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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Alexander -165 is a great bet...
ZOUK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 2/23/2012 1:36:36 AM
LRM704:: Cory Spinks for instance. He fought 7 of his last 9 bouts in Missouri (the other two were Florida and Memphis). The funny thing is he started his first dozen or so fights in Missouri, then traveled. At 13-0 he lost a split-decision in CA, then fought back in Missouri and won 16 more. Went to Italy and lost. He beat Mayorga on AC, and Zab in Las Vegas. After winning 3 major belts at welterweight he brought them back to Missouri to defend them there. In a rematch, he lost his belts to Zab in Missouri. Returning home as a champ increased pressure as previously people came out to support him and encourage him, after winning belts, they cam out expecting him to win.
The theory is like the NFL back-up QB. A starter is injured 3rd Quarter and the team is down 2 touchdowns. The back-up (most times) isn't expected to come in cold off then bench and perform well. No expectation, and it seems he has shown he can be a starter. Next week the back-up is now the starter and the pressure is on as he is expected to perform well as he has done it before. He performs like a back-up most times (that's why he wasn't the starter) and the term regression to the means applies!
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#27
Posted: 2/23/2012 10:30:47 AM

brett miller is from missouri and will not be officiating this fight. coincidentally, he scored the last fight against devon.

although some inexperienced cappers may believe otherwise, hometown judging sometimes is not limited to geography. it can actually be hometown to the promoter, such as been the case with brett miller who also will not be officiating this fight.

brett miller has had a suspicious history of fights in missouri. he has had two fights, both alexander fights, when devon was under don king promotions. he subsequently scored both fights matthysse/kotelynk for devon.

the majority of millers fights have been in Minnesota, his homestate.

but what was interesting for miller was that his first fight in missouri against kotelynk he was officially licensed six days after the fight. some believe that he was paid off by king and, therefore, gave a hometown "decision" to devon.

i am still betting devon as speed and technique are generally less affected than power when a fighter moves up in weight. khan, kotelnyk, morales and corley all made it the distance with maidana at 140 and i am hoping that devon makes it as well.  i dont see marcus winning a decision against a more skilled devon at the higher weight, as i am betting that the additional seven pounds will not have as much as an effect on devon's speed and technique as it will on maidanas power.

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#28
Posted: 2/23/2012 12:08:19 PM
dennis nelson is the judge from minnesota and not brett miller.
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#29
Posted: 2/23/2012 1:01:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZOUK:



Alexander vs Matthysse
Referee: Rafael Ramos (Texas)
Judges: Carlos Colon (Puerto Rico), Denny Nelson (Minnesota), Brett Miller (Kansas)




The above material about judges and their home-states was correctly posted previously in POST #25. It was the only thing in BOLD so it stood out and was clear to many who the judges were and where each hailed from (including the referee).
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#30
Posted: 2/23/2012 5:07:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LRM704:

 I am really on the fence with this Alexander fight .

 I'm with you as on the fence. I think the question is...can Alexander box and stay away the whole 10 rounds? I feel having smoger as the ref is an avantage to Maidana as he will let them mix it up more. If I bet the fight I would take the dog and look for Maidana to start catching him more and more in the late rounds. GL

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#31
Posted: 2/23/2012 8:34:03 PM
This fight is interesting, stylistically speaking. I'm not a Maidana fan but the deck is stacked for him in an otherwise winnable fight. He has to fight on the road and only in 10 rounds? Why would an equally marketable fighter take such terms? One has to wonder, right?

He beat Ortiz after taking huge damage and it was mostly considered a fluke. He falls down to Khan (literally and on the cards) and still manages to land "fight changing power" when well behind. My question is if he can be a front runner and establish an early lead in a big fight. Not on the road against Alexander. 

Alexander is a proven bread winner and hosting another title caliber fight in his own backyard. Why the absurd location and terms for this fight?10 round tuneup? C'mon. If anyone has a good explanation of this and why immediately after the Matthysse debacle? 

There isn't a reason in the world to entertain a Maidana wager at these odds. How could you? Devon laying short chalk is an easy small play based on the terms alone. Can I get a ring size? Judges? Doesn't matter. Why go further and ask questions we know the answers to in the first place?




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#32
Posted: 2/24/2012 12:55:58 AM
Some really great points being made. Thanks to all of you for sharing   It seems that most people are going with a small wager for this bout .
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#33
Posted: 2/24/2012 10:04:57 AM

one more factor to consider is that back in june of last year devon and cunningham both said that he was moving to 147 as devon walks around at 165 and the 140 cut was hurting him.

maidana only said that he was willing to go to 147 for a khan rematch. he has never mentioned of having problems making 140 nor a desire to fight at 147.

if maidana cant successfully carry his power at ww he doesnt have anything else to fall back on other than his heart.

 

 

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DatMofoThere85 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#34
Posted: 2/24/2012 9:33:08 PM

Of all of the opponents that Alexander SHOULD have lost too, none of them punches as slow, wide, open, and with as much forward momentum as Maidana. Alexander ITD wouldn't surprise me. Risk of a headbutt too as its opposite stances. Tecnical dec counts as ITD at 5dimes. Alexander by dec is the most likely scenario but -170 isn't too bad as it covers ITD and a draw gets pushed.

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#35
Posted: 2/25/2012 4:35:23 PM

Following the money 5Dimes just raised it to -200 on Alexander so of course now I frigging take it. Why would I want to lay 165 when I can wait and lay 200  

Know wonder my father always called me an imbecile 

 

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#36
Posted: 2/25/2012 4:36:37 PM
Mack05, the only thing missing is you chiming in 
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#37
Posted: 2/25/2012 9:47:10 PM

Already took Alexander so I threw in 2 win bets.

ITD on both fights GL Everyone

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#38
Posted: 2/25/2012 11:45:18 PM

 Congratulations to all Alexander backers 

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#39
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:20:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LRM704:

Following the money 5Dimes just raised it to -200 on Alexander so of course now I frigging take it. Why would I want to lay 165 when I can wait and lay 200  

Know wonder my father always called me an imbecile 

 



I remember a legendary sport bettor told me when I was young, knowing when to bet (a fighter or team) is just as important in the long run as who you bet. I use to middle fights when sportsbooks all over were open to US bettors. Oscar vs Tito switched and was so close open, then got Oscar fans late... predicting betting public is usually easy. They are favorite bettors, fighters and teams with names. I first spoke to a guy that did Pinnacle lines, told me that in the 90's right after Dallas won 3 superbowls, they added a point or two to every Dallas game as people remembered what they were, now what they became.
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