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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Dawson/Ward, Complete Saturday Card
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
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#1
Posted: 9/8/2012 2:11:06 AM
After a ridiculously slow August, we have no fewer than 17 fights with available lines for Saturday. Christmas in September? I would like to think so...

Anyways, here goes....

We start the action Saturday with a heavyweight fight in Moscowbetween Konstantine Airich and Vyacheslav Glazkov. Glazkov was 2008 bronze medalist in Beijing. 
He's fighting at home and is a 10/1 favorite. Not rocket science here, Airich is cannon fodder. Under 9.5, -170, 8.5 units to win 5.
From the same venue we also have Jameel McCline against Magomed Abdusalamov. Jameel, pass go, collect $200 and take a nap. 
Under 6.5, -115, 11.5 units.

In the afternoon, we are treated to an interesting doubleheader from London, featuring Edison Miranda vs Tony Bellew. 
Let's face it - Miranda has been trash the last few years. However, he has infamously trained with Chad Dawson for this fight. How did he fair? Let's not go there, at least not yet. 
I've never been a big fan of Bellew. Cocky, stands straight up, over-rated power. I also can't shake the images of him being dropped like a sack of garbage by McKenzie twice by straight right hands. 
This is probably the last hoorah for Miranda, as in this will be his last significant win. Yep, I'm taking the bait and going with Miranda to pull the upset. He's the better fighter and he might be coming off the best training camp of his life. 
Miranda +400, 2.5 units to win 10.

The opening bout is Gumersindo Lucas Carrasco vs Lee Purdy. I don't know much about Carrasco and could only find
a few tapes on him. What did I see? Tough to say. Slow, somewhat dirty and basically limited except for the fact he really winds up on his 
shots. He seems like a guy that likes to bang. It's worked too, as he is 16-0 with 13KO's. These Argentinians are always hard to gauge, much like
Matthysse and others have been when finally getting exposure. Purdy is nothing special, but what he does he does extremely well. 
He takes your best shots, gets inside, throws better shots than he received. Rinse, repeat. While neither guy appears to have real one-shot 
power, I feel this could be an outstanding action fight. The under 9.5 is +200. I'll take my chances. Under 9.5, +200, 2.5 units to win 5.

The Cunningham/Gavern fight is listed at 2:00pm. It's at the Prudential Center where Tomasz Adamek will fight Travis Walker later
in the evening. Cunningham makes the move to heavyweight and Gavern is a big guy. I don't see him getting Gavern out of there
at all. In fact, Cunningham could be ripe for an odd upset. Probably not though, because Gavern can't box for garbage. Gavern will probably
lose from exhaustion if nothing else. Not much cardio or technical ability. I'm parlaying the overs in both fights on this card, with 
Gavern/Cunningham at over 8.5 (-285) and Adamek over 7.5 (-260) for a price of roughly -115. 4.6 units to win 4. The funny thing is 
that either of these guys losing at astronomical prices wouldn't shock me. I'm just not sure which one...


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walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 9/8/2012 2:12:09 AM
Later on we have Matthysse vs Olusegun live on Showtime that should start at the conclusion of Dawson/Ward on HBO.
Olusegun is an awkward fighter, albeit a very talented one. He has one of those styles that you have no idea
how he is winning round after round, but before you know it, you're down a half dozen rounds. Honestly, if it was against anyone else
other than Matthysse, I would love him to make his bones. Matthysse is simply too strong and too patient
for Ajose. He is too wide and slapping with his shots. Matthysse will probably struggle like hell until he finally
lands some big shots or simply wears down the small-framed Olusegun. In fact, it's possible he'll be behind on the scorecards until this point.
Often times, the obvious play is the right play.. Matthysse ITD, +100, 5 units to win 5. 

Finally, the main course. 

Malik Scott vs Bowie Tupou opens the card from Oakland. I don't like either guy, but Tupou can punch.
I'm not sure Scott will be able to pit-pat out 8 rounds without getting caught. Tupou in a minor upset, +180, 2 units to win 3.6

DeMarco should be able to pick apart Molina. However, Molina is obvious a tough guy that will make you fight
all 12 rounds. This one is priced correctly with DeMarco nearly a 3/1 fave. I do think this goes some rounds,
so I'm going with the over here. Over 8.5, -155, 4.65 units to win 3.

Dawson v Ward has been discussed ad nauseum. Regardless of all the advantages Dawson has conceded I
still feel he'll be very competitive. He might actually win this fight realistically, but asking him to do so in Oakland
given the styles of these too guys is borderline insane. With that being said, I haven't figured out how to approach this one yet.
The Dawson points handicap is a relatively short one at +14.5, juiced to hell at -160. Simply for entertainment, that's about all
I'm interested in for this one. 

Dawson +14.5, -160, 4.8 units to win 3

Good luck and enjoy boxing's version of Christmas morning!

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DannoDanger
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#3
Posted: 9/8/2012 10:36:15 AM
GL walk.  And FYI, the Adamek fight is in the afternoon.  Probably start around 4:30.  They wanted it to be prime time in Poland.

Tons of fights today as you mentioned, but I don't have a strong opinion on any of them.  Next week though..... 
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#4
Posted: 9/8/2012 11:04:06 AM
What's up man? Couldn't find ANYTHING this week? Thanks for the info. Seemed really odd they had staggered start times listed. Adamek is slipping badly and I'm starting to think the Vitali beating took several fights from him. That was after Grant almost finished him and before Chambers literally beat him with one arm. Any chance his gravy train stops today?

What's up man? Couldn't find ANYTHING this week? 

Have you backed off that JCC Jr limb?
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#5
Posted: 9/8/2012 12:29:21 PM

is anyone else here having a problem with the thread?

a lot of the endiing text is being cut out.

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#6
Posted: 9/8/2012 12:38:14 PM
Yeah, I don't know what the hell happened...
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#7
Posted: 9/8/2012 3:41:22 PM
Adding: 9 units on McCline/Abdusalamov, -160 to win 5.

Klitschko/Charr over 6.5, -200, 10 units to win 5
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#8
Posted: 9/8/2012 4:08:10 PM
Abdusalamov will NEVER go the distance. Not once. He'll also never be boring. Guy gets dropped less than a minute in by a huge right hand, comes back and gets a quick stoppage in round 2. 
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#9
Posted: 9/8/2012 7:52:37 PM
I can see myself getting sucked into taking Dawson as it gets closer to fight time.  The odds are just getting too crazy.  I know I'm going to hate myself after the fight though. 
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#10
Posted: 9/8/2012 8:19:04 PM
I added 8 more units to win 5 on the +14.5, -160 point spread. Also added another 2 units on Tupou at +240...

It sucks that your decision has to solely be based on how shady the judging might be. That is the main hurdle, right? Because honestly, I don't know what Andre Ward does better than Dawson...
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#11
Posted: 9/8/2012 9:52:38 PM
Like Dawson here


PEACE!
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#12
Posted: 9/8/2012 11:35:59 PM
I guess we have the answers to the stories coming from Dawson's camp about getting KTFO and not taking shots well. Absolutely made a huge difference, because that was the worst version of Dawson ever. His punch resistance was embarrassing. 

The thing is Ward is all wrong for EVERYONE. Love him or hate him, he's the new face of boxing for the next decade. You know what? He deserves every single bit of it. Outstanding fighter and an honest man. Congrats SOG.
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#13
Posted: 9/9/2012 4:03:33 AM
Walk I've Been saying it to anyone who will listen to me for a LONG time that this guy is something special..
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