Messages

Forum Index : Boxing : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [Boxing] Topic: Pac-Man-Bradley... MHO
Redlad send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Redlad
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 4541
Location: New York
#1
Posted: 6/9/2012 12:52:54 AM
If Bradley fights a smart fight I look for him to preform very comptitively tonight.I think his camp realizes that they can't get overly aggressive (especially in the early rds). His boxing skills & speed should have a telling effect on what Manny will be able to accomplish in this bout. I just can't envision the overly energized monster that Manny has had the reputation for in his hay-day. His body seems to have  lost some of the old muscle tone & it does not take a Sherlock Holmes to imagine why. Bradley may not be a big puncher but he can display some crafty footwork & ring smarts to avoid walking into a big shot from the veteran. He also has the ability to use angles to move in & out while scoring points with quick combinations. So I look for this fight to be very close. The problem with betting Bradley to win is summed up in 2 sets of 2 words. Bob Arum & Top Rank. Some of us who have been around the boxing game know how intimidating it can be for a judge to vote against a house fighter. It is a little known fact that promoters have a say in who will judge upcoming fights in which they promote. You can imagine how much pressure this puts on judges who want steady work (esspecially in high profile fights; where they get paid the most money). A very wise boxing expert once told me that to bet against an undefeated fighter, is a losing proposition, in the long run. I'll follow that advice in tonight's match-up. but because I don't trust the judges I'll take the 16.5 point handicap instead of betting Bradley to win straight-up. The main thing I'm worried about (as was pointed out by another poster) is Bradley head-butting his way into trouble. Certainly not out of the equation.

So it's  Bradley + 16.5 handicap as my final Wager for 5 Units.


P.S.

If you don't  agree with any or all of my opinions, it does not mean that

1. You know nothing about boxing or

2. You know nothing about gambling on boxing.


It  merely means we disagree on the analysis of the outcome, where luck & the boxers strategy play a major role, at the end of the day. GLTU!
quote
nuttyrich send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nuttyrich
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 1616
Location: New York
#2
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:31:54 AM
Good luck red!

     
quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#3
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:49:53 AM
That's absolutely 100% the best way to bet this fight. I have zero doubt that Bradley will be more than competitive. Is there really any doubt that he won't lose by a margin greater than 8-4 on the cards? I don't think so. 

I don't like this play, I love this play. Red, your thinking is on point, imho.
quote
CoverLane send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CoverLane
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6903
Location:
#4
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:27:01 AM
You guys think Bradley has a shot at winning some rounds?

Book is offering Winner of round 1...2...3......

Bradley is sitting around +10000 through 3, +6600 round 4, +8000 5 through 12...

Need 2 wins to turn some profit
quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#5
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:42:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

You guys think Bradley has a shot at winning some rounds?

Book is offering Winner of round 1...2...3......

Bradley is sitting around +10000 through 3, +6600 round 4, +8000 5 through 12...

Need 2 wins to turn some profit

I believe you're reading the prop incorrectly. Bradley has to win IN those rounds to win the prop, as in knockout Pacquiao. He's 100/1 to knock him out in rounds 1-3, 66/1 in rounds 4-6 and so on. To answer your question, I would be shocked if he got dominated.
quote
DaBestEver24 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DaBestEver24
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 2486
Location: Hawaii
#6
Posted: 6/9/2012 9:05:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Redlad:

If Bradley fights a smart fight I look for him to preform very comptitively tonight.I think his camp realizes that they can't get overly aggressive (especially in the early rds). His boxing skills & speed should have a telling effect on what Manny will be able to accomplish in this bout. I just can't envision the overly energized monster that Manny has had the reputation for in his hay-day. His body seems to have  lost some of the old muscle tone & it does not take a Sherlock Holmes to imagine why. Bradley may not be a big puncher but he can display some crafty footwork & ring smarts to avoid walking into a big shot from the veteran. He also has the ability to use angles to move in & out while scoring points with quick combinations. So I look for this fight to be very close. The problem with betting Bradley to win is summed up in 2 sets of 2 words. Bob Arum & Top Rank. Some of us who have been around the boxing game know how intimidating it can be for a judge to vote against a house fighter. It is a little known fact that promoters have a say in who will judge upcoming fights in which they promote. You can imagine how much pressure this puts on judges who want steady work (esspecially in high profile fights; where they get paid the most money). A very wise boxing expert once told me that to bet against an undefeated fighter, is a losing proposition, in the long run. I'll follow that advice in tonight's match-up. but because I don't trust the judges I'll take the 16.5 point handicap instead of betting Bradley to win straight-up. The main thing I'm worried about (as was pointed out by another poster) is Bradley head-butting his way into trouble. Certainly not out of the equation.

So it's  Bradley + 16.5 handicap as my final Wager for 5 Units.
P


P.S.

If you don't  agree with any or all of my opinions, it does not mean that

1. You know nothing about boxing or

2. You know nothing about gambling on boxing.


It  merely means we disagree on the analysis of the outcome, where luck & the boxers strategy play a major role, at the end of the day. GLTU!

This guy is killing me.  After your whole analysis u came up wit a bradley +16.5 medium? Youre basically saying pacman will win but it will b close. Cmon. Just bet pacman large on the ml! Its simple. Pacman cant lose! Theres a good chance bradley goes to sleep
quote
Jerseyboy89 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Jerseyboy89
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 1653
Location:
#7
Posted: 6/9/2012 9:27:14 AM
+360 is a gift, a GIFT, Pacquiao is not winning this fight, I can promise you this,
quote
london2k send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
london2k
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 24
Location:
#8
Posted: 6/9/2012 9:40:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Redlad:

If Bradley fights a smart fight I look for him to preform very comptitively tonight.I think his camp realizes that they can't get overly aggressive (especially in the early rds). His boxing skills & speed should have a telling effect on what Manny will be able to accomplish in this bout. I just can't envision the overly energized monster that Manny has had the reputation for in his hay-day. His body seems to have  lost some of the old muscle tone & it does not take a Sherlock Holmes to imagine why. Bradley may not be a big puncher but he can display some crafty footwork & ring smarts to avoid walking into a big shot from the veteran. He also has the ability to use angles to move in & out while scoring points with quick combinations. So I look for this fight to be very close. The problem with betting Bradley to win is summed up in 2 sets of 2 words. Bob Arum & Top Rank. Some of us who have been around the boxing game know how intimidating it can be for a judge to vote against a house fighter. It is a little known fact that promoters have a say in who will judge upcoming fights in which they promote. You can imagine how much pressure this puts on judges who want steady work (esspecially in high profile fights; where they get paid the most money). A very wise boxing expert once told me that to bet against an undefeated fighter, is a losing proposition, in the long run. I'll follow that advice in tonight's match-up. but because I don't trust the judges I'll take the 16.5 point handicap instead of betting Bradley to win straight-up. The main thing I'm worried about (as was pointed out by another poster) is Bradley head-butting his way into trouble. Certainly not out of the equation.

So it's  Bradley + 16.5 handicap as my final Wager for 5 Units.


P.S.

If you don't  agree with any or all of my opinions, it does not mean that

1. You know nothing about boxing or

2. You know nothing about gambling on boxing.


It  merely means we disagree on the analysis of the outcome, where luck & the boxers strategy play a major role, at the end of the day. GLTU!


Sorry....I'm not getting this?  What bet is out there at "+16.5" on Bradley? It can't be round betting, as even a whitewash would only be 120-108...or 12 points........so what exactly does the +16.5 refer to?

Thanks,

quote
Qncyk1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Qncyk1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1093
Location: Mexico
#9
Posted: 6/9/2012 12:32:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Redlad:

If Bradley fights a smart fight I look for him to preform very comptitively tonight.I think his camp realizes that they can't get overly aggressive (especially in the early rds). His boxing skills & speed should have a telling effect on what Manny will be able to accomplish in this bout. I just can't envision the overly energized monster that Manny has had the reputation for in his hay-day. His body seems to have  lost some of the old muscle tone & it does not take a Sherlock Holmes to imagine why. Bradley may not be a big puncher but he can display some crafty footwork & ring smarts to avoid walking into a big shot from the veteran. He also has the ability to use angles to move in & out while scoring points with quick combinations. So I look for this fight to be very close. The problem with betting Bradley to win is summed up in 2 sets of 2 words. Bob Arum & Top Rank. Some of us who have been around the boxing game know how intimidating it can be for a judge to vote against a house fighter. It is a little known fact that promoters have a say in who will judge upcoming fights in which they promote. You can imagine how much pressure this puts on judges who want steady work (esspecially in high profile fights; where they get paid the most money). A very wise boxing expert once told me that to bet against an undefeated fighter, is a losing proposition, in the long run. I'll follow that advice in tonight's match-up. but because I don't trust the judges I'll take the 16.5 point handicap instead of betting Bradley to win straight-up. The main thing I'm worried about (as was pointed out by another poster) is Bradley head-butting his way into trouble. Certainly not out of the equation.

So it's  Bradley + 16.5 handicap as my final Wager for 5 Units.


P.S.

If you don't  agree with any or all of my opinions, it does not mean that

1. You know nothing about boxing or

2. You know nothing about gambling on boxing.


It  merely means we disagree on the analysis of the outcome, where luck & the boxers strategy play a major role, at the end of the day. GLTU!

wow. a non-ego voice of reasoning on the boxing forum that is actually making a play.

as we say here in mexico...mucho gusto, Redland.

I dont believe that corrupt judging will be a factor in this fight. I posted my picks here of paq/jmm3(win),devon/madaina(win),kirkland/molina(win),garcia/morales(win),hopkins/dawson(loss) specifically because of the hometown promoters influence but i dont see that happening tonight. arum recently came out and publically stated that if paq performs the same way he did against jmm he could lose to bradley. i believe that arum has given the green light to his preferred judge(s) to not give the benefit of the doubt to paq in all the close rounds as he is also the promoter of bradley and may think that bradley is his future star. i believe that arum has given up on paq/pbf because he knows that paq will never agree to the test and pbf will not fight without it.

regardless, i like paq tonight to win and think that the line will eventually get down to as low as -300. +16.5 is a good bet because in bradleys last ten, two have been determined early because of headbuts and i think that this fight will not be a blowout and will be fairly judged. reasoning behind paq is bradleys fights against abregu/alexander(pro-rated) he averaged around 540 total punches and paq averaged 650 against mosely/jmm( 578). also, the lesser punch output of bradley are against guys that dont hit nearly as hard as paq and didnt have power in both their hands to keep him honest.

thanks for your non-"im the smartest guy in the boxing forum" post and i hope i see a chavez jr/lee play from you next week.

quote
esplanade send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
esplanade
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 8772
Location:
#10
Posted: 6/9/2012 12:51:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by london2k:



Sorry....I'm not getting this?  What bet is out there at "+16.5" on Bradley? It can't be round betting, as even a whitewash would only be 120-108...or 12 points........so what exactly does the +16.5 refer to?

Thanks,



How many judges are there, my friend? Add up the 3 scorecards and there you go. In addition, a Bradley bet loses to the ko.
quote
rzagza send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rzagza
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 7908
Location: Pennsylvania
#11
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:09:01 PM
+16.5 seems about right, I suppose.  117-111, 117-111, 116-112 is 16.  So basically you are hoping there's either 1 close card or no blowout cards.  I dont see the point in doing this prop though.  Bradley is not going to KO Pac.  He's just not so you're only path to victory is a loss on the cards thats not a wipeout.  Why wouldnt you just bet the fight to go the distance then at -130 or take Pac to win a decision at +125.  You cant seriously Bradley is gonna get a stoppage here.  There are better ways to bet on this fight than this.
quote
Qncyk1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Qncyk1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1093
Location: Mexico
#12
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:17:06 PM

it might not go the distance. 2 of bradleys last 10 have been under because of his noggin and paq has been know to cut.

also, paq may stop bradley.

agree that bradley stopping ko is very slim.

quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#13
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:33:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rzagza:

+16.5 seems about right, I suppose.  117-111, 117-111, 116-112 is 16.  So basically you are hoping there's either 1 close card or no blowout cards.  I dont see the point in doing this prop though.  Bradley is not going to KO Pac.  He's just not so you're only path to victory is a loss on the cards thats not a wipeout.  Why wouldnt you just bet the fight to go the distance then at -130 or take Pac to win a decision at +125.  You cant seriously Bradley is gonna get a stoppage here.  There are better ways to bet on this fight than this.

Fight goes the distance is up to -145, and the prop is -130. Pac might not win a decision. Bradley could get a stoppage, although unlikely. It covers more surface area of your behind relatively cheaply. 

What particular angle is better? On another note, this fight is giving me a headache... 
quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#14
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:36:26 PM
Personally, the only thing I'm playing is "Not Pacquiao inside the distance" at -170.
quote
rzagza send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rzagza
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 7908
Location: Pennsylvania
#15
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:53:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by walktheline:

Personally, the only thing I'm playing is "Not Pacquiao inside the distance" at -170.

You think Bradley is more likely to score a stoppage than Pac?  I just dont see that, at all.  I ultimately think it goes to the cards but I give Bradley little to no chance of a stoppage and Pac a decent chance at a late stoppage.  You also think Bradley is going to win a decision against boxing's cash cow?  How did that work out for Marquez?  Marquez won 7 rounds and still lost.  You think Bradley can do better than that? I dont.
quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#16
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:00:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rzagza:


You think Bradley is more likely to score a stoppage than Pac?  I just dont see that, at all.  I ultimately think it goes to the cards but I give Bradley little to no chance of a stoppage and Pac a decent chance at a late stoppage.  You also think Bradley is going to win a decision against boxing's cash cow?  How did that work out for Marquez?  Marquez won 7 rounds and still lost.  You think Bradley can do better than that? I dont.

He's a Top Rank fighter. Marquez wasn't. Insta rematch clause, huge money there. I don't think Bradley is more likely to stop Pacquiao at all. Why do you think that?
quote
rzagza send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rzagza
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 7908
Location: Pennsylvania
#17
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:13:05 PM
You said you're only playing Pacquaio to not score a KO.  

As far as Bradley being a Top Rank fighter - that means nothing.  Pac is making 30 million for this fight, Bradley is making 5.  Who do you think stands to lose more in future wages if Pacquaio loses?  Top Rank.  They cannot have Manny lose.  Once he loses the mystique is gone and the massive paydays for everyone in Top Rank go away.  They wont have that.
quote
rzagza send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rzagza
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 7908
Location: Pennsylvania
#18
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:14:20 PM
Once he's done with Manny, Bradley will move on to good but not great paydays with guys like Khan, Ortiz, Berto etc.  He'll be making roughly the same $ in those fights even if he loses to Manny.  
quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#19
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:19:32 PM
Bradley being a Top Rank fighter COULD mean that he won't automatically be raped by the three blind mice. If the Mayweather fight is off the table, where does Pacquiao go after Bradley? A rematch would be huge. The more and more I think about this, I feel Bradley will get a fair shake on the cards.

Is Pacquiao even going to continue fighting after Bradley anyways?
quote
rzagza send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rzagza
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 7908
Location: Pennsylvania
#20
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:21:50 PM
It doesnt matter who Manny fights.  He gets 30 million dollars to fight whoever.  Cotto again - another 30 million.  Amir Khan - 30 million. Doesnt matter who it is.  You think he's going to walk away from that $?
quote
walktheline send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
walktheline
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 4526
Location: Pennsylvania
#21
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:28:37 PM
He's never going to fight Khan. Cotto again? Who the hell wants to see that? I not sure if he CAN walk away, because there are rumblings that he has financial trouble. Seems absurd, but it's been said by more than a few people.

Honestly, I have a feeling Pacquiao wants to finally take a breather. He's probably too proud to wilt in the middle of a fight but I can absolutely see a point where he simply doesn't want to fight anymore. We've been teetering on that point for a while now and another tough fight could seal the deal. Don't you agree?
quote
london2k send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
london2k
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 24
Location:
#22
Posted: 6/9/2012 2:54:24 PM
I think it's easy to over-analyse this fight.

To me it comes down to this....

Pac can almost certainly take Bradley's best punch, and keep on coming.

Bradley can almost certainly NOT take Pac's best punch, and would likely be KO'd by it.

If the above theory is indeed correct....Pac has no reason to avoid Bradley, he can wade in firing with both barrels. If Bradley slips up ONE time...his great footwork notwithstanding, the fight will be over.

You can get +150 on Pac by KO. So the linesmaker is saying that Bradley, on average, would only get caught once every 18 rounds.
I think that is WAY out of line. Bradley won't, I'm almost sure, be in the survival mode....just backpeddling to avoid exchanges. And if he gets into repeated exchanges, Pac is likely to land the big one.

This is like the Superbowl.....very often the line and matchup is one that you wouldn't even bother betting if the game were a regular season game.....but you bet it because everyone has to have a bet on the Superbowl. I don't see this as a great betting opportunity.......but because it's a "Superbowl-type" fight, I want some action on it. The Pac by KO at +150 seems the most logical way forward to me.
quote
rzagza send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rzagza
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 7908
Location: Pennsylvania
#23
Posted: 6/9/2012 3:06:04 PM
Cotto again? Dont be surprised.  It's all about money and it will do huge numbers.
quote
gridironguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
gridironguy
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 5296
Location:
#24
Posted: 6/9/2012 4:22:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rzagza:

Cotto again? Dont be surprised.  It's all about money and it will do huge numbers.



quote
Redlad send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Redlad
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 4541
Location: New York
#25
Posted: 6/9/2012 7:03:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rzagza:

+16.5 seems about right, I suppose.  117-111, 117-111, 116-112 is 16.  So basically you are hoping there's either 1 close card or no blowout cards.  I dont see the point in doing this prop though.  Bradley is not going to KO Pac.  He's just not so you're only path to victory is a loss on the cards thats not a wipeout.  Why wouldnt you just bet the fight to go the distance then at -130 or take Pac to win a decision at +125.  You cant seriously Bradley is gonna get a stoppage here.  There are better ways to bet on this fight than this.



Well; although I agree that it is highly unlikely that Bradley stops Pac-Man. I can surely see him winning on points. That's why I wouldn't bet  Pac-Man to win a decision. As far as the over bet.is concerned , on paper it looks like an over play, but Bradley's tendency to fight like a billy goat could cause the fight to be stopped due to a cuts. That's why I think I made the most logical play taking the points handicap. I hope that clarifies my reasoning. GLTU!
quote
Forum Index : Boxing : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.