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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Devon Alexander vs Marcos Rene Maidana (Open Odds & Analysis)
ZOUK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/4/2012 10:17:13 AM
My opening line guess is...
Devon Alexander -140 vs Marcos Rene Maidana +100
I have yet to see an odds line posted by any sportsbook even though the fight is set for February 26, 2012. The fight is in Devon's hometown, and we saw how the judges stiffed Matthysse on a Split Decision. Bradley refused to fight Devon in St.Louis even though it was costing him a significant amount. Although Bradley clearly won, if it was in someone's hometown, you better win via KO (TKO), or it's still a chance to lose.
I feel the opening odds, even though it's in Alexander's hometown it will be almost even money. If anyone has a line that has been posted please update my thread. I will venture and take a stab at what the line will open at although we know neither fighter will be a commanding favorite on the odds board.
Devon Alexander -140 vs Marcos Rene Maidana +100
 (normally +110 but more likely +100 for a larger gap should the odds receive heavy action forcing the line to move significantly).
After two poor performances, Alexander has athleticism but seems to lack the discipline in fundamentals to perform 12 rounds with dominance. Maidana last two fights (before Petrov), showed his lack of boxing ability and more of a slugger. Especially losing to Khan (which is now even more exposing Maidana's lack of boxing ability after the close loss to Khan had to Peterson). Following that fight,  he fought a very old, out of shape Morales (but also one of the all-time premiere ring generals), brought him to school, despite losing on the scorecards.
I find it hard to see how Maidana will handle a very athletic Alexander (although losing to Bradley, and many thought he clearly lost to Matthysse but got the hometown decision.
The difference is Bradley had great fundamentals and works as hard in the ring as anyone. Matthysse also has a style and ability many people overlook. As for Khan, it shows now that he was over-ranked and Morales was considered not to make it 5 rounds against Maidana, yet alone making the fight decision go either way.
So, in summary, Maidana lost to a highly over-rated Khan and had problems with very over-the-hill (even though he's a great ring technician) Morales. Alexander lost to a prime fighter on the rise (Bradley) and had problems with another under-rated fighter in his prime. I feel Alexander has the speed and better boxing ability and with his hometown (always nice for decisions), should be around -220 in a realistic line. So if the line stay according to what I think it will open, Alexander could be a big play. The one thing I'm always concerned with is fundamentals and determination and if I don't see them in a fighter, even though I see great value, I won't always lay a huge unit bet down, but somewhere in between an average and a huge play.
Any thoughts, analysis or especially definitive odds information, please post!
Thanks!
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#2
Posted: 1/6/2012 6:31:59 PM
I haven't looked for a line, but I would open Alexander at -200. The fight is at home, so if he stands he'll win. Maidana is a game dude that won't get stopped, but he'll lose round after round. 

However, I'm not sure how he'll react if he gets hurt. Would he hold? Would he fire back recklessly? That's the only real wild card, imo. Also, I'm still feeling Maidana is vastly over-rated and still living off his success against Ortiz - a fight he was almost blown out of early on. 

If that fight wouldn't have happend, Maidana wouldn't have got such high profile fights. Morales is so far gone yet Maidana struggled with him, was hurt and almost knocked out by Amir, etc.

I'll be making a very large wager on Alexander if it's -200 or less. 
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#3
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:04:08 PM
I'm heavily leaning the same way. I felt -210 or so was correct, but I'm decent at estimating opening lines as this fight with a large vig would get much action and provide sportsbooks with a greater advantage.
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#4
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:12:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZOUK:

I'm heavily leaning the same way. I felt -210 or so was correct, but I'm decent at estimating opening lines as this fight with a large vig would get much action and provide sportsbooks with a greater advantage.


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#5
Posted: 1/8/2012 11:11:59 PM
Great "guess" ..............since the line has been out weeks at Euro books which I'm sure you'll swear you never saw.
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#6
Posted: 1/9/2012 1:23:49 PM
sharpstick: I felt -200 would be an accurate line, but under -150 is where it would open.

tlml1899: Check the history on fights that were just announced and everyone here said no line was set yet. I did several from -150 (small favorites, to -800 on large favorites. Name the site and date they set a line and what sportsbooks were taking action on their lines. A boxer fighting in St.Louis against a guy from the Philippines, and Europe is setting lines for these fights (as in Europe they don't know the fighters), but yet the U.S. or off-shore (or Philippines has a line) that I've seen!!!
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#7
Posted: 1/9/2012 10:10:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZOUK:


tlml1899: Check the history on fights that were just announced and everyone here said no line was set yet. I did several from -150 (small favorites, to -800 on large favorites. Name the site and date they set a line and what sportsbooks were taking action on their lines. A boxer fighting in St.Louis against a guy from the Philippines, and Europe is setting lines for these fights (as in Europe they don't know the fighters), but yet the U.S. or off-shore (or Philippines has a line) that I've seen!!!


"Everyone" was wrong .The line has been up for weeks because I have a account with these guys. And yes European books are setting the lines before the US books are.

Check for yourself :

http://www.betfred.com/sport?mode=cf&oc_idfoselection=98704996.20&oc_idfomarket=3434288.20&priceup=4&pricedown=6

And this isnt the only book with the line up ,paddypower also does .
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#8
Posted: 1/9/2012 10:10:59 PM
Here's a click-able link

betfred
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#9
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:40:24 PM
2 sportsbooks I never used posted a line in Europe. That's not many considering I searched boxing forums, sites ans sportsbooks and no line was posted. Never seen or been to either site!
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#10
Posted: 1/17/2012 6:01:29 AM
Zouk, on www.sportsbetting.ag the line is -150 Devon Alexander and +120 Marcos Maidana. Hope this is of use to you.  What size bet are you thinking?  Secondly what do you think about the Rico Ramos vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux fight? What is your prediction for it?  Thanks for your time.
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#11
Posted: 1/22/2012 3:13:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by monkeybuay:

Zouk, on www.sportsbetting.ag the line is -150 Devon Alexander and +120 Marcos Maidana. Hope this is of use to you.  What size bet are you thinking?  Secondly what do you think about the Rico Ramos vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux fight? What is your prediction for it?  Thanks for your time.


First off, my apologies as I had family & friends issue that seemed to snowball into more and bigger problems. Let's see what's on the agenda...
Bet sizing I will try to keep simple. 1 Units to 5 Units (2 Being average  wager). I use the 2 Unit as average instead of 1 Unit not for placing smaller wagers on fights with smaller edges (that's made for NBA totals), it is meant without getting into half units (or anything to confusing) for the use of making plays in events with ML underdogs and parlays.
I feel comfortable with the fight in MO, as this fight will go to the cards barring any cuts, swelling, oddities, etc... I feel Devon with his fast hands and feet can move enough so Marcos can never get adjusted as he is flat footed as a puncher so it is easy to anticipate his every move. This is the reason I was difficult on Ortiz as he couldn't anticipate Marcos at anytime, which shows a lack of natural ability and training (an exposing how green [in-experienced]).
Even with a hometown decision I'm always cautious. I feel it is an easy fight for Devon who took on a relentless Bradley who knows how to fight.
Wager: I'd say wait and it you don't see any major shift, wait until weigh-in and get a look at Devon and his posture and look of confidence. If all seems good, maybe 3 Unit play, 1.5 the normal, but also a possible parlay. I will update more with round breakdown.
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#12
Posted: 1/22/2012 3:34:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by monkeybuay:

Zouk: Secondly what do you think about the Rico Ramos vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux fight? What is your prediction for it?  Thanks for your time.


If I recall Rigondeaux was around -250, and if you read my posts I avoid laying odds as every week had opportunities that are great value and the dog should be equal or favored. I liked Rigondeaux, but with only 8 fights I didn't like that. One thing though, it appeared he had hurt half his opponents and the other half he knocked down at sometime. Now with a record 9-0-0 (7 KO), the other 2 opponents he didn't KO he knocked down.

Sorry I was late and hope you made a good choice. Today was my first free day in over a week and looking back, if you didn't mention it, it would have never considered it. My play would have been to look for a parlay with underdog, or maybe 3 Unit Bet (1.5 normal for people), because he is in-experienced at pro, he shows and displays stats as a long time veteran. Don't forget he is also 31 and is mature.
Hope you picked a winner. Next time just email me and I will give you contact number so we both don't miss a nice bet!

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#13
Posted: 1/23/2012 7:16:39 PM
monkeybuay: How did you make out on the fight (Rigondeaux)?
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#14
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:39:25 AM
QUOTE="javascript: var newWin = window.open('http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=39&sub=101229361')">Devon Alexander vs Marcos Rene Maidana (Open Odds & Analysis)
Originally Posted by tlml1899:

Great "guess" ..............since the line has been out weeks at Euro books which I'm sure you'll swear you never saw.


Hopkins has no chance at winning - pound dawson

[Quote: Originally Posted by tlml1899] You guys are so far off ......Hopkins will win this fight easily


tlml1899: That's right... you get the odds way before us and the fights, that's how you knew Hopkins would fool us all. We must listen to the Oracle
 
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#15
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:58:22 PM
Big Dev is the play here. I got -165. Think he points this..Wont bet big cause of Alexander quiting against Bradley
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#16
Posted: 1/28/2012 11:01:20 PM
If Alexander boxes for 12 rounds, he will win, but I like the underdog to come out looking for the KO, Maidana can walk through Alexander's soft blows, he won't worry about a decision he knows he can't win. Maidana by KO small play.
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#17
Posted: 1/31/2012 2:23:16 AM
I like Alexander to cruise to a decision..
Mathesse is much better than Madiana imo 
and Alexander held his own(i think he lost tho)

I think Alexander will outbox him, Maidana may stun him here or there.. Maidana doesnt go to the body enough to slow Alexander down..

Maidana had trouble with a shot Morales, and a shot Corley..

Alexander wins even if he loses at home...

EASY BET IMO
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#18
Posted: 2/23/2012 11:56:33 AM
cd2010: GL. I feel Devon controls this fight totally. Maidana has difficulty with fighters with decent but constant footwork. Unless Devon feels he needs to prove to fans he can win big time, I doubt he will have much trouble. Also, Maidana is weak in boxing skills but has stamina with high work output and hard punches. Devon lacks solid fundamentals but his athleticism makes up for it. Also, Devon can win with movement and jabbing, possibly a stoppage due to swelling.
I hit the video footage of fights around 8AM PST! The weigh-in I won't rely on very much as both are young and near their natural weight.
Bradley & Matthysse are both good boxers that adjust and compete well against many styles. They might lose, but they make it competitive. Maidana lacks that, only Ortiz, young and known now as a quitter  and he fought Maidana's fight.
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#19
Posted: 2/24/2012 5:10:38 PM

Hey ZOUK! I did well with Rigondeaux, I was not sure if he would knock out Ramos (which he did) but I bet heavily on him and cleared $500 on the night. Quite good for 18 minutes of boxing.  He had an extensive  amateur career...I think his record was 400 won and like 5 lost...And that, counts for something!  What do you think about Adrien Broner and Eloy Perez?  I am thinking Broner by KO..don't think the fight will last 6 rounds...More like 3...

good luck on whatever you play

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#20
Posted: 2/24/2012 9:39:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by monkeybuay:

What do you think about Adrien Broner and Eloy Perez?  I am thinking Broner by KO..don't think the fight will last 6 rounds...More like 3...

Eloy Perez has good all around boxing skills plus above average athleticism for a Mexican (not being racist). I like the over even though Broner is the goods.

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