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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: BrianL's NCAA Tourney Picks...
BrianLaverty send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
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#1
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:38:49 PM
Got my behind kicked on straight plays in the conference tourneys, but won alot on futures so it almost evens out.

NCAA Tourney is here and I will be posting all my plays in this thread,.

Good luck everyone!!!  For the tournament, my units= $1000

Iona +2 (Heritage)  (Risking 1.08 Units to win 1)
Iona ML +115 (Heritage)  (Risking 0.5 Units to win 0.57)


First of all, I don't think BYU even belongs in the tournament.  They beat up on bad teams at home and haven't proven anything all year away from home.  Virginia Tech, Oregon and Gonzaga (1 out of 3) are there only 3 wins vs. top 100 opponents.  They are a team that relies on there offense, and its not nearly as efficient as they were with Jimmer and co. last year. 

For the actual matchup, they don't match up well with Iona.  Iona plays the same kind of uptempo offense that BYU plays, except that they do it much better.  BYU just doesn't matchup well with teams who can outrun them, and they are not nearly athletic as Iona.   Teams with good point guards have killed BYU all year and Machado is one of the best in the country....  The style of play will definitely favor Iona.

As for Iona, I felt that they didn't have much of a chance against a team that will slow the tempo down and make them play a halfcourt game.  BYU is not that at all, and Iona got very lucky with the matchup given.  And if BYU tries to play the weak zone that sometimes switch to, Iona can easily shoot them out of it with 40% 3-point shooting.  There's just not much that I can see BYU doing to slow the pace down, and overall, I feel that Iona will be able to prevail as the much more athletic team.


South Florida +2.5 (Heritage) (Risking 1.08 Units to win 1)

Just like the first game, this matchup definitely favors the underdog.  South Florida is not a pretty team... they are boring, they don't score and they look to play as little amount of possessions as possible.   California on the other hand plays much more uptempo and looks to shoot on the first good shot.  There defense is solid, but its all predicated on how the offense is doing.

South Florida overall is a terrible matchup for Cal.   All year they have beat up on lazy defenses and struggled against the good defensive teams like Colorado, UNLV, Missouri and San Diego State.  USF defense will drive the Bears offense crazy and they are gonna struggle to get to 50.  South Florida on the other hand has faced tough defenses all season in the Big East... They will be prepared for a Cal team that feasted on horrible offensive teams in the Pac-12 like USC and Utah.

Overall, the physical defense of USF will be too much to overcome for Cal while USF will score just enough like they have all season.






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#2
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:39:36 PM
Southern Mississippi/Kansas State Over 134 (Heritage) (Risking 2.2 Units to win 2)

Biggest play of the first round so far. And its all predicated on the way that both teams play aggressively on both offense and defense. 

Kansas State plays a very aggressive man to man pressure defense. They don't give you any space, and as a result of this, they are called for a very high amount of fouls. They have a defensive FTA/FGA % of 41.6%, which is 274th in the country. As aggressive as there defense is, there offense is right there with it. They are taking almost 43% as many FTA as they do FGA (35th in the country) While they do only hit 66% of there FTs, they are averaging close to 25 FT attempts per game, which is always good for an over.

On the other side is USM, a team that is very similar to the way Kansas State plays. They play the same kind of aggressive man to man defense that K-State plays.....They force turnovers, but they also commit alot of fouls. FTA/FGA ratio on defense is 39.6, which is also in the bottom third in the country. On top of this, they have a very high FTA/FGA ratio on offense (40.3%, which is 72nd), so they play a very aggressive attacking style of offense. They are also averaging 23 FTA per game, and they hit 72% of them. 

While the actual speed of play won't be that of BYU/Iona, neither team exactly walks it up the floor, and it won't surprise me to see close to 70 possessions for each team. Both teams will be in the bonus early though, and I won't be surprised to see 60+ FTA. Referees should have a fun time officiating this game..... I think it goes over faily easily.


Ohio State -17.5 (Heritage) (Risking 1.08 Units to win 1)

Not buying into Loyola Maryland at all in this spot against Ohio State. The pressure defense will wear down and rattle teams in the MAAC, but against a team like Ohio State, who doesn't panic and doesn't turn the ball over, the press will be worn down. 

I believe that for a 15 or 16 seed to compete with the top teams, they have to be able to hit the 3 and slow the opposition down to get momentum. In this case, Loyola Maryland struggles big time with the outside shot (34.1% with only 27% of there shots being 3s), and they will have no answer inside for Sullinger. It was a great run that no one expected before the season, but I see Ohio State rolling by 25+

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#3
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:39:46 PM
Murray State -4 (Heritage) (Risking 1.62 Units to win 1.50)

Colorado State is the perfect example of why the bubble was so soft this year. They clearly found a way to manipulate the RPI, and they won the games they had to win at home. If you look at the overall resume, they had 6 wins all year away from home and none of them were worth even looking at... #192 SMU, #247 Northern Colorado, #140 UTEP, #193 Jacksonville State, #187 Air Force, and #146 TCU. They struggle to play there game, and got lit up on defense all year when they weren't in Colorado. As a team, they don't do anything great except for hit the 3. They play a very weak and passive man to man, and they are right in the middle of the pack when it comes to tempo. Typically, they let there opponent play whatever game they want to.

And they got matched up with a team who is just a horrible match for them. Murray State has been a terrific story all year....Not even expected to win the OVC, they go on to win 30 games and get a #1 seed. They play a fun style of basketball, and there defense is strong enough to drive some of the top teams crazy. 

Colorado State just can not match up with a team like this on a neutral floor that will not allow open 3-point attempts. Murray State will play there game and strive in whatever situation they have had to adopt to, which has been evident by the fact that they are giving up just 62.1 ppg in 17 games away from home, all of which have been won by them. As much as people seem to think that Murray State's season was a fluke, they will blowout an overrated Colorado State team.
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#4
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:40:08 PM
will be adding more as I see them.
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#5
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:49:20 PM
I like them all but South Florida. I think Cal will hammer SFla
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#6
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:58:51 PM
I love south florida but I am on BYU.  I think, bad as it may be, this is going to be one of the better defenses that Iona has faced all year.
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#7
Posted: 3/13/2012 6:00:33 PM
Best of Luck 
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#8
Posted: 3/13/2012 6:04:21 PM
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#9
Posted: 3/13/2012 6:07:30 PM
Hey with you on USF, how come I'm not seeing PC anywhere in this bracket???
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#10
Posted: 3/13/2012 6:50:12 PM
gl Brian.
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#11
Posted: 3/13/2012 7:37:35 PM
UNLV -5.5 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.05 Units to win 1)

UNLV is a team that loves to run and gun. They kill teams on the break, and thats really there #1 strength. The teams that have been able to slow them down have suffocated there halfcourt offense and didn't allow them to get on the run. While Colorado does play above average defense, they are not going to be able to stop them in a halfcourt game because its not the game that they are interested in playing. As much as UNLV struggles with the halfcourt, Colorado is even worse.

In a game that is expected to exceed 70 possessions, UNLV should dominate this one. Colorado had a great run in the Pac-12, but they have not beaten anyone with even close to the firepower that UNLV has. UNLV should breeze easily.
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#12
Posted: 3/14/2012 3:05:44 PM
Adding;  Marquette -6 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.57 Units to win 1.50)

We all saw what BYU did in the 2nd half last night.  Next, they have to face a similar team in Marquette.  Iona had one huge weakness all year and that was that they couldn't play in a halfcourt game.  Somehow, it clicked in the 2nd half that BYU has no chance against them uptempo so they slowed it to a halt and effectively shut down the powerhouse offense.  When Marquette runs, they can run and score with the best of them... not much of a change here, and BYU has NO chance in a fullcourt game with Marquette.  The problem is, Marquette is an all around team and can't be stopped by playing halfcourt.   It doesn't matter what kind of defense is being played, Marquette has a very efficient offense.  

BYU had the comeback of a lifetime on Tuesday night, but it will come to a crashing halt tomorrow as BYU will have NO answer for the Marquette offense this time around.  I can see Marquette winning by 15+ against a team that is just out of there level.
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#13
Posted: 3/15/2012 1:29:50 AM
Record: 1-1, -0.58 Units

Interesting first two days.... Should be 2-0, but really feel like I had the right analysis on both games.  California proved why Pac-12 really should have only had one team in.  Gonna add Friday games because I will be away til Friday night......


-  Lehigh +12.5 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.05 Units to win 1)
-  Lehigh ML +700 (5Dimes) (Risking 0.25 Units to win 1.75)

When doing research last week, I penciled in Lehigh as a team that I was going to bet in the first round no matter who they play as long as they were 10+ point dogs.  Love the team they end up matching up with as Duke is probably the most beatable of the #2 seeds.

As much as I have stated in the past that it is crucial for the lower seeds to hit the 3, this isn't necessarily the case with Lehigh.  They score by holding to the ball and not turning it over, not forcing anything and giving McCollum the ball.   Not only do they not turn the ball over, but they hit there FTs at a rate that you very rarely see lower seeds do.   77.4% is 4th in the country, and they do manage to get there more then 25 times per game.  Getting free points at the line is huge, and that only will keep them in the game.

Lehigh is has definitely battle tested this year, and they have yet to lose a game by more then 9 points.  Losing by just 9 on the road at Iowa State, and again by just 9 to Michigan State while scoring 81 points on the road shows just how good this offense and how well they can compete in difficult environments.      I love there competitiveness and really feel like Duke a difficult time winning, nevermind winning by 13+ points.

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#14
Posted: 3/15/2012 1:55:42 AM
Adding:

- Saint Louis +3.5 (5Dimes) (Risking 1.05 Units to win)

Hate to be repetitive, but these matches are not necessarily about overall talent, but how you match up with the opposing team.  The 1st and 2nd halves of the Iona/BYU game showed exactly why some teams who are uptempo cannot play a halfcourt game, and what happens to these offenses once they are forced to limit the possessions.

If you look at the matchups in this one, Memphis is obviously the more talented team but this matchup 100% favors St. Louis.   Memphis is an attacking team who does most of there best work on the fastbreak and really seem to struggle against teams that force them into a halfcourt game.   St. Louis will play very suffocating defense, and will completely slow the game down on offense.   

They both have great defenses, but which teams offense will be more comfortable in the halfcourt sets?  It will obviously be St. Louis, and they will lure an aggressive Memphis team into unforced errors, and rushed shots.  In games that had 63 or less possessions, Memphis had a record of just 5-3 while SLU went 12-4 in games with 63 or less possessions including 7-0 in games that had 60 possessions or less.
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#15
Posted: 3/15/2012 2:22:49 AM
Might be a few more tomorrow for Friday's games... if not, then GL everyone....
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#16
Posted: 3/15/2012 2:37:30 AM
Like your picks, GL! 
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#17
Posted: 3/15/2012 11:45:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shadow300z:

Like your picks, GL! 

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#18
Posted: 3/15/2012 11:50:07 AM
Adding:

Kentucky to win NCAA +265 (5Dimes) (Risking 2 Units to win 5.3 Units)


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#19
Posted: 3/15/2012 12:59:33 PM
So much for k state going over...what a garbage start for both teams...over is toast bro...smh as I tailed you on your biggest play...
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#20
Posted: 3/15/2012 1:06:09 PM
Its very early.
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#21
Posted: 3/15/2012 1:14:44 PM
Love the Lehigh bet, I haven't played it yet 'cuz I think it will still get bet up, but my thoughts were the exact same as yours, meaning I was gonna blind bet them in their first game.  

With ya' on Marquette today too, great fade of a team off a huge comeback!
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#22
Posted: 3/15/2012 2:58:41 PM
Record: 2-1-1  (+0.92 Units)

Murray State 
Kansas State Over 

I'll take the push on the KSU over, but it should have flown over if it wasn't for an almost 5 minute scoring drought in the first half.   Game played exactly like I thought it would in the 2nd half with 37 FTs... but only 14 FTs in the first half and way too many jumpshots.

Colorado State showed why they didn't really belong in the field....

Feel like I've had a great feel on all these games so far...
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#23
Posted: 3/15/2012 3:17:30 PM
Agree with you on St. Lou
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#24
Posted: 3/15/2012 9:30:53 PM
Current record: 3-1 +2.42 units
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#25
Posted: 3/16/2012 1:53:42 AM
Through first 3 days... record is 4-2-1 +2.37 units....ill def take it.
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