Posted: 1/25/2012 10:52:54 AM
Whats up Covers,
Thought i would show some love, flip my bread over, and offer you a little of that butter.......if you're smart enough to listen.....lol
First off, wether or not the Floyd-Pacman fight happens May 5th, sometime in November, or whenever, I want you to remember one simple number. its a number that wasnt up long, and its a number that should be planted "like a seed" in a wagerers head. When there was a "serious whiff" of a Floyd-Pacquaio fight, two vegas sportsbooks opened with a line. It was an identical line. Remember, this is a fight line......in Las Vegas. If you underestimate and/or disrespect the opening line of a fight, let me encourage you to implement a little actuarial science "statistics" to your wagering weaponry.
You've got the recognized "pound for pound" best fighter in Manny Pacquaio. He puts on an electric, fan friendly performance, almost every time he fights, generally ending in crowd pleasing knockouts. And you've got Floyd Mayweather Jr. The arrogant, egotistical, counterpunching / defensive wizzard, who grinds out his big paydays by rolling his shoulder and compubox stats. Hell, he beats his girlfriend, and will be going to jail this summer because of his actions....... STOP !!!! - If you started buying into that regarding your mindset for a wager-- you're becoming a victim of "the hype". Didn't Flavor Flav warn you about that...many moons ago?
Not saying common oponents accurately predict outcomes of fights,but you can certainly use them as a tool to establish pattern. Even a Pacman fan would admit that 36 rounds with Marquez honestly netted a 18-18 total. If you've got any sharpness at all to your wagering knife, you understand that 36 common opponent rounds is as close to the gift of a PATTERN as you will receive. I've watched all 3 fights a minimum of 3 times each, and I would say that is a very close assessment. Well, the round total on the Floyd-Marquez fight was 12-0. I've watched that one a few times as well, and theres absolutely nothing that would indicate anything but 12-0. Do the simple numbers tell me Floyd will win every round, NO, do they tell me he will win AT LEAST half of them, yes..Now, wherever you're working from a statistical standpoint, you're working on the side of a Floyd to Win wager with any common sense you might have. Anything else would be with your heart (or hype). Sorry Pacman fans, the guy who comes to the ring as a domestic animal, arrogant fool, remains at the end of the day, the only 2 things he really cares about, Rich and Undefeated......
QuickFact: common opponents round scoring 18-18, and 12-0. That, to the avid boxing wagerer, stands out pretty loud and clear. Oh, and that opener I was talking about. It was Floyd -145. Only a blip on the radar, but its the closest thing to a "tell" that you're going to get.
Stay sharp fellow bettors !!