Tips on betting tennis

Forum: Tennis Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [Tennis] Topic: Tips on betting tennis
Ashton_Grewal PM Ashton_Grewal
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Posted: 5/23/2012 1:54:21 PM
Hi guys. Summer grand slam season is about to kick off and we're looking to put together an article on the best tips for newbie tennis bettors.

Think you can help me out? Give me your best tip and I'll make sure to give you the props in the article if we use it.

Thanks guys.
sparty444 PM sparty444
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Posted: 5/23/2012 2:42:26 PM
http://spaces.covers.com/blog/sparty444/Tennis/01092012-Tennis-Wagering.html
packersbackers PM packersbackers
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Posted: 5/23/2012 2:49:56 PM
I've been preaching for a ATP/WTA tennis matchup section just like you have for the other major sports,,, seeing how tennis is a daily grind it would make alot of sense for this site to provide better info and coverage for one of the biggest sports followed globally. No reason why covers can't be better than livescorehunter or other clickers along with tennis head to head info, players stats, etc...... Just my two cents

Absolutxedge22 PM Absolutxedge22
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Posted: 5/23/2012 2:57:58 PM
sparty444 is the man. 
AverageAllstar PM AverageAllstar
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Posted: 5/23/2012 3:02:00 PM
My one tip for you who think you can make money at tennis capping is this:

Learn to love the sport. People tend to do things well if they enjoy doing it . The more you like the sport, the more you'll get out of it, the more you'll understand it and the better your instincts will be in making your selections. There is a science and a statistics sheet to read but tennis isn't unlike capping any other sport. You make your picks with your head, but you bet on your gut.
dr_unit PM dr_unit
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Posted: 5/23/2012 4:06:44 PM
Do not bet heavy favorites!
Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 5/23/2012 4:11:12 PM
Rankings are irrelevant rule #1
packersbackers PM packersbackers
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Posted: 5/23/2012 4:25:29 PM
Know who is a lefty, especially in the women's game,,,they are more often than not live dogs 

Try and follow as many tennis players personal websites, blogs, and twitter accounts,,,these can be pure gold when you least expect it to be,,,especially if they tweet they are not feeling well from last nights sashimi 


AverageAllstar PM AverageAllstar
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Posted: 5/23/2012 5:30:40 PM
Reading the lines:

A Heavy Favorite in Hockey/Baseball ML -235
A Heavy Favorite in Soccer ML -450
A Heavy Favorite in Basketball/Football ML -900
A Heavy Favorite in Tennis: -5000

There's no value in betting on Roger Federer to beat Daniel Brands in the 1st round of Wimboldeon since you'll win $20 on a $1000 bet and there is a slim chance you'll lose, (he lost to Mario Ancic at Wimboldeon in first round 2002 after beating Sampras the year before!)

A well know hard court player favored to win at -300 over a clay court player doggged at +225, in an indoor hard court contest is a good bet to parlay with another similar match. I started out parlaying these kinds of lines and still do well with them.

Send a personal Message to Professional 1. This guy knows garbage but he keeps it a secret. See if you can buy it out of him.

SteveWellmer PM SteveWellmer
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Posted: 5/23/2012 8:27:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AverageAllstar:


Send a personal Message to Professional 1. This guy knows garbage but he keeps it a secret. See if you can buy it out of him.



I read this at first to basically mean that he has some kind of underground info the rest of us aren't privy to. I think you meant 'he knows HIS garbage'.  And yes, he knows his garbage.
Paddington PM Paddington
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Posted: 5/24/2012 3:02:43 AM
Bet 2-0 sets not just to win the match.  Most matches, particularly women's, are 2-0 results.
Ashton_Grewal PM Ashton_Grewal
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Posted: 5/24/2012 8:33:51 AM
All great tips guys. Keep it coming!
packersbackers PM packersbackers
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Posted: 5/24/2012 8:50:48 AM
A line of 22.5 games total is the books way of telling you they think the match has a good probability to go three sets.

HOWEVER, betting grand slams are VERY VERY tricky because now all men's matches are 3/5 sets,,,so the numbers can be a bit confusing, seeing #'s in the 30's 

I'll be referring to many of Professional1's posted lines for overs as a good reference as to whats the typical number a seasoned Grand slam over/under bettor is accustomed to. 

I try to find 3 favs in early rounds in the -275/-300 range who I strongly feel the matchup favors and parlay them money line,,,usually giving me around +150 odds

I find betting spreads are truly too hard to beat long term in grand slams because you can't predict when a player gives up in one set and takes a 60 or 61 beating where he's being clearly dominated only to conserve energy for upcoming sets.

Biggest issues I see novice tennis bettors will have is to adjust to new sets of lines and #'s based on three out of five set format 
Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 5/24/2012 11:07:38 AM
packers nailed it 22.5 is the best number to bet overs for a best of 3 set match!
Absolutxedge22 PM Absolutxedge22
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Posted: 5/24/2012 6:07:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packersbackers:

A line of 22.5 games total is the books way of telling you they think the match has a good probability to go three sets.

HOWEVER, betting grand slams are VERY VERY tricky because now all men's matches are 3/5 sets,,,so the numbers can be a bit confusing, seeing #'s in the 30's 

I'll be referring to many of Professional1's posted lines for overs as a good reference as to whats the typical number a seasoned Grand slam over/under bettor is accustomed to. 

I try to find 3 favs in early rounds in the -275/-300 range who I strongly feel the matchup favors and parlay them money line,,,usually giving me around +150 odds

I find betting spreads are truly too hard to beat long term in grand slams because you can't predict when a player gives up in one set and takes a 60 or 61 beating where he's being clearly dominated only to conserve energy for upcoming sets.

Biggest issues I see novice tennis bettors will have is to adjust to new sets of lines and #'s based on three out of five set format 

Thanks for the information.
LONG-TU PM LONG-TU
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Posted: 5/24/2012 10:26:03 PM
I fades slumping players ! Its a lot easier than picking a winner from 2 good , hot players ! Always check for lines that are still up while a match has started, trust me its will worth your time. I ve won some hefty amount after the match has ended , no bullcrap here, smaller books cannot keep up with schedule changes and they paid me dearly dearly . Oh yeah sometimes i get my behind whooped
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LONG-TU PM LONG-TU
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Posted: 5/24/2012 10:27:53 PM
... too buts its fine I hold a huge edge in the long run. Good luck to all !
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OzThunder PM OzThunder
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Posted: 5/25/2012 4:54:35 AM
My advice, look for players that have a point to prove.
Up and coming players, plays coming back from injuries etc
OzThunder PM OzThunder
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Posted: 5/25/2012 2:35:08 PM
My last few days betting history:
I always ride the hot hand until they reach the Final match.
I never bet on the final match.

25/05/2012 18:38     ATP Open de Nice - B Baker     WON
    Receipt #: O/0984425/0000196/D
25/05/2012 16:00     ITF Brescia - A-K Schmiedlova     WON   
    Receipt #: O/0984425/0000195/D
25/05/2012 03:26     ATP Open de Nice - B Baker     WON
    Receipt #: O/0984425/0000194/D
24/05/2012 19:01     ITF Brescia - A-K Schmiedlova     WON
    Receipt #: O/0984425/0000193/D
23/05/2012 23:49     ATP Open de Nice - B Baker     WON
    Receipt #: O/0984425/0000192/D
23/05/2012 16:03     ITF Brescia - A-K Schmiedlova     WON
    Receipt #: O/0984425/0000191/D
23/05/2012 00:20     WTA Strasbourg - A Cornet     WON
Motherflickee PM Motherflickee
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Posted: 5/25/2012 2:53:15 PM
Bet on Baker, then trash him during the match.
Alistair PM Alistair
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Posted: 5/27/2012 5:02:58 AM
This website is your best friend in tennis capping: http://www.matchstat.com/AllFixtures/

Look into the numbers. Look HARD. By this, I don't mean to see a player has a 3-0 H2H against an opponent and is therefore a sure thing to make it 4-0. In many instances, these numbers can be skewed by;

a) Retirements
b) Old players having a good record over modern stars after they beat them as kids
c) Surfaces - Llodra on clay is a different prospect to Llodra on an indoor hardcourt

I also like to note how tight previous encounters have been. Did they go the maximum number of sets? Were the sets close? Did they play any tiebreaks? This is particularly useful when considering over/under betting. Have past matches been routs, or have they been grinds to the bitter end?

I echo the sentiment expressed earlier about fading players on a losing streak. Tennis is one of the most mentally exhausting sports there is. Unlike team sports, it's just you out there on court. Sure, you have a coach and a psychologist etc etc. but when push comes to shove, it's Player A vs Player B. It can be a lonely and unforgiving pursuit! Look for streaks - both hot and cold.

I also agree with the member who said never to play handicaps. These markets work for a number of people, but I've never gone near them and won't ever do so. Assume you back Player A +2.5 and they win the match 7-6 1-6 7-6. I've seen it happen! One bad set, and you're done. It's too much of a crapshoot.

Finally (and speaking of crapshoots), I generally avoid the WTA. That's a good way to kiss goodbye to your money over time.
Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 5/27/2012 11:29:39 AM
Don't put huge chalk in parlays
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rzagza PM rzagza
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Posted: 5/28/2012 11:41:36 AM
Tips?

Yeah ignore the WTA entirely unless you only like to play underdogs. 
Popo21 PM Popo21
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Posted: 5/28/2012 5:27:25 PM
If possible, bet In-play. It allows you to see the match and the way the players are motivated to win, especially in the smaller tournaments or matches before Grand Slams. For instance, Gulbis and Bolelli beat Murray and Del Potro last week, both at +500 because the matches were simply an exhibition and the two better players didn't care about winning.

Know which players are good in their home country. Some players, especially the French, are much better when playing in their own country.

Research junior stats for young players. I see a lot of people on betting boards taking a decent player ranked 100-200 over some unknown 18 year old ranked 350 because they assume the more established player will win. However, sometimes when you look at the stats, the 18 year old just turned pro, was the junior French Open Champion and has beaten several other good players in the past.

Check players records against big servers. Jurgen Melzer is the best example, the guy is great at returning big serves and just takes the advantage away from guys like Isner and Raonic.
Professional1 PM Professional1
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Posted: 5/30/2012 12:34:55 PM
Sick volley by Mahut to save bp.
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