Basilashvili has been playing up to his competition recently, and I see him playing well. Not enough to win, but enough to catch a set, with Simon closing him out to advance. Laying the -178 because I calculate a greater enough % to cash than the -1.5s lean above. Value enough for me.
J Sock O37.5g -118 Sock is the usual winner, and I had a strong lean on Sock -1.5s -123. I'm not big on double betting a game, so I'm going with the over. Jiri has pulled away at least one set every time these two have met on clay. Except for one match in 2014, they've had a set go 7-6 at some point. While I do think Sock comes out on top, I see it in a 3-1 or even potentially 3-2 outcome. I'll take the over and cross my fingers for some 7-6 sets.
V Troicki -6.5g -114
Really? Only -6.5? Donskoy has been terrible on clay thus far and Troicki just trounced him 6-1 6-2 a month ago... on clay. I think one guy is clearly better here and has shown the ability to break the other multiple times in a set. V tricky for the victory.
M Zverev -1.5s -155
Just watched Mischa cruise through Geneva and put up a decent fight against Wawrinka. Prone to dropping a set here and there, but I think he pulls away and gets a solid 3-1 win tomorrow.
J Donaldson O3.5 -192
I can't decide who is going to win here, but I'm confident enough that they will each win a set that I'll lay the -192 juice. Slight lean towards Donaldson winning.
Too juicy to play for me, but N Djokovic -2.5s -320 looks like a lock. Not adding to leans or plays tracking though.
Basilashvili has been playing up to his competition recently, and I see him playing well. Not enough to win, but enough to catch a set, with Simon closing him out to advance. Laying the -178 because I calculate a greater enough % to cash than the -1.5s lean above. Value enough for me.
J Sock O37.5g -118 Sock is the usual winner, and I had a strong lean on Sock -1.5s -123. I'm not big on double betting a game, so I'm going with the over. Jiri has pulled away at least one set every time these two have met on clay. Except for one match in 2014, they've had a set go 7-6 at some point. While I do think Sock comes out on top, I see it in a 3-1 or even potentially 3-2 outcome. I'll take the over and cross my fingers for some 7-6 sets.
V Troicki -6.5g -114
Really? Only -6.5? Donskoy has been terrible on clay thus far and Troicki just trounced him 6-1 6-2 a month ago... on clay. I think one guy is clearly better here and has shown the ability to break the other multiple times in a set. V tricky for the victory.
M Zverev -1.5s -155
Just watched Mischa cruise through Geneva and put up a decent fight against Wawrinka. Prone to dropping a set here and there, but I think he pulls away and gets a solid 3-1 win tomorrow.
J Donaldson O3.5 -192
I can't decide who is going to win here, but I'm confident enough that they will each win a set that I'll lay the -192 juice. Slight lean towards Donaldson winning.
Too juicy to play for me, but N Djokovic -2.5s -320 looks like a lock. Not adding to leans or plays tracking though.
A trend I am going to look into further - the mens underdogs that I either lean ML or +games have been decent at at least grabbing a set. Will use that trend and see what I can get from the O3.5 set lines. For example:
Where it worked: G Simon, M Zverev, Seppi, Tipsarevic, Kicker, De Greef.
Where it didn't: Stakhovsky, Sock, Mahut, Hamou, Donaldson.
FRENCH TOURNEY MAIN DRAW RESULTS:
8-9, -3.69u
FRENCH ATP MENS OFFICIAL PLAYS:
3-5, -3.43u
FRENCH ATP WOMENS OFFICIAL PLAYS:
5-4, -.26u
Tracking my leans for historical reference...
FRENCH MENS 5/29 LEANS:
4-14 w/ A Zvev -6.5g interrupted. Glad I narrowed down actual plays to 3 that I won.
A trend I am going to look into further - the mens underdogs that I either lean ML or +games have been decent at at least grabbing a set. Will use that trend and see what I can get from the O3.5 set lines. For example:
Where it worked: G Simon, M Zverev, Seppi, Tipsarevic, Kicker, De Greef.
Where it didn't: Stakhovsky, Sock, Mahut, Hamou, Donaldson.
FRENCH TOURNEY MAIN DRAW RESULTS:
8-9, -3.69u
FRENCH ATP MENS OFFICIAL PLAYS:
3-5, -3.43u
FRENCH ATP WOMENS OFFICIAL PLAYS:
5-4, -.26u
Tracking my leans for historical reference...
FRENCH MENS 5/29 LEANS:
4-14 w/ A Zvev -6.5g interrupted. Glad I narrowed down actual plays to 3 that I won.
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