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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: CBI Final
SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SettleDownSpaz
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#1
Posted: 3/30/2012 10:14:17 AM

I made mention of the oddsmakers at work when line setting the unique three game series of the CBI Finals.  In that post, I leaned to Pitt first half and Pitt full game based on some amateur line analysis.  I stayed away from Pitt full game because let's be honest, who wants to lay near DD on Pitt, but hit Pitt first half. 

A quick recap..

Game 1 - Pitt opens at +1, which looking back and given Brock Motum was definitely out, doesn't make much sense.  The public saw weakness in the line and promptly helped pushed this as high as Pitt -2.5.  That backfired as Wazzou took home the cash.

Game 2 - Line opens at Pitt -10, which is basically in line with the closing Game 1 line of -2.5, but well off from the Game 1 opening line of Pitt +1.  What changed?  Nothing.  Motum was still out.  The public saw weakness in this line and promtly helped drive it down.  That play worked as Wazzou covered.

Game 3 - Opens at Pitt -8, which is 2 pts of Game 2's opening line and about 1-1.5 below the closing line.  What has changed?  Ashton Gibbs status seems to be up in the air, but I don't see him ruled out as of yet.  The line is now down to 7.5 and I bet we see 7 at some point.  Interestingly enough, the -7 would be somewhat in line with the Game 1 opening line of Pitt +1 when you adjust for home court. 

My sense is the public sees weakness in the Pitt line again, both with or without Gibbs.  Washington won game 1 and covered Game 2.  Public sentiment likely feels they have oddsmakers on the run. We all know that is never true.  When I look back, I think Pitt -1.5 was the appriopriate Game 1 line, which means tonight's line would be Pitt -8.5/9 when you adjust for home court. Waiting to hear more on Gibbs, but laying 7 sure seems like a discount to the going market rate.

 

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2dawgnation2
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#2
Posted: 3/30/2012 10:45:51 AM
So you believe there is a 7-7.5 point adjustment via home court advantage?  Wash St. has already traveled, played, and made all necessary adjustments which I think waters down a little of the "home court advantage" and I think its fair to say they will be a popular play tonight considering they have already beaten Pitt at home, lost to them in the closing minutes by a slim margin (4 pts courtesy of ft's) on the road.  I found it odd it opened at -8 considering all of this.  Especially the recent history and both teams rosters seem unchanged (I'm reading Gibbs is out).  This looks like an opening line everyone will feel "Vegas screwed up" and jump on the team that has won and covered the closing line in the first two of a three game series.

I'm on Pitt -7.5 for this one.
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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 3/30/2012 10:57:25 AM

2dawg - I usually settle in on anywhere between 6 and 8 points for home court adjustment.  This CBI final is unique because as you note Wazzou has already landed, played and settled in to Pitt.  The court advantage and road shooting woes still exist, so from a line perspective, I think the 6, 7, or 8 is warranted.  I'm in the same camp as you in that I think Wazzou will seem attractive.  If Gibbs is ruled out even more so, which hopefully will take this number down even further.  Have to believe Gibbs plays, in what will be his final game for Pitt.

 

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2dawgnation2
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#4
Posted: 3/30/2012 11:13:33 AM
Reason I comment on the line adjustment is several predictive models, such as Sagarin's, only uses a 4 point home court adjustment.  As you already noted, its a different setting all together being this isn't a conference foe and teams/fans often have mixed emotions concerning these undercard tourneys for the near misses in the NCAA tourney.  With all that being said, and of course in hand with their being acclimated to the settings in Pitt, I think this opening line is a stretch.  AS expected it has moved, but only 0.5 points (public money) and at the two sportsbooks I use its at -8 still.  I think we will see a generous number of threads pumping up Wash St. before tip tonight.  I'm already on Pitt and may increase before that time.  Good luck with your plays!
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The.Ice.Man send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 3/30/2012 1:10:13 PM
SPAZ, 2dawg ,  Not disagreeing with any of the above....... only will add that every angle possible as far as setting the line, where the money will come in from and back then back the other way .....was picked apart 100 times over..... "they" are always a step ahead.    
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#6
Posted: 3/30/2012 1:57:23 PM
Any ideas on the total?  I like the under - shooting has deteriorated since both teams combined for 19 3's in the first game, and the totals for the last 3 halves have been 60, 49, and 61.  Pace has been and will continue to be slow.  Gibbs out or playing hurt should make it harder for pitt to score.  If pitt covers, ft's at the end shouldn't be a big deal.  I'll take the under and take my chances that the shooting doesn't improve.  GL
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2dawgnation2
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#7
Posted: 3/30/2012 3:28:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The.Ice.Man:

SPAZ, 2dawg ,  Not disagreeing with any of the above....... only will add that every angle possible as far as setting the line, where the money will come in from and back then back the other way .....was picked apart 100 times over..... "they" are always a step ahead.    

In a roundabout way IceMan, I am only agreeing with you.  There is absolutely nothing that hasn't-wasn't brought to the table and provided data that would be incorporated into the line.  I am one of those guys that says when there is a line that looks "too good to be true" it more than likely is.  I can't say I believe in trap lines, but I do believe there are lines that beg for public support and this in my eyes is one of them.  Though not always is this matter of fact, but in this case it seems fairly obvious that with a number set at 8 is going to get some attention and seem very attractive.  Look at our small little sample poll in this very forum.  The odds are heavily in support of Wash St. and imo will only continue to grow.  There are no "giimmes" and the creed in vegas is to set lines to get equal action...this one stinks to me and doesn't fit that mold.  I have to play Pitt -8 and it may blow up in my face but this is one that fits my style of plays.
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#8
Posted: 3/30/2012 3:30:23 PM
NO opinion on the total.  Just a feeling it doesn't fall into the same format the first two games fell.
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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 3/30/2012 3:38:33 PM

IceMan - I agree with you there, but also think there is an element of oddsmakers dangling the line a little further in one direction. If it makes people sit on the fence and waver, they've done their job. 

lbreno - I'm waiting for more word on Gibbs before I think about the total

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#10
Posted: 3/30/2012 3:50:54 PM
vegasinsider has gibbs OUT
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The.Ice.Man send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#11
Posted: 3/30/2012 4:09:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 2dawgnation2:


In a roundabout way IceMan, I am only agreeing with you.  There is absolutely nothing that hasn't-wasn't brought to the table and provided data that would be incorporated into the line.  I am one of those guys that says when there is a line that looks "too good to be true" it more than likely is.  I can't say I believe in trap lines, but I do believe there are lines that beg for public support and this in my eyes is one of them.  Though not always is this matter of fact, but in this case it seems fairly obvious that with a number set at 8 is going to get some attention and seem very attractive.  Look at our small little sample poll in this very forum.  The odds are heavily in support of Wash St. and imo will only continue to grow.  There are no "giimmes" and the creed in vegas is to set lines to get equal action...this one stinks to me and doesn't fit that mold.  I have to play Pitt -8 and it may blow up in my face but this is one that fits my style of plays.

  Like I said..... most times then not every move has been figured in, then torn apart and put back together again. They miss every once in a while, but not often specially with smaller game schedule. With it all winding down, less games, they really can put time into each game, unlike a Sat. in Nov. Maybe they grab public money taking the points ?, knowing that big sharp money is coming on fav. late beforet tip off ? ...who knows besides them !... Scores and odds is at 79 % on dog. Line not not moving ....yet !..... gave back a nice chunk last night on Tubby and my Gophers (along with most on here i think)...would like it back before big show tomorrow thank you , but not be the game to roll it on....  but ?....playing with house money so ?......dont play mlb, and it is a long long time from now till cfb.....Friday  !  Happy hour !  who knows !  got a few hours to flip that bottle cap right  !   G.L. to all. 

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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#12
Posted: 3/30/2012 5:21:09 PM

Washington State / Pittsburgh OVER 127 (10 units to win 9.52)

Pittsburgh -7 (8.4 units to win 8)

 

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The.Ice.Man send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 3/30/2012 5:26:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:

Washington State / Pittsburgh OVER 127 (10 units to win 9.52)

Pittsburgh -7 (8.4 units to win 8)

 

 

 

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222bad send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 3/30/2012 5:33:53 PM
     Against you on the side Spaz, and not liking it one bit.  Originally leaned under, but the more I look and think about the game, the extra time the kids have had to rest from the travel, and what's at stake, joining you on the over.  12 - 2 last 14 on totals so I'm probably do for regression.  That's another reason I faded my original lean, can't believe I'll go 13 - 2.  Hopefully I'm not selling myself short and doubting my leans, but something tells me both teams shoot well enough to get this over for us.  BOL,  tonight and this weekend.
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#15
Posted: 3/30/2012 9:56:29 PM

222bad - nice work my friend.

Tough loss on Pitt.  They had that cover and Wazzou kept coming and kept fouling.  Tough one to lose, but 10-2 on the week.  Looking to roll all of the profit into the Final Four tomorrow.

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