Posted: 3/30/2012 10:14:17 AM
I made mention of the oddsmakers at work when line setting the unique three game series of the CBI Finals. In that post, I leaned to Pitt first half and Pitt full game based on some amateur line analysis. I stayed away from Pitt full game because let's be honest, who wants to lay near DD on Pitt, but hit Pitt first half.
A quick recap..
Game 1 - Pitt opens at +1, which looking back and given Brock Motum was definitely out, doesn't make much sense. The public saw weakness in the line and promptly helped pushed this as high as Pitt -2.5. That backfired as Wazzou took home the cash.
Game 2 - Line opens at Pitt -10, which is basically in line with the closing Game 1 line of -2.5, but well off from the Game 1 opening line of Pitt +1. What changed? Nothing. Motum was still out. The public saw weakness in this line and promtly helped drive it down. That play worked as Wazzou covered.
Game 3 - Opens at Pitt -8, which is 2 pts of Game 2's opening line and about 1-1.5 below the closing line. What has changed? Ashton Gibbs status seems to be up in the air, but I don't see him ruled out as of yet. The line is now down to 7.5 and I bet we see 7 at some point. Interestingly enough, the -7 would be somewhat in line with the Game 1 opening line of Pitt +1 when you adjust for home court.
My sense is the public sees weakness in the Pitt line again, both with or without Gibbs. Washington won game 1 and covered Game 2. Public sentiment likely feels they have oddsmakers on the run. We all know that is never true. When I look back, I think Pitt -1.5 was the appriopriate Game 1 line, which means tonight's line would be Pitt -8.5/9 when you adjust for home court. Waiting to hear more on Gibbs, but laying 7 sure seems like a discount to the going market rate.