoughts on the under here, sir?


Think the under does hold value in the dome and with the interior defensive presence, but again, probably comes down to Kansas knocking down shots or not.
quote
andreagassi6969 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andreagassi6969
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 20269
Location: Nevada
#30
Posted: 4/2/2012 2:32:49 PM
quote
composite send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
composite
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3875
Location:
#31
Posted: 4/2/2012 2:32:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Florida shot 6/27, 6/22, and 11/22 in the three meetings. Unlike Kansas, they have no interior defense or offense.

Vandy shot 6/18, 7/18, and 8/21.

Difference between Kansas and teams like Florida/Vandy is simple, and it's defense. Not just pressure, but the ability to block shots and defend the interior well.

GL

It sounds like UK did a great job defensively on great perimeter shooting teams.  So, I'm not sure what you mean that UK doesn't apply pressure D and so KU will have ample perimeter shooting opportunities?

Whatever D that UK uses must be pretty darn effective vs perimeter shooting teams.  Perhaps it's not a full-court press or a ball-hawking D.  But that doesn't mean they poorly defend the perimeter shot.  If so, Florida and Vandy would've had better shooting games.

For the record, I like UK.  KU wants to run and that'll lead to plenty of transition opportunities for UK.  I just don't think KU can keep up.

 

quote
nropp11
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nropp11
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 7954
Location: United States
#32
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:05:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

It sounds like UK did a great job defensively on great perimeter shooting teams.  So, I'm not sure what you mean that UK doesn't apply pressure D and so KU will have ample perimeter shooting opportunities?

Whatever D that UK uses must be pretty darn effective vs perimeter shooting teams.  Perhaps it's not a full-court press or a ball-hawking D.  But that doesn't mean they poorly defend the perimeter shot.  If so, Florida and Vandy would've had better shooting games.

For the record, I like UK.  KU wants to run and that'll lead to plenty of transition opportunities for UK.  I just don't think KU can keep up.

 


Really, there are a few ways to look at it. I don't view Kentucky's defense to be ball-hawking or pressure-heavy. Others do, but I think it's a bit misleading, even on the broadcasting and expert level if you're watching any of their games. I'm sure they'll say it tonight, but that's their opinion, not mine. Good pressure defenses force turnovers, and I alluded to this in the Louisville match-up thread. Calipari coached teams don't force many, in fact the past two years they rank #293 and #297 in doing so. The Kentucky "pressure" is just a myth. The defense looks like they pressure b/c of the size they have. They don't want to guard the perimeter, they would rather force teams to the inside where they can block a shot (his defense has ranked top 10 the last three years in blocked shots).

I guess to answer your question, the perimeter defense is effective against most teams b/c of size, not pressure. Florida brings in 5'8, 6'2, 6'3, of course they're going to struggle against 6'2, 6'7, 6'8 and whomever Kentucky throws out there. What Kentucky lacks in pressure, they make up for in size (#1 shot blocking team in the country). 

The difference between Florida and Kansas is pretty large in terms of motion offense. One team shoots the three a ton without getting the ball to the interior (Florida), and the other hammers the ball in the paint, and doesn't shoot as many three's (Kansas). Which goes back to the initial point, and that's the fact that I expect Kansas to do a healthy does of at least attempting shots from the perimeter. They can go inside, but they aren't going to be able to focus on scoring there, and the offense allows the perimeter guys to re-adjust for those open jump-shots against no pressure. In terms of size, 6'3, 6'4, 6'5, and they get a bit bigger when a few more guards come off the bench.

Really a tough game. Can probably make arguments on both sides, just think the game comes down to how well (and often) Kansas looks to get points from the perimeter.

GL
quote
composite send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
composite
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 3875
Location:
#33
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:06:24 PM

Looking @ the Lville game, it  looked like Lville kept it close despite shooting 37% while UK shot 57% b/c of offensive rebounding.  They shot 20 more times than UK.

KU doesn't seem as strong on the boards as Louisville.

quote
222bad send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
222bad
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 10863
Location: United States
#34
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:23:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Looking @ the Lville game, it  looked like Lville kept it close despite shooting 37% while UK shot 57% b/c of offensive rebounding.  They shot 20 more times than UK.

KU doesn't seem as strong on the boards as Louisville.

    Actually just the opposite.  Louisville had the large edge in offensive rebounds, UK's high percentage was just that, high percentage shots, and more of them. The scoring difference was largely from the foul line.  Louisville's advantage on their offensive glass was by design as the Cats didn't want to allow for easy transition scoring and instead of committing to crashing the glass, they got back on defense. Louisville shot a a low percentage because they didn't make as many shots, and with 13 shots blocked that reduced their shooting percentages after those extra offensive rebounds.   BOL
quote
PizzaBoyRick send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
PizzaBoyRick
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 980
Location:
#35
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:28:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Also have to point out here that Davis is finally going up against someone who blocks shots better than he does in Withey.


Withey will be in foul trouble quick, he is too slow of foot to keep up with Davis.
quote
TheReignman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheReignman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 1871
Location: Canada
#36
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:29:33 PM
 great analysis great picks much appreciated 
quote
Quantum_Leap send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Quantum_Leap
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 14521
Location: New York
#37
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:45:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Really, there are a few ways to look at it. I don't view Kentucky's defense to be ball-hawking or pressure-heavy. Others do, but I think it's a bit misleading, even on the broadcasting and expert level if you're watching any of their games. I'm sure they'll say it tonight, but that's their opinion, not mine. Good pressure defenses force turnovers, and I alluded to this in the Louisville match-up thread. Calipari coached teams don't force many, in fact the past two years they rank #293 and #297 in doing so. The Kentucky "pressure" is just a myth. The defense looks like they pressure b/c of the size they have. They don't want to guard the perimeter, they would rather force teams to the inside where they can block a shot (his defense has ranked top 10 the last three years in blocked shots).

I guess to answer your question, the perimeter defense is effective against most teams b/c of size, not pressure. Florida brings in 5'8, 6'2, 6'3, of course they're going to struggle against 6'2, 6'7, 6'8 and whomever Kentucky throws out there. What Kentucky lacks in pressure, they make up for in size (#1 shot blocking team in the country). 

The difference between Florida and Kansas is pretty large in terms of motion offense. One team shoots the three a ton without getting the ball to the interior (Florida), and the other hammers the ball in the paint, and doesn't shoot as many three's (Kansas). Which goes back to the initial point, and that's the fact that I expect Kansas to do a healthy does of at least attempting shots from the perimeter. They can go inside, but they aren't going to be able to focus on scoring there, and the offense allows the perimeter guys to re-adjust for those open jump-shots against no pressure. In terms of size, 6'3, 6'4, 6'5, and they get a bit bigger when a few more guards come off the bench.

Really a tough game. Can probably make arguments on both sides, just think the game comes down to how well (and often) Kansas looks to get points from the perimeter.

GL

Tyshawn Taylor went from 50 3 pt shots last yr, to 150+ this year. Therefore safe to say, the game depends on him. 35% from the arc...70% from the line. He will need a 15+ pt game. Might be a good prop, knowing they will ask him to shoot it, and whether behind a lot, or in a tight game, he gets the rock out there and free reigns.

quote
DOVJAK send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
DOVJAK
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 25329
Location: Pennsylvania
#38
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:03:34 PM
quote
Quantum_Leap send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Quantum_Leap
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 14521
Location: New York
#39
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:07:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Tyshawn Taylor went from 50 3 pt shots last yr, to 150+ this year. Therefore safe to say, the game depends on him. 35% from the arc...70% from the line. He will need a 15+ pt game. Might be a good prop, knowing they will ask him to shoot it, and whether behind a lot, or in a tight game, he gets the rock out there and free reigns.

Just looked at his Tournament stats. Yikes, he's 0 for 20 from 3 pt range. He hasn't hit even one. He was 0-5 vs UNC (not known for defending the perimeter). 0-6 vs NC State. How in the heck will he even get one in there vs Kentucky I do not know.

The o/u is 1.5 for his prop. Over 1.5 3 ptrs = +120. I think the under might be worth a look. Can he hit 2 3 ptrs vs Kentucky when he hasnt hit one yet?

quote
krh7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
krh7
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 18
Location:
#40
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:08:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Tyshawn Taylor went from 50 3 pt shots last yr, to 150+ this year. Therefore safe to say, the game depends on him. 35% from the arc...70% from the line. He will need a 15+ pt game. Might be a good prop, knowing they will ask him to shoot it, and whether behind a lot, or in a tight game, he gets the rock out there and free reigns.


interesting idea.  5dimes has taylor over 14.5 pts at -125, and over 1.5 3 pointers at +120.
quote
rarejerbear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
rarejerbear
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 60
Location: Minnesota
#41
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:17:07 PM
   Very nice write-ups by all of you guys but what NRopp11 hasn't talked about is what happens if Ky doesn't make THEIR shots. Bill Self and his Jayhawks know, I'm sure, how difficult it can be to score against Ky in the half court offense, so it may be that Kansas will try and take advantage of fastbreak opportunities off missed shots before Ky can set up their defense. In the 1st half against North Carolina, Kansas fast breaked often and it wasn't until the 2nd half that Kansas slowed the game down and won going away.

   My point is is Kansas can play either style, slow or fast, and tonight, at least in the 1st half,  the assumption cannot be made that Kansas won't try and run on Ky. If the trackmeet style doesn't work, they'll then have to play a half-court game and will have to find a way to make perimeter shots, as NRopp has talked about. This probably would not favor the Jayhawks as they are only making 41.4% of all their shots and have made only 19 of 79 three point attempts since the big dance started five games ago. It would be very surprising to see them, all of a sudden, start making threes tonight in a Dome against the No. 1 team in the country.

   In the end, I agree with NRopp, this is a tough game to call so maybe the best strategy is to watch the 1st half with little or no money on it and then put in a significant 2nd half bet.

quote
nropp11
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nropp11
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 7954
Location: United States
#42
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:18:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Just looked at his Tournament stats. Yikes, he's 0 for 20 from 3 pt range. He hasn't hit even one. He was 0-5 vs UNC (not known for defending the perimeter). 0-6 vs NC State. How in the heck will he even get one in there vs Kentucky I do not know.

The o/u is 1.5 for his prop. Over 1.5 3 ptrs = +120. I think the under might be worth a look. Can he hit 2 3 ptrs vs Kentucky when he hasnt hit one yet?


Kid hasn't made a three in a dome in his life.

Against the scheme as I alluded to in the analysis, Kansas was 26% from beyond the arc as a team. In those 11 contest prior to the tourney, Taylor was 19/48 in those games (39.5%).

Since the tourney has started, he's 0-15 against "no-pressure teams", so that would make him 19/63 (30%).

Like the idea, think it might hold value, but I also think this might be a case of him getting 5+ attempts. He's taken 5+ in nine of the fourteen games he's played against "no-pressure" teams. And might be a case if they're down early where he needs to get a few more attempts in a comeback-attempt.

GL
quote
KansasCityEarl send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KansasCityEarl
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 512
Location: Missouri
#43
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:24:35 PM
Kentucky will do what Purdue did.....BOX OUT ROBINSON....the game will be close, so take the points .....with a small wager and enjoy the game........
quote
motorcitymama send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
motorcitymama
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 2700
Location: Colorado
#44
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:33:47 PM
Thanks for sharing for your expert analysis with us this year.
You are excellent at what you do.
quote
ZonaCats send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ZonaCats
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 3600
Location: United States
#45
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:47:55 PM
UK's defense is all about forcing contested shots which they have done all season/tourney. 

The angle i've narrowed this matchup down to is not what KU will be able to do but what UK will or won't be able to do.

And that's hit from 3. If UK hit's 40% or higher from 3, they win and cover. The only clear advantage UK has over KU is 3 pt offense vs 3 pt defense. 

And we all know 3 pt defense is a mirage. So it comes down to can UK hit 3's? If so, they win big. If not, will be close and could potentially lose. 

Also, based on halftime splits, am strongly leaning towards playing UK 1H and KU 2H. 
quote
DirtNap
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DirtNap
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 333
Location:
#46
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:50:55 PM
feel like Kentucky has too much talent for Kansas to hang close in the 1stH...take the Wildcats 1stH and parlay it with the 1H over for an easy profit...then you can enjoy the 2ndH. No answer for AD...period on both ends of the floor.
quote
sg004591 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sg004591
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 3406
Location: Canada
#47
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:51:08 PM
Hi Neil,

Just want to personally thank you for all the insights and what appears to be an endless effort of research.....I have a long way to go to get to a level such as this, and can honestly say I never will, since I just don't have that kind of bandwidth to spare.

But I do want to say thanks for all your efforts despite some of the lurkers who try to belittle your efforts at times....a winning season cannot be challenged .....ever!!!

Hope to see you back next season.

All the best

quote
waynechung send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
waynechung
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 362
Location:
#48
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:51:41 PM
thanks for the insight and thanks for not forcing a play,so many people will load up on this game tonight,which as you've stated offers so little in line value. ps-GUYS,LISTEN TO BROTHER ROOP,BET YOU 25 OR 50 BUCKS AND JUST CHILL AND REALLY ENJOY THE GAME-better spots will come along,patience young jedi's !!!!
quote
VietBlonde send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
VietBlonde
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 681
Location: California
#49
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:52:10 PM

nropp11,

THANK YOU for a wondering season and for sharing on covers. 

Greatly Appreciated and Hope all is well!!!

quote
capskip
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capskip
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 23805
Location: Florida
#50
Posted: 4/2/2012 4:56:45 PM
Thanks nropp for all the great write-ups,and information on college baskets.Hope to see you on covers before next season.If not have a great summer......
quote
Forum Index : College Basketball : Messages Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.