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Author: [Tennis] Topic: Barthel versus Errani for the title
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#1
Posted: 2/2/2013 11:08:17 AM
Hmmmmmmmm


I'm pretty sure I know who will win this 


Not going to pick it yet without seeing the line 


Thoughts on this match -up
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#2
Posted: 2/2/2013 11:22:10 AM
Line will probably open something like Errani -150, Barthel +120 but line will shift a bit towards Barthel. I'd imagine it closing at -125, +105

I'm going Barthel all day when the line opens. Easy service games, unlike Errani. The over (something like 21 or 21.5) will be a worthwhile bet too IMO.
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Posted: 2/2/2013 11:28:34 AM
string if you were a bookie would you open this up at -150 Errani?


I would have complete opposite of you 


why would you want to get hammered with Barthel money on the plus side?


if Errani opens up at -150 that would be a little concerning 




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Posted: 2/2/2013 11:30:51 AM
I would expect a -125 on Errani at most 

but if they gift us more then this ????   I dont except to many gifts from the books 

they usually will blow up in your face 


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#5
Posted: 2/2/2013 11:31:37 AM
* accept not except 
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#6
Posted: 2/2/2013 11:35:17 AM
This week they opened Bartoli -140 against Barthel +120, and they also opened Vinci -130 against Barthel +115.
I'm simply expecting something similar for the finals, and Errani seems to get overly generous lines given her struggles on hardcourt (She was -180 against Cibulkova earlier this year)
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#7
Posted: 2/2/2013 11:41:01 AM
String they opened it there and it got bet down to -125 on my book is what i had Bartoli at 


I expect Mona to be favored 
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#8
Posted: 2/2/2013 12:33:13 PM
08:10 AM 4861 Sara Errani




+135















4862 Mona Barthel




-155



Not what I expected. Gun to my head I like Barthel to win but I will not be taking her if it stays at -155. Probably going to play the Over.
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#9
Posted: 2/2/2013 12:36:07 PM
I have to say I am damn good 


And I will unload on Barthel 



Good Luck 



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Posted: 2/2/2013 12:36:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gavinnick:

string if you were a bookie would you open this up at -150 Errani?


I would have complete opposite of you 


why would you want to get hammered with Barthel money on the plus side?


if Errani opens up at -150 that would be a little concerning 







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Posted: 2/2/2013 1:30:11 PM
not often you see the world no 7 as a +150 dog against someone in the 40s in her first premier event final....mmm.....obviously bookies see a barthel win but not sure it will be that easy for her....gl
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Posted: 2/2/2013 1:45:14 PM
^^^^ English Gent 

it never is that easy 

could I be trapped = YES 

But When I get my read I go with it.......My reads have paid off very well this yr 

And today I read this 


BARTHEL FOR THE WIN 

5 units for me 
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#13
Posted: 2/2/2013 4:23:22 PM
My biggest play for a awhile. Errani 2k to win 3k...
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#14
Posted: 2/2/2013 4:29:51 PM
^^^^^^. 



Mack I don't see what you really see in Errani 


Good luck 



Pretty sure you are trapped.




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Posted: 2/2/2013 4:31:10 PM
^^^^ 


I can give you 2 tricks they just pulled on you 



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#16
Posted: 2/2/2013 5:00:43 PM
Gav you could be right here but I playing on a hunch. Errani is a little warrior, the more experienced person and I can't refuse these odds..If she hangs tough (and I fully expect her to) she eeks out a win. If Bartoli wins first set she wins the match. Errani (unlike Bartoli) will take her chance when it comes. 
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Posted: 2/2/2013 5:07:58 PM
Oh man Mack don't do it bro 


If you like Eranni don't bet so much .... Believe me this is not a match-up to bet big on .... They (books ) have used two major baiting tactics on this match 


This is most likely with 70 to 75% probability of hitting on Mona 


The losses have come during the rounds 


In the finals this is 100%.  This would be the first time I have seen this angle lose in a final 


All be it .... My sample size in finals is 2 lol 


Nonetheless 100% :)




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#18
Posted: 2/2/2013 5:23:10 PM
Gav...If I didn't have such a big day I would sit tight, but I have already decided to keep rolling while I am hot and until I lose. Even if it loses I can't have complaints as I really have had a big day..I bet a lot on hunches at decent prices and do quite well in general. 

I will probably get ripped for showing these tickets, but below is why I am having a shot with Errani. First ticket was a rugby game at 1:30 GMT. I played the second ticket when South Africa were 1-0 up at half time..Mali ended up not only winning the second half but also winning on penalties..

Ireland  +2.0 @ 10/11
€1,500.00 Single 02/02/2013 12:52:15 1,500.00 2,863.64
Bet Confirmation  - DC6157644610I  - Internet   Time of bet:  02/02/2013 12:52:15 Print
Selections
No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
1 Ireland +2.0 Wales v Ireland
(Hcap with Tie) 02/02/2013 None 10/11 Won
Stake:  1,500.00   Returns:  2,863.64  

______________________________________________________

Mali @ 12/5
€2,863.64 Single 02/02/2013 19:34:32 2,863.64 9,736.38
Bet Confirmation  - EC1025952810F  - Flash   Time of bet:  02/02/2013 19:34:32 Print
Selections
No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
1 Mali South Africa v Mali
(To Win 2nd Half) 02/02/2013 None 12/5 Won
Stake:  2,863.64   Returns:  9,736.38  
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#19
Posted: 2/2/2013 5:29:36 PM
^^^^^ nice work 


Mack 


I'm  on a pretty good roll too , not that good so maybe you are hot 

And you hit this one,


I for one am pretty sure it is a loser ,   But  I could be wrong again 

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#20
Posted: 2/2/2013 7:13:22 PM
Errani +1.5 sets -162
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#21
Posted: 2/3/2013 1:23:02 AM
Both sides have merit, how about the over?

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#22
Posted: 2/3/2013 5:20:59 AM
over?
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#23
Posted: 2/3/2013 8:22:25 AM
I think this match has two scenarios... Barthel romps it in 2 or Errani in 3. I have played Errani @ +200 and Errani to win 2-1 @ +450. 

If this goes to a third I will be well confident. Errani has won numerous titles, including grand slam doubles. She knows how to close out a game. The image of Barthel not being able to close agains Azarenka will live long in the memory. She served twice for it and then lost the final set on a tie break. 

She has had difficulties closing matches throughout her young career. Her only WTA win came via easy straight sets. If that little tiger Errani can bring her to 3 sets then game over....

GO ERRANI!!!!!!!
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Posted: 2/3/2013 8:51:14 AM
Barthel with 22 unforced errors already...OMG

Errani just gives the ball back and Barthel "takes care" of it
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Posted: 2/3/2013 9:05:33 AM
great fight set. Errani did the one thing I didnt think she would do and thats not take her chances. I think 5-5 and she has break points thats the match right there..Barthel dug in and stayed aggressive. 

Mona won the first set playing pretty bad..She has bucket loads of potential. I was surprised to see how well she fought on the big points...

Big set coming...
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